Week 1 Lines released at The Greek - Page 4 - Sports Betting

To get maximum value out of your 10 points:

1. Cross as many significant lines as possible
2. Have a total as low as possible, so the relative value of the points is higher
3. Have a generally competitive game

So basically, Texas would be just about the worst possible spot to use your points, and you would get way more value out of nd/nevada playing it the other way, although I like nevada in that matchup anyway. LSU is -17 afaik, but that's still not a great value.

The best spots are:
Baylor +12 (cross 3, 7 and 10, total is 53)
Va Tech +16.5 (total is 38)
Cincy +15.5 (total 49)
Miami +16.5 (total 48)
USCe +15 (t 46.5)
Ohio +13.5 (t 46.5)
Purdue pk (50.5, crosses 3, 7, 10)
Colorado pk (54, crosses 3, 7, 10)

Value wise the best picks are Baylor, Purdue, Colorado and Virginia Tech. I'd probably take Colorado.

Looking briefly at the half-point calculator and my db, you're better off going through the zero on most of these. So going from -7 to +3, is better than going from +7 to +17.

My guess is the best bet on the board would be Bama+3.5

Quote

09-02-2009 , 08:23 PM

#78

Ichabod1985

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,292

2 Year Total Record: 500-449 +33.07 Units

NC St -5 -105 1 Unit
Bowling Green +7 -105 1 Unit
N. Texas +17 -115 1 Unit
Navy +21.5 -105 1 Unit
Minnesota -6.5 -105 1 Unit
Georgia +4.5 -105 1 Unit
Illinois -6.5 -105 1 Unit
Wake Forest -2 -105 1 Unit
UAB -5.5 -105 2 Units
BYU +22 -105 1 Unit
Virginia Tech +7 -115 1 Unit
FSU -5.5 1 Unit

Quote

09-02-2009 , 11:28 PM

#79

ShippityDooDah

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 936

*adding Boise -3(2u)

Quote

09-03-2009 , 08:40 AM

#80

Mr. 33

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 403

Troy looks pretty good vs BG. Anytime a RB/OL core looks like they can dominate the opposing D, I'm in. NT/Ball St. u58 looks good too. Looks like sh*t vs sh*t on offense.

Quote

09-03-2009 , 02:08 PM

#81

itiswell

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 699

fwiw i took South Carolina +15

Quote

09-03-2009 , 02:34 PM

#82

itiswell

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 699

anyone else liking Stanford -16.5 over Washington St.?

Quote

09-03-2009 , 07:30 PM

#83

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

lets go. got killed at monmouth today

North Texas +15 -105 1.74u
North Texas/whoever u 16 2Q -110 0.42u
North Texas/whoever u13.5 3Q -110 3.2u
North Texas/whoever u14 4Q -110 3.2u

Quote

09-04-2009 , 12:51 AM

#84

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wisdom Cube

quick enough? I had lines already made out for all of them, so rather easy to go through and shop around for half points.

NC ST -3 -115 v South Carolina bet 1.15u to win 1u (thegreek) 8.7% edge
Utah St +22 -110 @ Utah bet 1.1u to win 1u (thegreek) 1.85% edge
Boise St -5.5 -110 v Oregon bet 1.1u to win 1u (bookmaker) -23.11% edge
Troy -5 -110 @ Bowling Green bet 2.2u to win 2u (bookmaker) 11.31% edge
N Texas +19 -110 @ Ball St bet 2.2u to win 2u (bookmaker) 15.68% edge

based on pinny closing lines and sbr half-point calculator

Quote

09-04-2009 , 05:47 PM

#85

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Hawai'i -15.5 -110 v C. Arkansas (5dimes) bet 1.1u to win 1u

Hawai'i does quite well at home ATS and has the experience on the o-line that I look for in early season match-ups. Sagarin has it 16 neutral field. C Ark got lit up by Tulsa's passing last year.

Last edited by MyTurn2Raise; 09-04-2009 at 05:54 PM.

Quote

09-04-2009 , 08:45 PM

#86

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wisdom Cube

Tulane +14 -110 v Tulsa bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes) -7.65% edge

balls, I blame the team catching the swine flu

Quote

09-04-2009 , 09:32 PM

#87

gfxhjk

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Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

Tulsa/Tulane 9/4/2009 8:00 PM - (EST)
Total Points OVER 27½ -115 for 2nd Half 2.21U

Quote

09-04-2009 , 11:08 PM

#88

GoldenBears

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Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 24,202

Lost Tulane +14 but feel good about it. I'm only on 18 games this week.

Quote

09-05-2009 , 12:03 AM

#89

bld

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 116

I was on Tulane too. At least I got some of it back with my first matchbook live trading experience loading up on Tulane when they were in good shape in the early 4th quarter at +350ish and hedging out later than I should have at around -266. Seems like some real soft money available in live trading if you know what you are doing (so I wish that was the case for myself).

Quote

09-05-2009 , 08:10 AM

#90

bills217

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Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 7,462

Quote:

Straight Wager
61370147 CFB [202] TEXAS -16000 $2360.00 $14.75

Quote

09-05-2009 , 10:46 AM

#91

smbruin22

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Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 6,306

is it possible to start a new thread just for saturday games with a descriptive title? i'll leave it up to others, but this title refers more to lines coming out.

anyway, here's what i'm on early games on saturday games. sorry not all early games, but just the ones i might miss betting on when i'm out.

akron +29.5
kentucky -15
georgia-OKS UNDER 60.5
navy OHS UNDER 46.5
rice UAB UNDER 60
Nevada +14.5
SJSU +34
Georgia +5.5
Navy +22
Toledo-Purdue UNDER 46.5
minnesota -7

also did georgia moneyline (can't remember #, but i don't put it in my record anyway)

LATER GAMES i love but haven't bet yet

Ltech
byu
TAM
SDSU
L-Monroe vs. texas (how many times have i lost on this type of bet?)
alabama
utep
stanford
idaho LOL this will be fun
CMU
maryland
LSU

AND I'LL ADD SOME O/U'S LATER

sunday/monday

memphis
colorado (i'mlosing confidence over time, not sure why)
miami-F

games still trying to figure out

nebraska-FAU (is FAU that bad on road outside sunbelt??)
cincy-rutgers (this game is driving my nuts, probably just avoid)
baylor-wake

Quote

09-05-2009 , 10:48 AM

#92

itiswell

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 699

Quote:

Originally Posted by bills217

lol

Quote

09-05-2009 , 11:03 AM

#93

Lord_Strife

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lol

Quote

09-05-2009 , 11:24 AM

#94

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

Hawai'i -15.5 -110 v C. Arkansas (5dimes) bet 1.1u to win 1u 1.82% edge

meh... not sure as there is not a huge market here if there is a market price

Quote

09-05-2009 , 11:29 AM

#95

gfxhjk

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Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

yea dunno i think the line closed around 18 though. i got cent ark +17.5 about 3 minutes before kick off siince i saw the game was on tv and it went up to 18

hawaii gave them the game but cent ark sucked too much to do anything

Quote

09-05-2009 , 11:55 AM

#96

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

not much out there for the morning games

guess i'll have a lot of 2H

Minn vs Syr 1st half has more points scored than 2H + OT -110 2.99u (bodog and greek) [i have fair line at +-128.5 but this is my first season calculating this so who knows. for all the other games it about matches up dunno why this one is so off]
Minn/Syr 1Q o10 +105 1.3u (5d)
Navy/Ohio State u23.5 EVEN 2.02u (bodog)
Navy/Ohio St 2Q u13.5 +100 3.2u (5d)
Toledo/Purdue u24 -120 1H 1.4u (bodog)
Akron/Penn St 1H u29.5 -110 0.8u (5d)
Akron/PennSt 1Q u13.5 +100 0.8u (greek)

Quote

09-05-2009 , 12:10 PM

#97

Ichabod1985

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,292

W. Kentucky +31 1 Unit

Quote

09-05-2009 , 12:25 PM

#98

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsigley

18... really... I had more 'edge'

ship those sklansky bux

Quote

09-05-2009 , 12:30 PM

#99

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wisdom Cube

quick enough? I had lines already made out for all of them, so rather easy to go through and shop around for half points.

tOSU -22 -110 v Navy bet 1.1u to win 1u (bookmaker) -5.43%
Penn St -27 -110 v Akron bet 1.1u to win 1u (thegreek) 3.98%

early games are off