How the hell are we 21 point favorites over Maryland? We aren't that tight imo.

Also, Wake -2 vs. Baylor looks pretty outrageous to me. Robert Griffin doesn't play defense.

Just eyeballing these with no analysis whatsoever, I also like Cincy +6 @ Rutgers, FSU -3.5 vs Miami.

Curious to see what Bob comes up with for these games.

5Dimes released late this afternoon as well. Greek definitely beat everyone to the punch. Meanwhile, bookmaker still is claiming "where the line originates." I have bet WF -3 and some more when it went to -2. Don't understand all this Baylor love. I took Cincy +6, BYU/Oklahoma U 75 (quickly went to 70), WMU/Michigan O 50.5 (up to 53.5), San Jose St. +35, utah/utah st. U 52.5 (at 51.5 now), and FSU/Miami U 49 (48.5 now, should have bet it sooner when it was as high as 52.)

no one else is betting these? BM and 5Dimes along with others are out now.

Troy -5
Miami +5.5
Va Tech +6

sorry, I was at Lollapalooza all weekend. I'll be getting on these now.

Get your priorities straight

quick enough? I had lines already made out for all of them, so rather easy to go through and shop around for half points.

NC ST -3 -115 v South Carolina bet 1.15u to win 1u (thegreek)
Utah St +22 -110 @ Utah bet 1.1u to win 1u (thegreek)
Boise St -5.5 -110 v Oregon bet 1.1u to win 1u (bookmaker)
Troy -5 -110 @ Bowling Green bet 2.2u to win 2u (bookmaker)
N Texas +19 -110 @ Ball St bet 2.2u to win 2u (bookmaker)
Tulane +14 -110 v Tulsa bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes)
tOSU -22 -110 v Navy bet 1.1u to win 1u (bookmaker)
Penn St -27 -110 v Akron bet 1.1u to win 1u (thegreek)
Michigan -11.5 -110 v WMU bet 2.2u to win 2u (bookmaker)
Ohio +4.5 -110 v UConn bet 2.2u to win 2u (5dimes)
Notre Dame -13 -110 v Nevada bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes)
Georgia +6 -110 @ Oklahoma St bet 1.1u to win 1u (bookmaker)
Kentucky -13.5 -110 N MiamiOh bet 1.1u to win 1u (bookmaker)
BYU +22.5 -110 N/@ Oklahoma bet 1.1u to win 1u (bookmaker)
Illini -6.5 -110 N Mizzou bet 2.2u to win 2u (5dimes)
Baylor +1 -110 @ Wake Forest bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes)
EMU -5 -110 v Army bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes)
Wisconsin -15 -110 v NIU bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes)
Stanford -15 -110 @ Wazzu bet 2.2u to win 2u (5dimes)
Texas A&M -14 -110 v UNM bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes)
UTEP -5.5 -110 v Buffalo bet 2.2u to win 2u (5dimes)
Cal -21 -110 v Maryland bet 2.2u to win 2u (5dimes)
Zona -12 -110 v CMU bet 1.65u to win 1.5u (bookmaker)
POTW: UCLA -18 -110 v SDST bet 3.3u to win 3u (5dimes)
LSU -16 -110 @ Washington bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes)
Clemson -20 -110 v MTSU bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes)
Colorado -10.5 -110 v CSU bet 2.2u to win 2u (5dimes)
Rutgers -5.5 -110 v Cincy bet 1.1u to win 1u (thegreek)
Miami +5 -110 @ FSU bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes)

can you talk about Baylor and UCLA? Those are the two we don't see eye to eye on.

Wow - the game is at Wake Forest, too. Although I haven't done any research yet (Phil Steele on the way to fix that) - may just be that Wake lost everyone and Baylor gets everyone back or something. Interesting tho.

It's that time of year again fellas!!!

I kinda like Middle Tenn St. U +20 @ Clemson. I'd expect the line to move to +22-24 when the public sees Clemson @ home and jumps on them. Problem is Clemson lost a lot of players from last year, and they will struggle..... they also like to play at the level of their competition.

Eastern Michigan -5 at home against Army sounds good too. EMU's entire offense is back (not sure about O-Line); they averaged 27 points a game last year. Of course they gave up 35 a game, but that shouldn't be a problem against Army.

A lot of this is based on people falling in love with RG, but Freshman to Sophomore QB passing progression is historically negligible (0.13 ypa), and given that he ran under expectation on ints last season his passing efficiency is very likely to go down this year. It's nearly impossible for him to be much better running the ball (because he was so good), so overall it's unlikely RG improves a ton this year.

Baylor's run defense should actually be phenomenal, they have that transfer from Penn State who is supposedly a top 5 run clogging DT, they have a bunch of good linebackers and they return a lot of talent in their lb and dline.

Their pass-defense is awful though, and even when you control for the quality of their opponents, it's still terrible.

Haven't looked at Wake yet, but I imagine in this game with Riley Skinner they'll have a big edge moving the ball, and they have seen QBs like Griffin before last year (Griffin himself, Robert Marve and Russell Wilson, and to a lesser extent Chris Nickson) and are an underrated defensive team.

Plus, I have like an enormous man crush on Jim Grobe, he's easily one of the best game day tacticians in the country. I love how much sense everything they do makes, and he has a solid understanding of expected value, game theory and stuff like that which most college coaches are completely unaware of.

Really looking for a candidate to tease with ILL but I just don't see it. Possibly Miami to cross the 6? Help?

Michigan -11.5 -110 v WMU

Wat?

Yeah, I agree this is the biggest blunder on the board. Name recognition and optimism will get mich bets here,. However, I think the line should be closer to 6 than 12.

Western Michigan scares me enough with losses and Tim Hiller's ACL to make that one a non-play for me. Hiller had his 2nd ACL surgery this past offseason I believe and WMU lost 7 defensive starters including their entire secondary. They do have a Miami FL. transfer that will most likely start at safety (Doug Wiggins) but I don't believe he had any experience there either. Just too many things that worry me about this one on the Western Michigan side. If you want a MAC team in week 1 I kinda like Central Michigan at first glance...

I could sell them if I wanted, but that would be dishonest

these are all mathematical/system plays

I have Baylor -5.5 on a neutral field and UCLA -23 on a neutral field

Michigan's 10 returning blue-chip starters on offense versus WMU's 3 returning starters on defense might be what some are looking at when backing the Wolverines

Clemson gains this season from the last-- the o-line has experience now and Dye, Harper, Ellington, Korn are the real deal

the defense will be sexcellent as always

don't neglect the way the Tigers finished last year once the o-line got some PT under their belts. This is a top15 squad.

On the other hand, I do like MTSU's experience on the defensive side to hang here. They don't fit the typical patsy that can get run over by a Big conference team prototype.

yeah, Baylor makes no sense. It's so ugly that I have to bet it!
(I'm for real here.)

This is deceiving. First of all they have no returning tight end so even if you're counting the third WR and 2RBs they still only have 9 returning starters. I call it 8 returning starters. However, only Schilling and Ortmann were worth anything as far as the offensive line goes. Also, the two spots they have to replace are right tackle and QUARTERBACK. Tate Forcier, a 4star recruit freshman is starting at QB. Minor can run the ball if the line performs as well as it did at the end of last season. I just don't see the line being worth this many points against a solid Western program.

WMU got blown out in the opener against a team with slightly better talent than Michigan last year. I'd argue that WMU on paper was better than this version will be.

good health then

Kevin Koger is not returning at TE for Michigan? He had 3 starts last year and was a highly rated recruit

The o-line will be much, much, much better this year. It will be 2 seniors, 2 juniors, and 1 sophomore with starting experience. The sophomore, Molk, was a high recruit who took every snap last season.
For the record, I drool over o-lines and rate them higher than anyone else I know or have studied.

While Michigan is still a year away from being 'back' as a competitive force for the top of the conference, they are back to being bowl worthy.

Michigan is going to pound the left side of the WMU d-line. Furthermore, I see no sign that the Broncos will have success running against the Wolverines. Last year, WMU was stuffed on the ground against decent competition (Nebraska, CMU, and Illinois). With weakness at the tackles and unremarkable young talent at the receiver spots, I don't see WMU opening up a big pass attack either. Don't be surprised if the Broncos put up 14 or less.

true that... I've given up on any real insight... Thremp sucked it right out of me.
It's all numbers these days.

As a Michigan alumn I hope you're right. As a handicapper I respectfully disagree. I agree with your 14 points for Western analysis. I just don't comfortably see 25+ for this Michigan offense.

FYI, most Michigan alums grow to hate me quite a bit, so take it while you can. I'm not exactly pleased that they are getting better.

I did predict the Wolverine downfall last year way ahead of the curve... I should search those posts out to make me feel better.