Although I do agree that for the vast vast majority of players handicapping is just mental masturbation, there does exist a select few who can at least present rational arguments

BTW, I hadn't considered the centeredness of my projected season wins distributions either! Cool stuff!

I'm a Michigan guy too BTW. It's just way too hard to see them winning by two TDs as a general thought. I initially had them at -7.5, which most likely means I'm missing something.

Auburn -13.5 11u to win 10
Va Tech +5.5 7.7u to win 7u
LSU -16.5 5.5u to win 5u
Tennessee 5.5u to win 5u

The Va Tech bets are looking worse now. FML

I am interested to see how the line moves when this line comes back on. Evans is a loss for the Hokies, but they have a lot of depth in the back field, and I think this doesn't hurt them as much as the average better might think. If this moves to 7ish I will probably increase my planned bet on Tech.


Also, I think the over in the Wake Baylor game is the bet to make. Wake lost a ton on defense, particularly at LB and in the secondary, and they lost tow great players in Curry and Smith. Wake's offense is still solid and Skinner is a terrific game manager for them. Very early analysis, fwiw, but that is my early lean.

yeah, I don't see the V Tech loss of Evans as a big deal... they have a stable

they're all pretty young. could be some trouble picking up blitzes imo.

when can we expect to see 1st week moneylines go up?

Oh no, you mean Virginia Tech might struggle on offense?

This is a bit of a weird Tech team, in that they have (or had before Evans went down) more proven talent on offense than defense. Don't get me wrong, there 3 bets players are still on defense, but the defense has more holes to fill. Tech's offensive issues normally revolve around a bland game plan from Stinespring, but I think their idea is generally to keep it boring and win the game on defense and with special teams. This team has a bunch of talent at the skill positions, but then again this team also had Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan, and Clowney and did virtually nothing to showcase their talents.

Anyway, I don't know what the point of my ramblings here are. I suppose I think Tech's offense is underrated this year, and their defense will be a little overrated. ANd their special teams were mostly mediocre last year, particularly in coverage, I wouldn't expect a huge improvement.

Golden Bears, are you planning on running the pick'em contest again?

More on kurtosis with season win bets here

I'm one of the fish on Baylor. Bills speculation was right. In a nutshell, Wake only returns 4 on defense, losing their top 5 tacklers, and 15 of their 18 ints, on top of being fumble lucky last year. Baylor returns 8 on both sides of the ball from an arguably underrated (8-3 ATS) squad last year.

Laying points on NCSU-3 and Illinois-6.5 for similar reasons.
Baylor+1-110(5u)
NCSU-3-115(5u)
Illinois-6.5-115(2u)

Adding Cal-21(2u) as what I think is my last early pub fav chalk play to avoid line moves. I include Baylor since it's an 80/20 split on them at the moment.
Baylor+1-110(5u)
NCSU-3-115(5u)
Illinois-6.5-115(2u)
Cal-21(2u)

Actually I'm adding a couple dogs now

Baylor+1-110(5u)
NCSU-3-115(5u)
Illinois-6.5-115(2u)
Cal-21(2u)
*North Texas +17.5(1u)
*Toledo+12(2u)

Anyone have thoughts on Alabama/VT U38.5? I kinda see a realllllly low scoring game. VT will get to McElroy with the new OL Bama has, and Alabama won't give up much to an average VT offense. 20-13?

When I first read this, I thought it was a little weird. But I just figured it was some of your math wizardry. Then I read your post of kurtosis where you use the gamecocks as an example and I have begun to suspect you are a dirty tigger fan. While I agree Clemson will be better than Carolina this year, surely don't really think Korn is the real deal? I thought even the die hard tiggers were a little disappointed with him?

haven't read entire thread, but Ala-VT UNDER just seems completely obvious as does minnesota giving 6.5 to syracuse (haven't checked today). and famous last words, but my OBViOUS picks (small in number, of course) have done really, really well (and they're concentrated very early or bowl season)

shippidy, i'm a little concerned. respect you incredibly highly but i think i may be on the opposite or off of every single one there (although my first instinct was positive on baylor and NCSU). actually i think i'll be OFF NCSU and Baylor game and ON missouri and maryland

wow, this a great thread for me to focus my thoughts.

and i see people saying they feel strongly about a spread and i've found my historical experience on that (i.e. relying on other's opinions) is very very good

38.5 is a pretty low total for a college game. Hard for that to be an obvious under for pretty much any combination of teams.

Kyle Parker is starting, imo.

Also lol @ Tajh Boyd. Bet he wishes he stayed at WVU.

i agree, but i still think it's obvious. haven't seen someone making an official prediction (i.e. selling it) who's come close to the over.

feels like old fsu-miami games, although not that bad...........

i do know it's a very low number though

I lean under here, but I think the VT offense is better than most people think and there defense and ST are not as good as they have been historically, so it gives me pause.

Mizzou/Illinois o61 -105 bet 2.1u to win 2u

The Illini 2-deep was just released. With Garrett Edwards at strong safety and the two starting outside linebackers that won the job (Bussey and Thomas), there just isn't much to make me think the Illini will hold down Mizzou.