Bermudez -170 now leggo

what's up with the steam? Guida has faced much better competition, and while older, still will go balls to the walls old-skool. Really thought Bermudez would fade... we'll see later

Guida can't beat anyone without lay n pray. Check his record. Don't think he takes Bermudez down so....

Who's to say Bermudez has better hands than Guida? I think the overall game of Guida will defeat Bermudez. Guida has a high pace, he's hard to hit and I'm not sure Bermudez can keep up for 3 rounds the same pace that Guida brings which will open up takedowns and point scoring striking.

I won money on Cruickshank by KO/TKO last time. But I thought that his coaches at ATT would tell Jorge to take Daron down this fight and grind him out instead of standing with him, especially after seeing him head kick his last two opponents to sleep.

The fact that I literally can't think of one time when Guida has hurt someone standing? And I've been watching the guy fight since like 2008? He's certainly an expert at punching air, I'll give him that. Unfortunately, the judges count those for the same as a haymaker to the chin, so I'm still worried.

He didn't look too good at the weigh ins... he looked really drawn as if he was killing himself to shed the last few pounds. I hope it doesn't mentally faze him as he is a real professional and must realize making weight is a must in this business.

Willing to bet (w/ escrow) on Cameron diffley beig nick diaz's next opponent. Will bet any amount up to 20k at 1:1. Deciding on someone that can escrow can be up to whoever, I'd prefer it be someone in hsnl Xfer thread with flawless rep.

If I'm not mistaken he put down Tatsuya Kawajiri in their fight. But yeah, he's no show stopper precisely with his hands, I meant more the fact that he's able to outpoint people on the feet by moving around and just gracing them before moving out again to avoid damage. Say what you want about him, but he moves well on the feet.
Likewise, we haven't been given any indication that Bermudez is anything special on his feet. He seems to have normal power and normal technique. It's not like I expect Bermudez to do what Benson or Mendes did to him, those guys are leagues above Bermudez.

Except for one thing: Guida's never out-pointed anyone on the feet. It's literally never happened, every victory I can see looking over his resume in fights I can recall (Kawajiri, Hioki, Pettis, Gomi, RDA, Gugerty, Diaz) he would have won the fight without the benefit of a single strike he landed on the feet, for better or worse (I would contend that he did not deserve to beat Hioki or Pettis but that's a different story). The closest he's ever come is the Gray Maynard fight.

So basically, unless you think Guida can outwrestle Bermudez (I could see it, but I am doubtful), you're thinking a guy who is 32 and has been in the fight game for nearly 50 scraps is going to do something he hasn't done in YEARS if ever against top competition.

But yes, good call on Kawajiri, I do remember that first punch knockdown now. Recall being blown away lol

FWIW I think Guida's most clear path to victory is actually a submission

lol what? you must have some inside info to bet 1:1

Is diffley even signed yet?

Not gonna bet due to your confidence, but the fight seems a little odd.

They have a huge twitter/sherdog feud thing going but yeah it's a weird fight to make rankings wise

Added 1u Guida +156 1.5u Cruickshank +221 (I like Masvidal at evens but +221 on Cruickshank who looks better each fight is too tempting), 1u Nog +448 (he's too good a fighter to pass on at +448 in a fight that shouldn't be totally one sided like everyone thinks), 1u Brown +295 (missing weight hurts but if it goes past a round and a half I like him), plus already had a unit on Perpetuo and Cummins, 1.5u on Thompson and 2u on Guida

Actually after seeing weighins i'm firing another unit on Cruickshank

I have 30u on Perpetuo at +205. I capped him at -233 so good value for me. Was nice to see, that at the weigh ins he took the psychological advantage too. Made the school yard bully sucker punch gesture and Means flinched.



Then I also capped Cruickshank at -117 so had to bet 20u on him too at +200

Means is really underrated on the feet. He has had really bad matchmaking thus far in the ufc. However for the first time since Salas he is getting an opponent who will stand with him, and considering how hittable Perpetuo is, I expect an early KO for Means.

Also while I'm on Daron for a small amount, it is important to remember what Martins was able to do to Daron just 3 fights ago. Masvidal has a very similar skillset, and should shine in all the same areas of the fight. This really comes down to how much Daron has been able to improve.

20u/30u seems like A lot to be on these two fights. Out of curiosity what % of your roll is 1u?

I was thinking the same thing. Huge bets if going by even remotely standard definitions of what a unit amounts to for most people.

Good luck though. I really hope you win the bets.

Ok you've convinced me to fire a second unit on Perpetuo as well

I watched few of Means fights and he struck to me as just an average fighter all around. Could be wrong but he didn't shine to me at any aspect. Perpetuo on the other hand finished really strong againts Mein in his debut. I think that all the hype about his stand up skills will come out in this fight now, that the octagon jitters are thing of the past.

Daron has just looked amazing in couple of his last fights. If Rustam Khabilov can catch Masvidal with a spinning kick I think Cruickshank can too. He is too flat footed.

30u is way less than 1% of my roll.

Ahhh okay. Thought you were going really huge on those fights at 30u lol.

Good luck

Can some one explain to me what lay betting on Betfair means ? Would be greatly appreciated. Backing is bit easier to understand.

I capped Perpetuo-Means 70-30 1.43 -3.33 (-233 / +233). Backed Perpetuo at 3.05 (+205) (32.79)%. That is whopping 37,21% edge (70-32.79).

Now if I want to lay a bet I am totally confused. Do I lay Perpetuo at lower than 3.05(+205) or go higher ? Or start to lay Means altogether ? Moneyline is Perpetuo 2.92(+191) and Means 1.45 (-222) at the moment.

If you're confident in your capping don't hedge unless the line on the other side hits where you capped it at or close to it and you can lock in a big freeroll if the money at stake matters to you if it doesnt matter to you you're just not meant to make any -EV bet assuming you trust your capping

Anyone like the over 1.5 in the AJ vs Nog fight? -135 seems like an ok price especially given some people in this thread saying that there is value in Nog at +425