Akira is just awful. Poirier opened like -700 and that should be the bare minimum for this line honestly.

Steams on Noons but I did half a unit on Stout anyway at -108

Also added 1u on the u2.5 line @ -108 in the Roop/Kimura fight (if roop loses he usually gets finished plus he's fairly dangerous as well and Kimura seems to be a finish/get finished guy too) and also a 0.25u parlay of Bisping/Noke/Stout/Theodoru/OAM/u2.5 in Roop/Kimura/Walsh to win 12.5u

What does everybody think about the Elliott Benavidez fight. Does Elliott have a win here as he doesn't have ko power and other then Mighty mouse nobody is going to decision Benavidez. Thinking about a large Browne, Poirier and Benavidez parlay. Getting basically a little better then even money.

You're safe with Benavidez but I think Werdum has a better shot that most are giving him credit for.

How does Werdum win. Does he kickbox well enough to outpoint/ knock out because his bread and butter seems nullified by brownes tdd. I just don't think he has much of a win. I guess I should watch the roy nelson fight because of the highlights ive seen that was his best standup performance

1 unit on Noke and Stout to win.

Hopefully the card delivers a few good fights.

He dismantled Nelson with his kickboxing and if it ends up on the ground he's the most dangerous sub fighter at HW (certainly from the guard).

Werdum won't look to take Browne down like gabriel did he's far more likely to just pull guard which is more difficult to defend against.

He's certainly no lock but a big danger in a 3 fight parlay that only pays even if it comes off.

Watched the nelson fight. He dominated the first round controlling the distance with the thai plum, clinch and landed some great shots. I don't quite like the 225 price being laid as much. But he did gas the last 2 rounds and those were far more competitive. The clinch and plum I think will be nonfactors vs browne so it should be a distance kickboxing match unless werdum tries to pressure.

i think you're underestimating how tough werdum is to finish, he's been fighting for over a decade and only been stopped once by a punch that could have possibly KO'd a horse. it's not like he's been facing weak competition with no power either.

2.25u - Stout + Bisping (+205)
1.2u - Kaufman + Jimmo + Poirier + Noke (+250)

I think there's a fair chance that both guys find the fight at WW to be a good career move. Both are def. not in the title picture nor will they ever be. Therefore they are both fighting for their jobs and to extend their career. Without the weight cuts both fighters will have better cardio and both will be able to give a better performance. If the fights a good one the loser won't get cut.

Loser prob won't get cut anyway unless the fight is really bad, both are technically coming off a win despite bad recent performances so it'd have to be a single-loss streak cut - Noons is in more danger than Stout i'd imagine since Stout has always been a company guy and is 12-8 or something in the UFC whereas Noons is like 2-5 in his last 7 from memory while Stout's been trading wins and losses - Stout's never going to fight for a title or anything but he isn't super expensive to keep and is a decent gatekeeper to the top 25 or so.

If my parlay isn't live going into the main card I might do another quarter unit parlay on my five main card picks (Bisping/Noke/Theo/OAM/Poirier), if it's still live i'm probably done betting the card. I added another half unit on Noke today when he was -106 that should do me.

Stout has fought like 30 fights at LW, with no cardio issues. Would be surprised if he left for WW permanently. Also Dana seems to really like him, so don't see him going anywhere win or lose.

Think Noons retires with a loss.

Mark Bocek ITD -127. Hands down the best bet of the card.

Still don't really understand the Boetsch odds, seem really off at +650, Rockhold is between -900 and -1450 seems crazy for a relatively competitive fight. Would expect Rockhold to be closer to -400

Yes, that fight was not competitive.

Bisping looked pretty angry at Kennedy at the weigh-ins, hopefully he can give Kennedy the beatdown he has coming to him after the way he talked his way into the fight - I have no idea how anyone thinks Kennedy is the face and Bisping is the heel in this feud, Kennedy has acted like an idiot from the start. Bisping looked bigger and stronger than Kennedy, hopefully that bodes well for his takedown defense as I really don't see Kennedy outstriking him

Some pretty major steam on Noke, Roop, Poirier, OAM, Bisping and Theodorou - looks like i'm on the fight side of everything so far

3u - Bocek ITD -127
1u - Westcott +185
1u - OAM -105
1u - Roop +100
1u - Walsh/Indich o2.5r +100

1st round was a demolishing. 2 and 3 were competitive as both were gassed and Nelson is obviously one of the better guys at this point.

Wtf is up with the Poirier line. -1100 money line, -220 itd and +250 decision. Wow

Well he's not going to lose barring a random DQ or something so there's that

Added 1u to win 0.5u on Poirier fight u2.5 rounds and a 0.2 to win 0.25u parlay on Walsh/Bocek/Gagnon just for the sweat

Lines for Saturdays card just opened.

Like Cerrone -130, and RDA +160

Barboza + 100 looking good, went down fast to -130

Added partial unit sweats on the bocek fight under and on grujic

Anyone got a link to a stream for early prelims mind PMing me?