Agree with Swoop, Pearson is going to box Trujillo's ears off I think.

Really like the Sterling -145 line. He should get the job done here.

Smith -135 also seems like a good spot.

is Alex White any good? Martins kinda sucks was getting destroyed by Jeremy Larsen before getting a random fluky r3 TKO

Also Viana is really good, like had TJ Dillashaw in trouble in their fight and otherwise unbeaten good. No way in a million years I bet against him against a non top 10 opponent

So far i'm thinking of firing Viana, White, Miller and Healy

The Barboza/Dunham under 2.5 is tempting too if at plus money (Barboza will dominate and Dunham is finishable or get hit on the chin and knocked out/subbed while rocked)

Yeah White seems pretty solid. Probably grab him ITD in this one. Straight up seems like a profitable play too though.

Outside of the durran fight Viana has yet to do anything noteworthy. He is a mid level ufc fighter that has gotten easy matchmaking (outside of Dillishaw)

Sterling is a legit prospect, and probably fighting for a title in a year or so. Having a number beside his name or not is irrelevant.

Sterling probably going to be my big bet on this card.

Gossip regarding the Aldo withdrawal: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/7/11...mpion-mma-news

The fighters managers were called by the commission telling them there would be random PED testing for the fight (they always inform the camps to ensure access). Within 24hrs of the call Aldo withdrew due to injury and is now asking for the fight to be moved to Brazil. Due to the way it's being viewed I'll be surprised if the UFC allows it to switch to the Rio card.

Regardless of the PED issues, with the timeline of the injury, moving Aldo to the Rio card seems like the most logical thing to do.

Would be surprised if they didn't do it due to this.

Aldo immediately accusing Mendes of juicing when they got in their little fight is even more hilarious now

There's just something about Aldo that makes me hate him more than almost any other fighter in the UFC

I think it's a pretty safe assumption that Aldo is juicing after this

They really need to just announce that there will be olympic level testing for every fighter on every card from now on and eat the expense, or quit testing altogether and let everyone juice to the gills on TRT or HGH whatever else they want to take. Obviously the former option is preferable there.

They had better not let Aldo defend his title in Brazil again after dodging testing, i'd expect them to randomly test him throughout camp after dodging tests like this (and to be fair do the same to Mendes)

Maybe I just choose to neglect accusations like this. However Aldo had been champ for a long time and has fought in multiple countries/states. I'm sure he has been tested quite thoroughly through out his career.

Also Aldo has had a history with this type of injury, and injuring himself during training camp . I think there is a good chance that this is just a coincidence.

Although with Chael/Wandy/Vitor/Bagnatinov all in the past month or so, getting hard to trust anyone I guess.

Prior to this year (GSP kicking up a fuss) no fighters had been tested for EPO or HGH. EPO is the go to for fighters with cardio issues.

I'm sure he's not on "steroids" testosterone etc. But the previous tests only looked for that and shouldn't be taken as evidence for the other products.

Jerrod Sanders was a really high level wrestler at ok st, was ranked #1 or 2 going into NCAAs his senior season, though didn't perform well. Think he is a good bet vs Cedeno.

Was looking at sanders too. Cedeno is much better than he showed in his debut.. And I always hate betting in fighters making their debut, so probably going to stay away.

If sanders can avoid the octagon jitters he should take this one though.

Wonderboy vs Cote announced, would love to get Wonderboy at -150 or better here

Looks like Sterlings out to -200, Viana to +175ish and climbing

Will definitely be firing Viana late. He's way, way, way better than anyone thinks and if he wasn't hugely undersized on the TUF Brazil season that Rony Jason won he would have won it (he lost to Jason because of size difference and is now fighting a weight class down)

I like Dunham and Tibau. Feel I usually have a pretty good read on these two fighters as well, tho I did back Dunham against Cerrone.

2u miller

Dunham concerned me as he'll trade to happily and there's no way he wins this one standing. May be some value now he's +2xx though

I have always appreciated Donald Cerrone, the guy is a bad arse period, he has a new set of wings trying to dig himself out.

I just don't think any BODY period is stopping Cerrone,


There is some thing special about a prime Donald Cerrone, guy is brutal absolutely lethal weapon material.

Any one got any good insight into miller vs cerrone? Miller at 9/4 is pretty sick for miller?

Cerrone has the fans and that's created the value here. Should be at evens looking at records and some of cerrones performances.

Cerrone was being schooled by Barboza prior to the KD he's very luck to be on this current streak.

so what do you mean elliot10181 and thanks for sharing your views, you have 2u on miller which is you showing some level of confidence but in the other hand your saying he is lucky to be on a streak?


Man the way I feel about it, I would not like to be betting against Donald Cerrone, I respect your gambling and picks and values but this is a possible primed up Donald Cerrone, 2 good rounds of Donald Cerrone counts for a lot never mind if he is bringing the amount for a shot at the tittle?

has to be safe plays than betting against Donald Cerrone?

Cerrone has looked GOOD recently. The performance he put on against Dunham was probably the best of his career. Dunham gets overlooked, but he is a tough dude that should be in the top 15, and Cerrone put a beating on him. Then he fought Martins, who is a future contender, and put him away in the first with a highlight reel headkick. Followed that with a sub win over Barboza.

Miller has looked pretty good lately too, but against much worst competition. Fighting Camoes who was coming off a decision to Guillard, and Yancy who was 1-1 and was getting outboxed by Yves before the KO.

Also this is Millers first ever 5 round fight. That's not a positive for him as he just gassed terribly vs Healy, and showed signs of fatigue vs Lauzon. Where Cerrone is in great shape every time, is super active, and training at altitude.

Overall i just don't see the value on Miller here. Price is to high to bet cerrone here though.


Edit: Also the Barboza fight is irrelevant as Barboza is on of the top striker in the division, who mixed up his attacks and uses great footwork. Miller is not that. Miller will fight absolutely nothing like Barboza, and Cerrone should have the edge on the feet.

nice post yoyobo, appreciate that thoughtful insightful post.

So far I like

Viana +173

Only 2 losses were to Rony Jason a weightclass above his natural class and TJ Dillashaw who he had badly hurt who is now the champ. Has looked great in all of his fights where the other guy wasn't much bigger than him - Sterling is a great prospect too but Viana will be the best guy he's fought. I'd cap this at more like evens. Expect it to keep rising because Viana has flown below the radar and Sterling is considered the bigger prospect and will look physically more intimidating at the weigh-in.

Miller +226

The price is just too high, Cerrone has been tapped before a few times and Miller is arguably the best submissions guy at LW, Cerrone is the more dangerous fighter overall and more athletic with better standup but he's inconsistent and prone to making mistakes and Miller can capitalise. I'd cap this at more like -150 for Cerrone, so value is on Miller. Again, will wait to fire since Cerrone is the bigger name.

White -155

I think Martins sucks as a fighter. That's the depth of my analysis here. He got beat up by Jeremy Larsen before a random lucky r3 finish.

Healy +114

Tibau should be so much better than he is, i'm sick of betting on him and him letting me down. I feel like if you put my brain in Tibau's body with his skillset i'd be able to make a run at being top 15 but he just doesn't gameplan well and is so inactive so often and he just underperforms.

Healy's had some bad performances (Green and Masvidal, although Masvidal is legit) and some good (Miller) but overall is the more well rounded fighter. I don't trust Tibau to be active enough to win a decision and it's likely to go to decision and I expect Healy to be the one coming forward. Unless he lets Tibau take him down repeatedly he should win in theory and his job is on the line.

Will only need 2/4 to win to lock in profit for the card

Also slightly tempted on Barboza but his chin

Might fire small on all 4 now and go bigger on all of them if the lines improve

2u on all four of the lines in previous post plus 0.5u on all four in a parlay at +29xx

Barboza and Dunham are both so much more talented than their fights have shown, Barboza has the chin and Dunham just loses fights he's supposed to win so even though I want to fire the fight tempted to stay away

I think Healy is the worst of the four bets above, I quite like the other 3 at the prices I got but trying to keep my bet sizes equal since i've gotten crushed in a few cards lately due to the big ones losing and small ones winning

Also at the next card quite like the prices on Sampo and Brandao, although I want McGregor to win

Hi

I meant Cerrone was lucky to be on a streak, it was a miracle he won the Barboza fight. He was taking an beating and couldn't have been luckier that a jab of all things managed to stun Barboza.

Miller is a top LW with great subs, prior to the Dunham Cerrone fight everyone would have been on him here. Their losses they've had have been virtually against the same guys and there wins are relatively close in terms of competition.

I'm not saying Miller will win only that +226 is a good value bet when Cerrone has miles on the clock and took a pounding last time out. If it goes to the ground Miller should have as big an edge as Cerrone has on the feet.

I would take Cerrone at + money but feel at this price it is the bet of the card. Cerrone's cult following and exciting style have created value.

Feel this is a card for the favourites. I don't see a single dog I expect to win. Only one I see with any value is Mafra, and even then I'm not sure there is enough to play it.

Actually just convinced myself to parlay every favourite outside of Story for +7030

Also like Brando at +320. Going to wait until weighins for him though, also price will probably rise.

Turns out I got -152 on White not -155. That works I guess.