Think cerrone will be a small favorite but i really like barboza here, He's huge for lw and i prefer his standup.

Cerrones striking is great vs grapplers but pettis and Diaz ran rings around him.

Spong Anderson silva'd his leg tonight in glory. Shattered his shin so that's wsof most interesting prospect out for the foreseeable. Hope he can recover quickly!

First two plays of the next card

4.5u to win 2.7u on Bisping
0.5u to win 0.5u on Noke

Lean Barboza over Cerrone I think but both are so inconsistent I have no idea. I think I like fight doesn't go the distance if it's at plus money as well. Would definitely take either guy at +200

Barboza should win. As elliott said anyone who can kickbox and has a chin has pretty much been able to exploit Cerrone in the past.

The has a chin part - I mean Barboza's chin isn't bad but Varner KO'd him and Castillo had him almost out and would have finished him if he didn't grab the fence to defend the choke

Will be very interesting to see where the lines open, hard to tell who the favourite is going to be

2 rncs escaped using the fence in that first round.... Gutting

But tbh Danny hit him really hard both standing and on the ground in 1st and he recovered much better than I expected. Most fighters wouldn't have made it through that assault.

My bets so far for next UFC:

Bisping (-165) 3.3u to win 2u
Noke (-105) 1.05u to win 1u

Wanna go bigger on the count but with his 1 year break I have to control myself. Patrick Cote is jst bad fighter. So many holes in his game, he just came into MMA at the right time so gained lots of name recognition. Noke should dominate this.

Record: 23-10 +21.77u

Gluck all.

Glad to see we're on the same two bets this time.

Anyone else liking Werdum/Browne doesnt go the distance at -240? I mean unless it's 5 rounds of wall and stall one guy is basically always getting finished, either Browne hurts Werdum standing or Werdum taps him on the ground most of the time and in 5 rounds whichever fighter is losing should probably gas and get finished

Cerrones the type of fighter like Melvin Guillard where u don't know how he's going to mentally show up. He has all the tools but sometimes just isn't there mentally. In my heart I hope he wins but my bet will be decided by the betting line. The winner of this puts himself in top 3 contention and with any injury could easily fill in for a title shot.

Great bet can't see it going 5 both are too dangerous

Barboza is going to kill Cerrone

Hmmm great point Barboza's chin isn't the most reliable.

-

I think I like Sam Stout at -120 vs Noons, even though in theory this is a tailor made matchup for Noons and Stout is on the decline, Noons has declined probably even more and looked so so so terrible against a washed up G-Sot in his last fight that I can't help but think Stout decisions him. If the fight goes to DEC line is -200 or better that's a super lock too.

I think i'll get on Kimura/Roop doesn't go the distance if I can get even money on it

I like Poirier ITD or u2.5 if I can get it at close to evens

I haven't watched TUF Nations much but from what I hear the value is on OAM and Theodoru but both have been steamed a bit already so it may be gone who knows

Happy with my Bisping and Noke bets, will probably add Stout and the two u2.5 bets mentioned and maybe a parlay on the five of them as well. It's a shame Noons and Stout have declined so much would have been really excited to see it a couple years ago

Agree with you on the Stout line. He just throws a little more volume than Noons does, which should help on the judges score cards in which should be a very close fight. Also Stout seems more inclined to mix in takedowns as of late.... Though Noons did look great vs G-Sot (the best he has looked in a long time) and is the only thing stopping me from firing a couple units.

Watched all the TUF nations fights, and don't see Theodoru as a favorite. He likes to grinds fights out against the cage, looking for takedowns, however he gave up position vs guys much worst than him on more than one occasion. Westcott is pretty mcuh the same type of fighter, however he was much more aggressive and looking for subs. Also Westcott looked good in the clinch vs Daniel Kelly ( a judo blackbelt who competed in the Olympics) so expect him to win the position battle, and finish with a submission.

Caught the opening lines last night and currently have Westcott +185, OAM -105, Roop +100.

I'm rooting for Akira Corossani, but I don't really see how he challenges Poirer. This is a mismatch, they're so far apart in rankings and this is basically a gimme fight for Poirer. I mean, how does Akira get a top 10 guy?

What fight were you watching Noons looked horrendous against Sot, Sot's prime ended in the Siver fight and he has looked awful since, looked terrible against Noons and Noons still barely outboxed a grappler who can't wrestle

If the Noons that fought Sot shows up, i'd take Stout at -300 even though he has declined too, if Noons fights well it's a lot more in his favour but I have zero faith in Noons at this stage of his career

Corassani is technically on a 3 fight winning streak (granted one is a SD and one is a DQ) and he was one of the most memorable guys from his season of TUF... but more importantly, they want Poirier to be on a winning streak as a fresh challenger for Aldo or whoever the champ is somewhere down the line (potentially even next after the Mendes rematch) because he's fun to watch, marketable and has good fights - the only other fight that would make sense for Poirier is a KZ rematch really and that's pretty high risk even though i'd narrowly favour him in a rematch because if he loses he's kinda done as a contender.

If Akira does the impossible he's won 4 in a row including a top 10 win in Poirier so they can give him a #1 contender fight (which he will almost certainly lose) and hey if he wins that it's 5 in a row with two top 10 wins so whatever he's earned the title shot.

He's basically the lowest risk option who is still technically on a winning streak to keep Poirier active and winning and if he somehow does win then he's semi-marketable himself

just got Stout at (-105) I think he'll be more active for 3 rounds get the decision. Always been a Stout fan anyway . Might paylay it with Bisping...

I like Stout as well. His rock solid chin is still there... but his speed has def. declined. Loser gets cut fight imo.

Porier is going to win this ITD. He's a great "real fighter" and has a bright future. A rematch with KZ would be great but it comes with too much risk for the UFC as they'd like Porier to get a Title Shot and the KZ already had his... therefore a loss for Porier would be bad from a business standpoint.

I like Noke and Bisping as well.

Really? I actually forgot who he was until I read his wiki page. Mixed in withDodson,Dillishaw,Brando,Bermudez,Caraway,Bedfo rd,Delrome,Siler,and Goudinot.. he was lost in the bunch. Only thing that jogged my memory was him tapping out and denying it.

One of Noons biggest weaknesses is his slow pace on the feet. Stout is going to outthrow him and probably get a nod from judges that he may or may not deserve.

http://www.ufc.com/news/Stout-Noons-...er%3A+UFCNews&

Stout vs Noons moved to WW.

Would have to guess that one guys was injured or sick and was unable to make weight. Completely avoiding this fight now, unless it comes out which one of them had the problem

I'm guessing we'll be able to tell when the steam hits,

Weird part is it says the "fighters" requested it. Would be interesting if both thought they'd miss weight. No fighter would sensibly ever just let the other guy off as it's an auto 20% bonus.

In terms of ability, he was behind those guys (and still is) on the show. But it was mostly his antics that got him some reputation. And he did KO his way into the house.