Yeah obviously they got the plus and minuses mixed up

Guess we will see tonight. I am forseeing a rerun of Randy Coture's not to bad for an old man interview from Hendo. Hendo lost 2 split decisions to top tier competition. Vitor is so over rated IMO.

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Hendo/Belfort
No vig line +220/-220

Belfort's a beast at this stage of his career and Hendo relies too heavily on his H-bomb. Speed will be the difference here, I don't think Hendo can take a Belfort blitz. I expect Hendo to take his first TKO loss tonight. That said, it's a steep price and Belfort has been known to slow down as the fight goes on - but so has Hendo. If this goes outside the first round and Hendo hasn't taken significant damage it's anyones game. The price is too steep for a major play though i'd say.

Prediction: Belfort by TKO, round 1 (4:22)

No bet (although I have Belfort in a couple parlays)

Stephens/Jason
No vig line: +183/-183

Jeremy Stephens is the definition of good but not great fighter. He looked good vs Pettis, but Pettis also had an off day. He's clearly on the tail end of his prime, or past it even and Rony Jason was the best guy on season 1 of TUF Brazil which is probably the strongest season of TUF since TUF seasons 1/5. Jason will have the better cardio and grappling and the striking will be close. I wouldn't be surprised if Jason wins by TKO, Sub or Dec.

Prediction: Jason by decision (30-27x3)
Bet: 3.2u Jason (I got -187ish average)

Laflare/Ponzinibbio
No vig line: -129/+129

Laflare beat up Ben Alloway, but Ben Alloway just isn't that good or well rounded. He's a semi-UFC caliber fighter. I didn't know who Ponzizibbio was but it turns out he beat the winner of TUF Brazil 2 in the semi finals and then got injured and was unbeaten on the show. So yeah, he's actually pretty good... and he's a dog... and it's in Brazil.

Prediction: Ponzinibbio by TKO, r2
Bet: 3u at around +125 average from memory

Thatch/Thiago

Paulo Thiago is a decent fighter with a weakish chin who is slightly past his prime. Brandon Thatch is a hard hitting prospect who looked impressive in his debut. This one isn't heading to decision, folks, we're going to have to ignore the Brazilians in Brazil rule.

Prediction: Thatch by TKO, R1
Bet: No bet, price too steep and Thatch isn't that well tested to lay that price, plus decision robberies if it goes to decision etc. - got him in one of my parlays though.

Pokrajac/Cavalcante
No Vig Line: +294/-294

Pokrajac is the definition of 'lower-mid level UFC fighter'. He's the gatekeeper to the top 25 or so and while Cavalcante's ceiling is much higher, we saw in the Thiago Silva fight his floor is pretty low as well.

I expect Cavalcante to sub him here since he looked okay in the weigh ins this time, but if he's in as bad shape as he was vs TSilva he's getting knocked out.

Prediction: Cavalcante by submission, r1
Bet: None, although I lean Pokrajac at the price and have him in one parlay

Mutante/Sarafian
No vig line: -165/+165

The fight that should have been the MW final on TUF Brazil 1 before Sarafian got hurt - Sarafian looked the better of the two on TUF Brazil but had his hype derailed by CB Dolloway in a close SD loss in his UFC debut. He rebounded nicely, while Mutante has been crushing cans.

Mutante has a decent size advantage, but Sarafian's probably more well rounded and with better technique - Mutante is the better athelete and bigger guy though.

I think the line is around accurate.

Pick: Mutante by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Bet: No bet, going to cheer for Sarafian and enjoy and hope he can do it but I think the line's about right.

Salas/Tavares
No vig line: +210/-210

Tavares is a good but not great fighter who was on a nice run before getting manhandled by the Eagle, Khabib Nurmagomedov who is probably a top 5 LW. Salas is in here to get Tavares the win, but if his psyche is too damaged after the beating he took from Khabib he could have an off night. Still, Brazilians in Brazil, Salas got knocked out by Tim Means and he has no wins over anyone good. He's in here to get Tavares a victory. Tavares has wins over guys like Stout and Fisher, he's a mid level grinder and Salas isn't, plus homecrowd etc.

Pick: Tavares by TKO, r2
Bet: No bet yet but the more I think about it the more likely I am to bet Tavares. He's in a parlay or two though.

Martins/Cruickshank
No vig line: +105/-105

Honestly, I don't know enough about Martins to cap this. His record is meh, but Cruickshank's only wins have come over bad-ish guys who will stand with him. Cruickshank should be the fav in theory, but he's in hostile territory and Martins could be better than I think. He has some wins over okay guys, but I guess Cruickshank does too.

Pick: Martins by decision
Bet: No bet, don't know enough to cap accurately. Lean Martins because when in doubt, take the lower tier Brazilian over the lower tier American.

Akmehdov/Perpetuo
No vig line: -170/+170

I usually love betting on Russians. Akmehdov's record while unbeaten is padded with cans and he has no good wins. He didn't look particularly athletic at weigh-ins and Perpetuo is one of the more underrated guys from his season of TUF. Call me crazy but I like 'Bodao' to get it done despite his year and a half layoff.

Pick: Perpetuo by TKO, r2
Bet: 3u Perpetuo at an average of something like +155

Pepey/Sicilia
No vig line: +100/+100

I have no idea why this line is at evens. Sicilia is a terrible fighter with a puncher's chance and while Pepey has no real killer instinct and Sicilia does, skillset wise Pepey is much more well rounded and technical and he should be able to grind out a decision or submit Sicilia if it goes to the mat. I expect the first round to be close, then Pepey gets him down and either taps him or grinds him out on the ground to victory.

Pick: Pepey by decision (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
Bet: 3u Pepey at around -102 average

Ortiz/Tome
No vig line: +115/-115

My early pick of the card, I got Tome at -106 before he was backed in to -135, although it's started to move back now.

Tome has a great record against granted mostly weakish competition but he's fought some okay guys and won the first round against Lineker who is top 10 before getting caught. Ortiz recently lost to a nobody who lost his next three fights.

I think Tome will pick him apart enroute to a dominant decision

Pick: Tome by decision (30-27x3)
Bet: 5u Tome -108 average

Pick of the card: Tome

Bets: Pepey, Perpetuo, Jason, Ponzibibbio

Leans at current price but not quite enough to play: Pokrajac, Tavares, Belfort

No play: The rest

im more fading pepey as i havnt been impressd at all, and sicilia has heavy hands i think he lands and finishes, as for the judging ya i agree but i think if it goes to dec. pepey prlly won the fight neway

Please someone be a good soul and post a link to the facebook fights.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QtaZ...layer_embedded

Check your PMs Sect7g, didnt get the first bet on as line had closed but the rest are on - only had money on pinnacle so you got current pinnacle prices, gl

Along with my big bet on Hendo, I also have a decent sized bet of 3u on Rony Jason. So at least we are on the same page there.

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10-9 Jose Maria Tome, both guys landed takedowns but Tome landed the better shots standing + the guillotine attempt to end the round

Low blows are just getting ridiculous in mma, it's like 2+ per fight these days

vitor could have a solid chin as well hes only ever been knocked out twice and once was anderson silva. Vitor is a steal at -200 add in hes in brazil free money.

tip of the day: instead of betting hendo dont and buy your loved one something instead of u burning money

Close round, not sure which way it went, the elbow on the ground was the best strike of the round but Tome got the better of the opening 90 seconds and got the only sub attempt of the round.

In the US i'd say they score it for Ortiz, in Brazil it's 50/50, i'm not sure which way I score it personally, I think it might be Ortiz but i'm tempted to score it for Maria Tome because he won most of the round despite getting cut and taken down

I vow to one day watch a UFC event in the Brazil. These fans are just awesome... and so impartial I might add.

Wow Tome has to have the worst cardio at FLW

All 3 sherdog judges have r2 for Maria, I didn't really expect that I thought I might be in the minority in thinking he did enough

Edit: fml

Wonder whether he would have got that decision

Very tilting.

sigh he was giving thumbs up to the ref

I agree... he screamed to tell the ref that those shots were at the back of the head... these refs never have the balls to take a point away or interfere.

The ridiculous thing is he was in zero danger of being knocked out and was possibly going to win a decision with 1 min left

I have a feeling there may be some martingale tilt coming if I don't win my next one

Daron Cruickshank thinks he's Hulk Hogan apparently

At least 1/3 of those shots were back of the head. They dq'd Sakara and Silva for less, here it doesn't matter. Some consistency would be nice, the guy was obv complaining about back of the head strikes but the dumb ref prob thought he was screaming in pain.

Very frustrating to get a questionable stoppage there given it would have come down to how the judges scored round 2.

Hopefully I get a robbery in my favour to make up for it

Pretty sure Maria would have gotten the nod if 3rd wasn't scored a 10-8. He had the kd and ended in the deep guillotine in the 2nd + it is brasssiu.

Martins is huge for LW, seems to have good striking too

Very surprised Cruickshank hasn't been finished yet

Martins looks impressive, 10-9 obv

Hulk Hogan will show up in the 2nd Or not... nice finish by the Brazilian. Quickshank ended in quicksand when it hit the ground.