+2u for the card (thanks Jake), +30.37u YTD on posted picks.

Also, putting 1u on Gonzaga ITD +300 at 5d....Swoop's getting to me

Man palhares getting the boot bums me out

Justified decision, but I've always really liked watching him fight. The way he drops for those legs is a thing of beauty.

I agree on both points. I was excited to see who they would match him up with next. His fight with Belcher is one my favorite fights. But he's been doing this too long.

BTW, here is the video of Dana saying he is going to cut him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYfe07LVDW4

Put a bit more on Gonzaga

8u at an average of +214 now

Honestly I feel like I should have 20+ units on this, I think it's the best MMA bet of the year. All of the opening line steam was on Jordan but it's come back towards Gonzaga slightly since - I just don't know why he's an underdog and I feel like I must be missing something. I really really really love the underdog lines on the next card, I feel like betting Gonzaga, JDS and Nelson are all value - I actually expect Gonzaga and JDS to go 2/2 almost as often as 0/2 and Nelson is a pure odds play thing, I mean he has a good punchers chance and at +425 that's fine at HW - I actually kinda like Sanchez at +500 too just because Melendez is slightly overrated and if Sanchez cuts weight properly this fight should be competitive and if you can get a competitive fighter at +500 that's always a good thing

Only fav I like is Dodson, don't think any FLWs can/will beat him except for Benavidez and MM both being smallish favs over him

Probably because Gonzaga has a propensity to being KO'd and Jordan has pretty heavy hands. You seen to be on a suicide mission wanting to bet Sanchez and JDS and Nelson. Guess you are hoping for a lot of one shot KOs

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Melendez overrated, no way! Guys coming over are underated. Strikeforce guys, WEC guys(LW,ww,lhw) all came in with a lack of respect

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Sanchez being +450 or whatever seems a little ridiculous. Granted Melendez is better everywhere but Sanchez has a tendency to make things close with his grinding style sometimes, I don't think it's out of the question that he steals 2 rounds.

I don't see any way Cormier loses to Nelson though.

Correction, Sanchez used to make things close. He has fallen off a lot and his maniac cardio also has.

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Never really been the same guy since BJ Penn tooled him.

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Don't think Nelson and Sanchez Is worth it.. However won't be betting against them at that price either.

Really liking gonzaga as well, however bet of the year is a bit much... Think this is a flip.

Not sure what I'm going to do on main yet, I like JDS. Just not sure how much to bet, or If I should bet.. There first two fights have made this really hard to call correctly.

Line for JDS seems about right, maybe a smidge high but Cain is the better fighter. It's KO or bust and probably early KO or bust.

Looks like I'm heading to sac for the December card. Any of you guys gonna be there?

A flip is pretty damn good when he's +200 (or +215ish average I got)

Ended up with just under 8u on him, pretty happy with that unless the price gets back to +220 or something

I like the logic. This is exactly why I loved Shields @+265. To me, Shields was an overall slight fav. Got scoffed at ITT when I said he was a better grapler, and thought the striking was a flip. After the fight, I realized striking was about 55-45. Overall, with even that adjustment the fight was 50-50 with +265. It was one of my bets of the year in terms of odds being off.



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Of course the last time I loved a line it was Franklin @ -300 over Cung Le and that went bad :/

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I'm going to be at the other December card if anyone's going to be there (the Australia one obviously)

hm i think for JDS ... he should have a little bit better cardio than last time (hard to not gas when being battered tho) and most importantly he has to punish Cain everytime he misses a shot ( he was on his knees several times when missing a shot) - try to hit him with 1-3 shots and move away again.

Cain should basically do the same as in the first fight. Maybe mix some high kicks in in the later stages when jds is only a zombie. he should also go for some safe submissions like armtriangles or rear naked chokes. I think he could very well stop jds by strikes this time.

But I am still not sure what to bet lol... huuuum...

i don't think JDS gassed last fight.. nor did he completely outwork him. I just don't think JDS ever recovered from that big shot he ate early.

as far as I'm concerned they each won a fight by landing a big punch in the first round. I don't think their second fight is anything alike if not for that one big punch. and if this is gong to come down to who lands that first big shot first, i think JDS is a fav.

not sure how much give i should add to my line when factoring that cain can just grapple him to a victory. Either way, i think JDS at +190 is valuable...and that line will only get better as the fight comes closer

I don't know if JDS wins over half the time but I def like him to win at least a third of the time so I think i'll take him at +200

Quite liking both JDS and Gonzaga at that price range since I think both fights are basically flips

So transgender fighter Fallon Fox lost by TKO today - honestly a good thing as if she ever fought for a title it would kinda bring WMMA into disrepute and turn casual fans off the sport given the whole being born male thing

I totally agree. I see so many people (not necessarily in this thread) talking about how Cain dominated him for 5 rounds, which is true but I think meaningless when handicapping their upcoming fight. That one punch severely diminished JDS.

It's kind of like if JDS broke both his hands in the first minute but lasted all 5 rounds. Rounds 2-5 wouldn't mean much when trying to handicap a rematch.

If it comes down to who lands the first big shot I tend to like JDS to win even more - although there's the wild card of Cain landing a takedown before either guy lands a big punch

Yeah, do we all agree that JDS has both the better chin and more power? Even if so, it says nothing about who has the better ability to actually land/avoid the big shot in the first place. And, as you said, Cain has the wrestling weapon.

0.5u to win 27.5u parlay for the next card

Dodson, Nelson, JDS and Gonzaga

I honestly think i get 3/4 a lot. 4/4 is a real long shot, and good chance i'll arb some if it gets to the final leg - obviously Nelson wins the least but he's also the longest price by far. I'll probably add four 3-way parlays as well.

That's added to my 7.5-8u or so on Gonzaga

Yes, clearly JDS has the heavier hands and more power.

Cain has takedowns which means he has an increased chance of landing that big shot via GNP, but JDS has a better chance of surviving that shot giving him a chance to come back from the shot, and he also has a slightly better chance of landing that big shot while the fight remains standing.

My brain logically sees Cain as the favourite but both times these guys have fought the guy who was expected to lose ended up winning and either guy can win on any given day

I feel like Cain isn't a bet until at least the -120 region, I feel like the true line might be Cain -130 or something? My gut says JDS will pull it off and knock Cain out standing again but my analysis of the skillsets sees Cain as a small favourite because of the wrestling edge - a lot comes down to which of them is in a better place mentally and also on how much better Junior's cardio is after the last fight - I don't think Cain is going to knock him out cold, he can win via GNP TKO maybe but the longer JDS has cardio the more time he has to knock Cain out even in a fight he may be losing at the time

Hm I think Cain has the better chance to land that shot since he has the wrestling threat and jds usually has his hands low (thats one of the reasons why his tdd is so good), but he hit cain with some good shots in R1 and from R4 onwards after recovering a bit in the last fight...

jds at +190 is quite good tho. It's also a 'problem' that cain is able to finish his fights and you can't easily go for the 'by decision' prop (like with gsp eg lol)...