MMA Thread
11-16-2013
, 05:34 PM
11-16-2013
, 06:58 PM
11-16-2013
, 07:00 PM
Quote:
Writeup time - i'll make it brief because i'm playing poker. Keep in mind my pick is for which side of the line has value (if I think one fighter is under 50% to win but has value i'll specify)
GSP -232 vs Hendricks
Hendricks has heavy hands and good wrestling, but his cardio is somewhat suspect. He has one way to beat GSP and that is punch him in the face hard and early and hurt him badly.
GSP is excellent at everything and while his chin is only average his striking defense is phenomenal and despite Hendricks better pedigree, GSP has the better more explosive wrestling.
I expect GSP to survive maybe one scary moment in r1 or 2 and plant Hendricks on his back regularly while keeping him at bay with jabs
Pick: GSP by decision (50-45x3) or a possible r4/5 TKO (not KO) stoppage due to accumulation of damage, or a late sub when Hendricks is gassed (think Cain/JDS 3 style finish)
Bet: GSP
Sonnen +174 vs Evans
While Evans is faster, Sonnen's wrestling is more explosive and he's more aggressive. Evans is more likely to finish the fight with his better striking and power but Sonnen is more likely to win the decision through sheer aggression in my opinion (think Sonnen/Bisping). Skillwise, Evans should win this but he hasn't looked the same since Jones and Sonnen wants it more I think. Sonnen's style is also more friendly for the judges. This is a pick'em fight though and when you cap it at 50/50, always take the dog.
Pick: Sonnen by decision (29-28x3)
Bet: Sonnen
Robbie Lawler vs Rory McDonald -376
Lawler has heavy hands. He has a puncher's chance. Rory is much better everywhere especially in the grappling but also in the technical striking. He's also physically stronger and will manhandle Lawler. I expect Rory to win this fight in a one sided beatdown.
Pick: McDonald by TKO, r1
Bet: I have McDonald in parlays but not straight up due to lack of value/punchers chance. If I have to pick a side i'd bet Rory.
Kos +102 vs Woodley
Woodley is overrated because he knocked out a relative nobody in his UFC debut. His striking is okay but not good, Kos has the same amount of power. Both have been knocked out. Kos has better wrestling.
Woodley has youth and hunger on his side but technically Kos is better everywhere and should grind Woodley down. Unless he gets caught I expect him to win this. Woodley won't take him down and shouldn't outstrike him and I think Kos can take Woodley down if he's losing the standup. Woodley has his moments but it isn't enough and Kos takes a fairly boring fight.
Pick: Kos by decision (30-27 30-27 29-28)
Bet: Kos at +102
Ali Bagautinov +130 vs Tim Elliott
Elliott has size, Ali has Russian skills. I quite like Ali as a dog but i'm worried about the size differential. Ali's skillset is impressive but he's smallish for a FLW even. That said, he's more well rounded imo and in a pick'em fight, take the dog. I expect this to be a back and forth fight with both guys having their moments. If Elliott gets on top, Ali is in trouble but likewise if Ali rocks Elliott standing he can hurt him badly and potentially even finish.
Pick: Bagautinov by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Bet: I'm small on Bagautinov here, it's not amazing or anything though. I'd probably recommend staying away.
Herman +169 vs Leites
Herman got outgrappled by Jake Shields, but Shields is a better grappler than Leites overall
Herman has heavy hands and can hurt him standing, but if Leites gets on top, he shouldn't lose position and will win a decision or get a sub. I think Leites takes it over half the time, but would cap him at more like -150 so I like the value on Herman's side slightly more. While Leites is better at what he does, Herman is the more well rounded fighter.
Pick: Leites by submission (r2) or Herman by TKO (r1)
Bet: Leaning Herman at these prices but stay away
Cerrone vs Dunham +109
This should win fight of the night if it goes more than half a round. Cerrone's a mental flake, at his best he should beat Dunham but he's been unconvincing lately and wilted when pressured. Dunham is a pressure fighter and is well rounded, Cerrone is well rounded too but tends to wilt when things don't go his way, whereas Dunham (who arguably could only have 1 loss if decisions went his way) presses on.
If Cerrone is at his best, he's a small favourite. If it's the Cerrone who fought RDA and Diaz (and Cerrone doesn't have a good fight IQ so it may well be) then Dunham is going to pick him apart to a decision as long as he doesn't get robbed.
If Dunham survives the opening minute without getting hurt, I really like his chances and would cap this at something like -150 for Dunham, or -200 if he hasn't been rocked in the first minute.
Pick: Dunham by decision (30-27x3)
Bet: Dunham, I think he is bet of the card narrowly over GSP, with nothing else being great.
Ebersole +180 vs Story
Rick Story is your run of the mill not quite top 15 wrestling grinder. Ebersole is also a grinder, but without the explosive takedowns, although he's more well rounded and has better striking than Story. Originally I leaned Story here thinking he could take Ebersole down but Ebersole looked great and big at the weigh-ins. I think Story may struggle to take Ebersole down and Ebersole outworks him standing while getting taken down and getting back to his feet once or twice in a closely contested fight. It's a pick'em fight here but i'm going with my gut. Ebersole outworks Story standing but gives up takedowns late in rounds once or twice making it a split decision.
Pick: Ebersole by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Bet: Ebersole, since in a pick'em fight, take the dog
Figueroa vs Perez -399
Figueroa will have nothing for Perez standing or on the ground. He's going to get brutally knocked out and early. That's my analysis.
Pick: Perez by TKO, R1
Bet: Have Perez in parlays but not that amazing value or anything, but still like this line narrowly.
Laspley vs High -283
I couldn't care less about this fight. Laspley has 8 kids and took up fighting to feed his family. He's being sent in here to lose and I expect he'll get taken care of when High gets on top of him or rocks him. High isn't amazing himself but he's decent and there is no evidence Laspley is a UFC caliber fighter.
Pick: High by submission, R2
Bet: No real value on either side, but would take High if I had to bet it.
Donovan +295 vs Villante
Donovan got knocked out in his last fight, Villante lost a decision to the same guy. While Villante's performance was better, these are big guys and he got knocked out by Chad Griggs who totally sucks. Villante is deservedly the favourite but i'm not laying that price on him under any circumstances.
Pick: Villante wins more often but I have no confidence in him whatsoever
Bet: Donovan at +295 - pure odds play on Villante not being good enough to warrant that price.
Pettis -412 vs Campuzano
Pettis is the better prospect and is being fed possibly the worst guy in the weight class on the roster for his debut so he can win spectacularly by TKO in Round 1. Which he will.
Pick: Pettis by TKO, R1
Bet: No real value since he's untested but Pettis if I have to pick a side
Picks of the card: Dunham and GSP
GSP -232 vs Hendricks
Hendricks has heavy hands and good wrestling, but his cardio is somewhat suspect. He has one way to beat GSP and that is punch him in the face hard and early and hurt him badly.
GSP is excellent at everything and while his chin is only average his striking defense is phenomenal and despite Hendricks better pedigree, GSP has the better more explosive wrestling.
I expect GSP to survive maybe one scary moment in r1 or 2 and plant Hendricks on his back regularly while keeping him at bay with jabs
Pick: GSP by decision (50-45x3) or a possible r4/5 TKO (not KO) stoppage due to accumulation of damage, or a late sub when Hendricks is gassed (think Cain/JDS 3 style finish)
Bet: GSP
Sonnen +174 vs Evans
While Evans is faster, Sonnen's wrestling is more explosive and he's more aggressive. Evans is more likely to finish the fight with his better striking and power but Sonnen is more likely to win the decision through sheer aggression in my opinion (think Sonnen/Bisping). Skillwise, Evans should win this but he hasn't looked the same since Jones and Sonnen wants it more I think. Sonnen's style is also more friendly for the judges. This is a pick'em fight though and when you cap it at 50/50, always take the dog.
Pick: Sonnen by decision (29-28x3)
Bet: Sonnen
Robbie Lawler vs Rory McDonald -376
Lawler has heavy hands. He has a puncher's chance. Rory is much better everywhere especially in the grappling but also in the technical striking. He's also physically stronger and will manhandle Lawler. I expect Rory to win this fight in a one sided beatdown.
Pick: McDonald by TKO, r1
Bet: I have McDonald in parlays but not straight up due to lack of value/punchers chance. If I have to pick a side i'd bet Rory.
Kos +102 vs Woodley
Woodley is overrated because he knocked out a relative nobody in his UFC debut. His striking is okay but not good, Kos has the same amount of power. Both have been knocked out. Kos has better wrestling.
Woodley has youth and hunger on his side but technically Kos is better everywhere and should grind Woodley down. Unless he gets caught I expect him to win this. Woodley won't take him down and shouldn't outstrike him and I think Kos can take Woodley down if he's losing the standup. Woodley has his moments but it isn't enough and Kos takes a fairly boring fight.
Pick: Kos by decision (30-27 30-27 29-28)
Bet: Kos at +102
Ali Bagautinov +130 vs Tim Elliott
Elliott has size, Ali has Russian skills. I quite like Ali as a dog but i'm worried about the size differential. Ali's skillset is impressive but he's smallish for a FLW even. That said, he's more well rounded imo and in a pick'em fight, take the dog. I expect this to be a back and forth fight with both guys having their moments. If Elliott gets on top, Ali is in trouble but likewise if Ali rocks Elliott standing he can hurt him badly and potentially even finish.
Pick: Bagautinov by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Bet: I'm small on Bagautinov here, it's not amazing or anything though. I'd probably recommend staying away.
Herman +169 vs Leites
Herman got outgrappled by Jake Shields, but Shields is a better grappler than Leites overall
Herman has heavy hands and can hurt him standing, but if Leites gets on top, he shouldn't lose position and will win a decision or get a sub. I think Leites takes it over half the time, but would cap him at more like -150 so I like the value on Herman's side slightly more. While Leites is better at what he does, Herman is the more well rounded fighter.
Pick: Leites by submission (r2) or Herman by TKO (r1)
Bet: Leaning Herman at these prices but stay away
Cerrone vs Dunham +109
This should win fight of the night if it goes more than half a round. Cerrone's a mental flake, at his best he should beat Dunham but he's been unconvincing lately and wilted when pressured. Dunham is a pressure fighter and is well rounded, Cerrone is well rounded too but tends to wilt when things don't go his way, whereas Dunham (who arguably could only have 1 loss if decisions went his way) presses on.
If Cerrone is at his best, he's a small favourite. If it's the Cerrone who fought RDA and Diaz (and Cerrone doesn't have a good fight IQ so it may well be) then Dunham is going to pick him apart to a decision as long as he doesn't get robbed.
If Dunham survives the opening minute without getting hurt, I really like his chances and would cap this at something like -150 for Dunham, or -200 if he hasn't been rocked in the first minute.
Pick: Dunham by decision (30-27x3)
Bet: Dunham, I think he is bet of the card narrowly over GSP, with nothing else being great.
Ebersole +180 vs Story
Rick Story is your run of the mill not quite top 15 wrestling grinder. Ebersole is also a grinder, but without the explosive takedowns, although he's more well rounded and has better striking than Story. Originally I leaned Story here thinking he could take Ebersole down but Ebersole looked great and big at the weigh-ins. I think Story may struggle to take Ebersole down and Ebersole outworks him standing while getting taken down and getting back to his feet once or twice in a closely contested fight. It's a pick'em fight here but i'm going with my gut. Ebersole outworks Story standing but gives up takedowns late in rounds once or twice making it a split decision.
Pick: Ebersole by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Bet: Ebersole, since in a pick'em fight, take the dog
Figueroa vs Perez -399
Figueroa will have nothing for Perez standing or on the ground. He's going to get brutally knocked out and early. That's my analysis.
Pick: Perez by TKO, R1
Bet: Have Perez in parlays but not that amazing value or anything, but still like this line narrowly.
Laspley vs High -283
I couldn't care less about this fight. Laspley has 8 kids and took up fighting to feed his family. He's being sent in here to lose and I expect he'll get taken care of when High gets on top of him or rocks him. High isn't amazing himself but he's decent and there is no evidence Laspley is a UFC caliber fighter.
Pick: High by submission, R2
Bet: No real value on either side, but would take High if I had to bet it.
Donovan +295 vs Villante
Donovan got knocked out in his last fight, Villante lost a decision to the same guy. While Villante's performance was better, these are big guys and he got knocked out by Chad Griggs who totally sucks. Villante is deservedly the favourite but i'm not laying that price on him under any circumstances.
Pick: Villante wins more often but I have no confidence in him whatsoever
Bet: Donovan at +295 - pure odds play on Villante not being good enough to warrant that price.
Pettis -412 vs Campuzano
Pettis is the better prospect and is being fed possibly the worst guy in the weight class on the roster for his debut so he can win spectacularly by TKO in Round 1. Which he will.
Pick: Pettis by TKO, R1
Bet: No real value since he's untested but Pettis if I have to pick a side
Picks of the card: Dunham and GSP
11-16-2013
, 07:39 PM
11-16-2013
, 08:02 PM