Struve was mostly compromised mentally. The groin strikes were adversity and Struve does not do well under adversity. I suspect Rothwell learned a lot about how to fight Struve in this fight. I'd take Rothwell all day with Struve at -200 now. Rothwell just needs to get past that length and not stand back acting like a punching bag.

*** this joke of a sport.

I had Yadong winning round 1 (so a 9-9 tie). After that I didn't score it.

One thing I do know is that Yadong is the far more skilled fighter. Stamann has wrestling and that's it. He's gonna need more than that to go anywhere in the 135lb division.

Maybe -200 is too much with the mental edge of having a win etc but Struve was certainly a favourite prior to two illegal groin strikes (and was a clear fav even after one)

Rothwell does best when he's aggressive because when he's not he's a slow plodder who will never win on volume

In this case Rothwell won because he landed multiple illegal strikes. Without them sure he may have found a KO in the third or whatever but he was a huge underdog down two rounds

Was so close to betting reem dec thinking he might be wrestle heavy and cage leaning etc

Might not happen but def wish I had that rather than straight up atm def more value

Overeem is fighting very intelligently just needs to not get clipped and let his experience carry him through

Reem's boxing defense seems a lot better lately keeps hands high ensuring he doesn't take clean shots to the chin etc

Its really impressive how good he has got after coming off steroids and being older while also having a shot chin. He's fighting a very smart fight here, retreating and blocking against the flurries then landing counters and takedowns as he can

Think he lost the fourth due to the flurries but might be up 3-1 and worst case 2-2 as he clearly won 1/3

ya reem is playing smart, **** im so used to old reem where he just got KO'd in stupid ways. his high guard and new grinding style is winning him this fight.

oh well lol NHL paid me a ****load today at least went like 7/8 lol

OH MY GOD THAT KO

holy **** 4 seconds left!!! i thought i was done just won $1200 oh **** ahah


what an insane ending. i would have NEVER thought he would finally get the KO after not getting it for over 24 minutes.

Wow that is a quesionable stoppage with 3 seconds left in the fight Room gets straight up w 3 secs left crazy

Rozen's walk off convinces the ref

Miragliotta costs me 2 fights today lol Reem was gonna win a 48-47

Crazy

Breakeven card etc

I can only imagine how pissed i'd be if I had reem dec +800 which I nearly took lol

Oh well. Weird and mildly disappointing card and Miragliotta can **** off

Can't take time left into account. It is about protecting the fighter. Overeem was done.

Overeem was clearly the +EV bet.

Rozenstruik reminds me a bit of a Derrick Lewis. The bad version. Will probably fade him going forward. Ngannou will take his head off.

Rozenstruiks father looks like his younger brother.

he does lol i had to double take like noooo wayy. totally different physical build too.

Truthfully, Rozenstruik could of done more damage but he walked away when Reem was sitting on his butt with a daze on his face, like where the hell am I.

What baffles me though, is the hesitation of throwing shots throughout the fight. I see many fighters, fight a different fight, almost like they are being held back, perhaps nervous, somebody tell me what it is.

I see it all the time. Sure this was a 5 round fight, so he perhaps holding back to preserve energy, but he had Reem on the cage a few times and Reem just covering up, he backs off a few times. But what's even more apparent, Rozenstruik just didn't throw any power shots at all, until the last 5 sec of round 5. So why, what is holding him back?

Just bad fight IQ? The guy not realising that he probably needs to step it up eventually? Scared of gassing, I wonder what it is. Am I misreading it?

Oh I agree Reem was done but Reem got straight up. Yes, he stumbled after, and if Rozen had thrown ONE follow up GnP strike to his head i'd have been fine with the ref stopping it immediately but he walked off and was facing away from Reem as he was standing up - if Reem stayed down the stoppage is fine too but he literally stood up straight away with additional no incoming shots. Yes, he was done and about to get finished but he would likely have made it to end of fight as Rozen was trying to mark hunt it

Not a travesty or anything like the Struve fight but def iffy and insanely poor fight IQ by Rozen not to throw GnP when Reem was stunned but not out cold, a different official doesn't stop it and then it's 48-47 Reem or best case 47-47 if judges give a 10-8 for the knockdown

ha man, what an insane card. my friend had struve, Rodriguez, reem. can only imagine how tilted he is. lost a bit, but so close to winning big, fack reem.

I see, so Rozenstruik was offended by Reem's interviews where Reem says something like Rozenstruik not on my level. So Rozenstruik makes a point to purposely fight all 5 rounds and i nthe last sec, finally throws his very first power shot and ko's him instantly.

Agree, he shouldn't of walked off but throw a few more shots, while Reem was just sitting there, check the replay, if Rozenstruik doesn't walk off but insta starts puching Reem, you'll see that Reem weren't going to stand back up. He had a few secs, while Rozenstruik backed off, thats when he got back up.

At first I didn't like the stoppage but after looking at it a few times I think it was probably correct. Overeem spent all fight turtling up but then in the last few moments of the fight he just left himself wide open



I think the ending was fitting. I'd loved for Overeem to win. I'd love for Overeem to rise up the rankings and win the title. However, we can not exist in a world where Overeem has to turtle up and shoot for takedowns. It's just not right. Overeem is a way more skilled striker than Rozenstruik, but father time has gotten the best of Overeem.

As for Rozenstruik, he's got great durability, toughness and power. His cardio seemed fine too. He isn't all that skilled but he may not need to be in the HW division. I really thought Overeem would be able to take him down and submit him but that didn't happen. I'd love to see him fight Ngannou. I was big on the Ngannou hype train but after the Miocic loss I became a hater. So yeah, I'm still a hater and i think this dude could derail that hype train once again. I don't care if the fight goes exactly like Ngannou vs Derrick Lewis, I need to see it. Needs to be a 5 round ESPN main event.

Rozenstruik is really delusional if he thinks 3 months of training puts him on Overeem's level. Fortunately, power and durability mean a ton at HW and Rozenstruik is just 31 years old with 10 mma fights under his belt so lets see what the future holds.

If Rozenstruik fights like that, I don't see him beating Ngannou. I know he's counter striker but, even his counters were awful today. So not sure it was just the pressure of fighting Reem, nervs or something else. I have seen him fight with a lot more aggression.

If Ngannou shows up, like did vs Lewis, I think we have a staring contest on our hands and both are pretty skilled at that.

On to next weeks card.

I'm kinda liking Holloway, don't think Alex can hurt him like Poirier did, he doesn't have the reach, and skill imo. He's a pressure wrestler, Max has fought guys like him before and they come up short.

I like De Randamie, she's a strong striker, I think the price is not correct. Nunez did finish her on the ground, last time, but have to assume she's worked on her ground game. Striking I feel like they are pretty close, with Amanda having more power but De Randamie edging it in technique, more volume. I think Randamie prob has a cardio advantage too. If she can get this fight into deep waters, she has an excellent chance imo.

Amanda is really going to struggle if this fight starts round 3 imo. If Randamie has the right game plan and make her work from the get go.

I like Colby as a dog. I wonder how the wrestling stacks up, will Usman be able to dominate him or not? He dominated Woodley but Woodley got no gas tank, right. If somebody can convince me that Usman's wrestling is way better than Colby's than I might change my mind, but if the wrestling is kinda nullified and this is contested a fair bit in the striking department, then I feel Colby putting on that pace, something Usman usually does but I'm confident Colby does it better.

Need to watch some tape for the other fighters.

If everyone had bet the house on Tito tonight as I recommended, nobody would be bitching about Dan Miragliotta right now.

Volkanovski's reach is half an inch shorter than Poirier's.

Ngannou has never won a fight that has gone into the 3rd round. Taking him into deep waters is the key to beating him. Ngannou's bound to disappoint again here pretty soon anyways. I'm not convinced he beats his own sparring partner Ciryl Gane but I guess that's neither here nor there.

hahaha, I completely misjudged his reach, didn't look at stats yet, just by eyes he looks a lot shorter.

Almost a perfect night.
Got lucky with Rothwell but these things seem to even themselves out over the long run.

Thought Struve was fighting perfectly using his kicks and reach effectively putting it all together. But he mentally folds you could see him quit and as Rothwell pressured him. Without the nut shots its likely he would have took the decision.

Ladd looked great, the market overeacted to her loss to GDR and tough weight cut previously. She will probably be sub 1.5 against anyone outside the top 5 now.

Reem fight was going kinda of how I expected it. I did think Rozenstruik would be gassed and was really impressed with his cardio. Think he is a tough fight for anyone outside of the elite wrestlers.

DC, Miocic and Blaydes would all run him over. I think he matches up pretty well with Ngannou and that would be a great fight. His durability and cardio would make it interesting.

Some really good spots coming up in the enxt few weeks.

just catching up on the fights.

Struve fight:
wrt controversial nutshots. the ref telling struve - you are up on score cards, so you should try to finish it out - Well I understand why he said it but dont think any ref needs to be talking like that in the first place (whether we heard it or not ). the first nut shot seemed to cause such a serious reaction and appeared more harmful than your average nutshot, so when it happened again its such a cringe worthy situation.

Overeem/Rozenstruik:
overeem ko at end was just crazy, first off the power generated behind that punch was so massive. literally broke his face and a part of me can understand why he walked off after the ko. however, agree with swoop that its not very intelligent because in some situations the ref might let it continue and then he loses via the scorecards. flashbacks of bisping/anderson where anderson had him seriously hurt and didnt pounce and walked off like he had won. when Rozenstruik is turning his back and celebrating 100% confident he won, what if reem throws a hammer fist to back of his head while he has his back turned instead of stumbling to the right? what if ref didnt stop it? etc Dont think these are high probabilities ... but surely can happen some %.

Its just weird for a ref to step in between 2 fighters and not call it off immediately in this situation. Yes, I get that hes trying to figure out what happening but what made dan miragliotta call the fight off 2 seconds later in first place? Did that massive cut on reems face influence his decision or was it reem stumbling to the right? In the end not super important - it was the right decision. But it was certainly a confusing stoppage.

Best bet of the card this weekend imo is Ian Heinisch.
Starting to get back in now but caught him at 1.73.

His workrate and wrestling is a nightmare for Akhmedov who fights in bursts and tends to swing heavily rather then fight technically. I think Heinisch is close to 1.5 here.

I don't mind De Randamie inisde the distance either at 5.0 or above.
Can see there being some value there.

Not sure about the main event I see quite a few people think Usman just smothers Colby but not sure myself probably staying away from that fight.