I figure he's free money vs every1 but Tony. Tony is the only guy that can make it a war off his back.

By this logic Khabib is free money vs anyone as he can take down anyone. Hell, last time he had zero takedowns was 7 years ago when he had 0 takedowns in back to back fights vs Gleison Tibau and Thiago Tavares. He then immediately followed those performances up with a 21 takedown night vs Abel Trujillo.

As for the Kevin Lee fight, Lee took Tony down 3 times (3 for 6). The first time Tony nearly took his back and then nearly caught him in a submission. After getting position Kevin Lee landed good damage. The 2nd time he took him down Lee did very little and Tony kicked him off to get back to his feet. The 3rd time Kevin Lee took him down Tony nearly submitted him, then he beat the **** out of him from the bottom, and then he did submit him.

Khabib can be a bit reckless with his takedowns. 15 seconds into the McGregor fight Khabib shot a takedown and in the scramble to finish it Khabib leaves his right arm out there in lala land and also nearly gives up his back. Those transitions are going to be very risky vs Tony where they pose very little risk vs other opponents. At the beginning of round 3 vs Poirier, Khabib left his neck completely exposed going for a takedown and Poirier sunk in a guillotine.

Exactly. This is the one dude that can damage him. Sure someone could catch Khabib with a one punch knock out but seems unlikely..certainly no more so likely than Tony finishing him via a doctor's stoppage due to a cut.

This weekend we will be treated to the long awaited MMA return of Dos Caras Jr. He's a legit fighter but you gotta put the house on Tito. Last I saw he was only like -1000.

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Haha yeah not sure what the true line should be here because its such an odd fight. Could argue Tito is like 1.05 here though.

Shame there is no prop markets because would take Tito inside the distance at like 1.25 or above. Tito wrecks him everywhere, pretty dumb fight.

They should have stuck this on in the previous weeks with no UFC.

Same day as UFC and also KSW which has Scott Askham vs Khalidov as the main fight which is pretty decent.

Also the same day as Ruiz vs Joshua 2 although that boxing match is earlier in the day (Saudi Arabia) so maybe they are trying to piggyback off that event somehow.

BTW, seems insane that this forum doesn't have a boxing thread especially considering how big the HW division has gotten in the past year.

pinny lines are back to 6c for most fights for this week, not sure what that was about.

I think there is a boxing thread its just not active.

Backed Joshua to win by decision at 5.3, its 4.7 now but still value imo.
Think he fights a lot safer and works behind his jab this similar to the Parker fight.

Also you know that those judges will be swayed towards the golden cash cow if the fights close.

Exactly, he kinda is free money vs anybody imo. It only remains to be seen if Tony can fight back off his back. Just because we have seen him do it, doesn't mean he can do vs Khabib. Khabib with that bear strength and his ability to control opponents, who says Tony can defend himself, let alone fight back?

Difference is cardio though, Lee clearly gassing in that fight.

According to Khabib, he purposely gave him the neck, so he could squeeze out his arms, I tend to believe that guys at that level can play those kind of chess games.
It's a great matchup, I don't think Tony has any other chance but a punchers chance of a sub. You think he can win multiple ways, that's fine. I personally think Tony will be on his back getting ground and pounded for the first 2 rounds, after that we have to see if he is still strong enough to put it on Khabib.

He clearly does still put it on other fighters in later rounds, even after getting rocked, hurt, but in this fight he'll be forced to work hard from the get go, and most likely get beat up pretty bad. Consider Khabib doesn't just finish him from g&p in the first 2 rounds, but beats him up pretty bad, it still not a problem for Khabib, Tony finds ways to win later in fights and finds elbows in clinches because his opponents are gassed out of their minds, will that really happen with Khabib? Khabib has as good or better conditioning than Tony.

I agree with that to a large extent. I saw this matchup at -250 Khabib which is closer than his other fights, but I think there is good justification for it being closer than his other fights.

Khabib does 3 things really well. He puts his opponents against the cage. He takes them down. He tires them out. If you look at the LW Top 10, who exactly is going to stop Khabib from putting them against the cage? Who is going to stop Khabib from taking him down? Gaethje? Kevin Lee? I suppose they have the best chance but I have serious doubts either of them can stop him. Abel Trujillo is a state champion wrestler and a 4 time NAIA Wrestling champ. I'm not saying his MMA wrestling is on par with those other 2 but Khabib took the dude down 21 frickin times just to prove a point.

The reality of the situation as I see it is that we are in a world where Khabib will put his opponent against the cage. He will take his opponent down, and he will tire his opponent out. So who in the LW division is most well suited to compete within that reality? Tony Ferguson is the most dangerous off his back. He likes fighting with his back against the cage. He's the most dangerous in transitions. His cardio is the best in the division which will allow him to fight at a high level for longer than other guys when faced with Khabib's pressure.

I also believe Tony has a different mindset when it comes to takedown defense. Whereas Conor and Khabib did a little merry-go-round dance to start their match because Conor was exerting full effort to stop the inevitable, Tony will look for transitions and openings for submissions rather than trying so hard to stop that which can not be stopped. That makes Tony more dangerous. It also helps his cardio and his mindset. A lot of fighters will mentally break from Khabib's pressure and his takedowns but Tony welcomes both.

I'm not saying bet on Tony or bet on Khabib. I'm just disputing the idea that this fight is free money. I'd say it is the least free money of all Khabib's potential matchups.

anyone else think the Weili vs Joanna line is way too short. i really like Weili there, think she should be -200

@white Gatsby, I don't know why you think Khahib has as good of conditioning as Tony. Tony puts a pace like no other in MMA. Max usually does but after getting clocked a few times by Dustin even he fought more moderate. Tony has been hit and after 10 seconds he's right back on the guy... getting hurt in a fight takes a lot of stamina out of someone and Tony walks through it.

Khahib took a round 3 off vs. Connor. Why would he do that?
He took rd4-5 off vs. Al Iaquinta... and it should be noted he couldn't get the TD's in those rounds. Al didn't have the gas tank or the skill to punish Khahib for that but I am 100% sure that Tony does.

I don't think Tony is going to sub Khahib. He'd be lucky to scramble enough to get back to his feet. I'm not even sure he can do that tbh. And I have no doubt that Khahib will take Tony down easily in r1-2. But after that if the TD's don't come so easy each time he will pay for it... which makes the next TD even harder.

I like Tony winning via TKO/Doctor stoppage in late rd3 or rd4-5.

I strongly don't think Khahib will be able to mentally break Tony.. and I don't think he will be able to sub him although that is more likely then breaking him or getting Tony tired.

grappling endurance is way different from striking endurance

I'd be very surprised if Tony is going to be less tired than Khabib after Khabib rides him for 3 rounds

can Tony overcome/survive 3 10-8 rounds? there's only one way to find out

Don't think I have ever seen Ferguson gassed.

The most interesting part of the fight is Ferguson doesn't rest on bottom he constantly attacks. Khabib can rest if he takes his back but other then that he will be constantly worked.

If your betting Tony its probably going to be optimal to do it live, Khabib does slow down no doubt and Ferguson's elbows are vicious.

Can't wait for this fight just hope it finally happens.

I still think Khabib beats the **** out of Tony and makes it look easy. He might even finish him in the second or whatever with Tony landing nearly no offense

If it sees r3 or later Tony becomes very live IF Khabib starts to slow down but i'd be shocked if the fight isn't a one sided beatdown for at least 10 minutes (and Khabib will sub him a bunch)

The most interesting matchups for Khabib are either precision strikers like Conor with one punch KO power who can catch him shooting etc or an elite bottom game Maia/Werdum type. Tony has good BJJ but he subs people are he rocks them or whatever a lot or after they're getting tired, he's going to just get smesh from bottom position against Khabib if he settles for bottom position

His best chance is to take it to deep waters, make Khabib gas and finish him via TKO on the feet late in the fight (or rock him and lock up a sub or w/e). Tony is an amazing all rounder, who is good at everything but not the best at anything except cardio/volume late in fights - that's where he has to take it to beat Khabib or Conor, because Conor outstrikes him with precision and Khabib takes him down and smashes him - and I love Tony and have bet on him a lot but an elite specialist is what you need to be to beat him and Tony won't outgrapple Khabib from bottom position a high % of the time at all, what he needs to do is survive, make Khabib expend energy, try and catch him with big shots whenever he can and make him work and hope to survive long enough to take over. With Conor same deal, has to make it a high volume fight and not get knocked out for 3 rounds or so until Conor slows down and he can pour on the pressure.

The thing is Tony is such a good all rounder he's better than most specialists in their specialty - i'm not sure that applies to the absolute best strikers or grapplers though if they can keep the fight where they want it. The only people who can match him for cardio are like the Diaz brothers but in those cases Tony could win via better standup technique and matching or exceeding their output. Cardio and putting on an unmatchable pace is the thing he is the best at but you need to be not getting dominated to do that

I make Khabib something like -300, expect he closes at around -200

So what have people got down for Saturday's card.

Took £300 on Ladd at 1.67 - She looks in great shape heading in to this fight and I do think she is a top tier grappler in that division. Think this a good style match up for her. Yana doesn't have the power to keep her pushing her against the cage and getting into clinch range.

£100 on Overeem probably going to add more as his odds rise. Think if Rozentruik doesn't blast him out early he wins this soundly.

£200 on Rothwell at 1.75 - I think his decline has been a bit overstated. He looked fine against Ivanov and should have got the decision. Watched the Arlovski fight and og Pitbull put on a career best perofrmance in that fight. Rothwell struggled with his movement and punching combinations. Struve's footwork is levels below Arlovski's.

Banking on Rothwell's durability to win this fight as its probably going to be an ugly stand up fight a high percentage of the time.

Struve's chin is shot and he retired after his last fight makes me wonder why he is coming back so soon.

Even in the grappling I don't give Struve that much of an edge. Rothwell is decent and got some nasty chokes. From memory its only prime Cain Velasquez that has managed to really dominate Rothwell from a grappling stand point.

Not sure how often how often I need to remind people of this but Conor has 11 fights in the UFC and he has exactly 1 one punch knockout, which was vs Jose Aldo at 145lbs. By contrast Tony Ferguson has 2 one punch knockouts in 16 UFC fights. Tony Ferguson is not a one punch knockout artist but neither is Conor, especially at LW or above where he has gotten a finish in just 1 of his 4 UFC fights.

Even if Conor was a 1 punch knockout artist it's not particularly interesting because he literally just has a round or a round and a half in a 5 round fight to get that KO because after that Conor, and virtually everyone else that fights Khabib will be far to fatigued to get a knockout.

Struve said he had been training with Overeem and some other high level fighters and he was really enjoying it and was doing really well so he started training more and more and decided that if he's still got it why not take a couple more fights.

I'm guessing he probably wasn't having much fun before and needed that mental break.

Ben Rothwell v Stefan Struve - Method of Victory
Stefan Struve by Points
4/1
Stake:
£25.00
Potential returns:
£125.00

ben last three by d, ploder, ben is very much good enough to avoid heat, show flair, light ben up enough to keep it interesting but this is a 3rd with neither fighter having what it takes to out do the other, especially struve over ben,

struve is going to make an impression that JDS,AA could not do over 3?

Not sure man I think the over 1.5, the fight going to the cards is a nice play.

Struve just does not have "it", but he will have enough to keep it moving else he will get knocked out which he is going to know not to do,

You are fighting the mummy.. do you stand still, no you move a lot.

Some excellent points brother. I agree with pretty much everything, not saying bet the house on Khabib. I say free money, in that I think he wins quite easily despite Tony's skill set. Though agree with the least free money compared to other opponents.

Let's see if Khabib adjusts, if he turns up even better, less sloppy. I know from experience depending on the opponent, you can adjust to the level of your opponent. So while he just doesn't care he gives his back potentially to Conor, he could very well step it up a notch vs a guy like Tony, who clearly is more dangerous in transitions.

Honestly while Tony has great subs, and is slick etc, it's Khabib, and he's the best on the ground, so I treat it as a punchers chance for Tony.

He takes a round off because he puts more energy into his first 2/3 rounds, grappling and wrestling is a lot more exhausting vs striking.

Nice I ended up making 3 bets on tonight’s action(boxing + ufc), Ladd and sayles ufc and Hunter(vrs povetkin) box. In a night where I wasn’t too ambitious on getting anything.

I can’t be the only one who thinks Holloway @-171 for next week seems like great value?

Not so sure about Holloway i'm normally big on him but Volkanovski may have the same power that Poirier has to hurt him with his punches. I think the fight will be competitive. Would take Max at evens but if Volk gets to +200 i'll prob play it

Took some Ladd -160. Market prob overreacting to losing to GDR who is huge and an elite striker etc

Considering Struve too because on skillset he's a huge fav vs Rothwell, he has better BJJ and range and Rothwell is slow as **** which means Struve has more time to get his very hittable chin out of the way of the slow motion punches coming for his him

He'll still get KTFO'd a lot because as much as he's always been one of my fav HW fighters he has low fight IQ at times, but he can submit Rothwell if he can find his way to a dominant position and Ben is so slow and hittable in theory Struve should win if it goes the distance as long as he's not being cage-leaned and if he is he has a chance of finding a scramble and a sub

Sort of want Reem too but with his chin against a prospect with power just gonna leave it should be a flip, line thinks it's a flip, I guess I might go tiny at +103 just for a sweat.

Talked myself into a Struve bet at +125 because it feels like that fight's a flip too. At his best, Struve wins easily. At his worst, he loses easily. I hope we get motivated Struve.

I think that'll do me for the card. Always down to watch Struve and Overeem fight win or lose

agree on ladd, im hoping she comes down. also, if simon and struve go higher ill be tempted. i'm taking reem, if he gets dusted early so be it. the simon fight is kinda weird just cause i don't think i've ever really seen anyone try and wrestle rob font so i don't really know what to expect. i think im just gonna pass on that one.

i think the reem fight will go like when he fought ngannou. at HW i dont trust overeems chin against a guy who loves to ko/tko 1st round. younger, probably faster with very little damage over his career as he finishes all his fights early.

Yeah I mean it seems like either Reem gets KTFO'd in the opening exchanges or he uses his elite overall skillset to beat up a guy who is still fairly green

I won't be surprised at all if he gets KTFO'd fast but if he doesn't he should be a substantial favorite - pretty happy with my small sweat sized bet there. I don't have anything huge on the card, but medium on Ladd then smallish on Struve and Reem will do. I think i'll get 1/2 a lot on Struve/Reem plus Ladd wins a ton

UFC on ESPN 7 Risk $4,660.00

Alistair Overeem (+100) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $200.00 for $200.00
Alistair Overeem/Jairzinho Rozenstruik Under 1½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00
Alistair Overeem/Jairzinho Rozenstruik Under 1½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Marina Rodriguez (-125) vs Cynthia Calvillo $250.00 for $200.00
Marina Rodriguez (-129) vs Cynthia Calvillo $516.00 for $400.00

Ben Rothwell (-136) vs Stefan Struve $544.00 for $400.00
Ben Rothwell (-140) vs Stefan Struve $280.00 for $200.00
Ben Rothwell (-140) vs Stefan Struve $560.00 for $400.00

Yana Kunitskaya (+140) vs Aspen Ladd $100.00 for $140.00

Song Yadong (-205) vs Cody Stamann $410.00 for $200.00
Song Yadong (-205) vs Cody Stamann $410.00 for $200.00

Rob Font (-140) vs Ricky Simon $140.00 for $100.00

Tim Means (-255) vs Thiago Alves $510.00 for $200.00

Billy Quarantillo vs Jacob Kilburn: No Bet

Bryce Mitchell vs Matt Sayles: No Bet

Joe Solecki vs Matt Wiman: No Bet

Virna Jandiroba (-255) vs Mallory Martin $510.00 for $200.00

Makhmud Muradov vs Trevor Smith: No Bet