Don't see any of the active posters saying Miller would beat Bisping easily... I just said there where many unknown factors bc I really didn't know in what shape Miller was in, if he could get the takedowns etc. Bisping didnt really look that good the 1st round and I did predict a tko by Bisping.

"Bisping's 'no top 10 wins' is garbage from haters." Why is this argument garbage? Surely a top 5 ranked fighter should have been competing and beating top 10 ranked fighters?

Pretty much this is why I see Bisping taking this. He's got better movement (Stann likes to just stand and throw bombs) and way better grappling. Stann's power + Bisping's chin is a concern so I wouldn't go too heavy on it but I think there's value on Bisping.

Bisping is a much better well rounded fighter but I don't think that comes into play as much in this fight. Both fighters are going to want to stand and bang. Likely that Bisping outpoints him to a 3 round decision. In saying that the sonnen fight may have people forgetting how improved Stann has looked lately overall and in his striking.

At +155 I think the value is on Stann.

http://www.mmaplayground.com/top-10-...spx?Display=MW

A good tell of how the rankings are approximately and as you can see, Bisping hasn't fought any of the top ten ranked guys. I know we can go in the past and look he fought rashad etc, but you have to take into consideration his lastest fights, and they have all been against fighters not in the top 10. He's been getting easy fights in 2x miller, akiyama and rivera. I think he needs to prove himself more before getting a titleshot and being called a top 5 guy because being a top 5 guy you have to have at least beat someone relavant in the top 10, preferably top 5 rank and quite frankly, coming close or having a competetive fight doesn't do it. Note I'm saying bisping is a top 10 ranked fighter, just not top 5 ranked and I have nothing against him personally which would cloud my judgement.

He went to a split decision with two of the three top10 fighters he faced, both of whom were top 3 in their weight class not just top 10.

Basically, I think bisping is hugely underrated. Would there seriously be an argument he's not a top 5-6 MW if he's been given the decision over Sonnen? Bisping has improved since the Henderson KO which clouds peoples judgement of him too.

I can't really make a case beyond 'he's better at everything than Stann except power' so I guess we'll see who's right in a few days

I'm just arguing that he needs to win this battle and then vs a top 5 ranked fighter to get a titleshot and that I'm not sure I would rank him as a nr 5 fighter to date. It's just that he hasn't beat anyone relevant in his 4 last fights. But yeah, I know that people have gotten titleshots for lesser things, but those are because the division has been weak and/or challenger has been a big name.
I'm not saying he won't beat Stann, I think he'll do it as long as he's able to take a punch and recover, which I think he will be able to and as long as he mixes takedowns with quality boxing in and out, he should be fine because Stann is really a brawler who doesn't back down with what seems to be a decent chin and heavy hands and good knees.

Does anyone know if 5Dimes grades a technical submission as a win on its "fighter will win by submission" props?

I don't know but I would assume so the same way a TKO counts the same as a KO

Would have to I think.

kinda sucks cuz submitting to strike is basically a tko...would be kind of weird for it to count as a sub, but i imagine thats how it is

Have you dudes seen the 153 lineup yet? Some cooky matchups.

UFC 153 looks very good, might be one of the best cards this year.

good to see Phil Davis - Wagner Prado is back on after it got ruined last time.

Some supposedly one sided matchups but some intriguing ones too. I like the card overall. 152 is quite good too, and the Struve/Miocic and Bigfoot/Browne cards have potential too, should be a few good weeks of MMA coming up after several weeks of nothing

Agreed.

I'll also definitely get on Prado if he's +500 again, he was looking okay until the injury (granted over a short timeframe)

Yeah, I still like because there are some unknown factors, can Bonnar take Anderson down and can he keep him down for 3 rounds? How fast is Herman going to get knocked out, in 1st, 2nd or 3rd round? Can Fitch lay on Silva for 3 rounds or is Silva able to shake off any TA and keep it standing.

I think the main event has everything a main event oughta have, well known names(AS), old timer(nog) vs a hittable guy, which should end inside the distance, up and comers(Silva and Davis) and a really standup brawl that will most likely end up in a tko/ko either way, texeira vs maldonado.

Bonnar odds are incredible, I think a small bet on bonnar wouldn't be so bad, he has decent takedowns and can hold people against the cage pretty good. I mean as long as he does what he did against Kingsbury, he has a high enough win % to grind it out if he has a perfect fight? Haven't seen the odds, but what do you think Sicilia Rony Jason is gona land on? Isnt Sicilia the guy that has like the worst telegraphed punches?

Jason is beyond a lock against Sicilia even though he disappointed me a bit late in his TUF Brazil run. Bet to -300 at least, and probably -400

Trinaldo is a bet against Tibau if he's a dog, which is likely

I like Brandao to finish Gambino in round one as well. Sure, he doesn't have a gas tank, but he won't need one here.

I like Prado over Davis if the odds are in +500 territory like they were in the first fight. I'd probably bet him to +300 or so to be honest in Brazil and given how the first fight was going.

Love Maia over Story. Will probably make a play if odds stay similar. Maia will be a beast at WW and he is the perfect fighter to beat Rick Story. Rick Story is basically a smaller, poor man's Chael Sonnen with worse takedowns and worse striking.

Big Nog is a bet to -300 or so probably, expect him to be -2xx

Teixeira will TKO Maldonado

Silva Fitch I have no idea

Ya Sicilia is the dude who just barrels forward winging haymakers.

Gotta be a bit careful with these TUF guys early in their careers though, sometimes they come out WAY improved after a few months of real training and ruin your locks. I'm looking at you, Caceres and Steve Siler.

Oh yah there's actual MMA this week.

Cub Swanson +180 - Should be a close fight on the feet. Oliveira doesn't have the takedown chops to get Swanson down I don't think and he's shown himself to be quite hittable on the feet.

TJ Grant +200 - He fights everyone pretty close and is generally underrated so I'll try an odds play here.

Jones by submission +213, Jones inside distance -372 - Jones should definitely finish Belfort, the only question is when and how. Submission seems more likely than TKO to me as that seems to be his favored strategy in recent fights.

Johnson by 5 rd decision +340 - Headed for a decision here most likely unless Benavidez can get dominant position on the ground, then there's a decent chance of a sub. Judges seem to love Johnson so at +340 it's worth a flier I think.

Bisping by decision +104 - If Bisping wins I expect him to win by decision almost always and I do expect him to win.

Undercard lines out.

Most intrigued by Igor Pokrajac -180 and then Charlie Brenneman -230. Pokrajac is against a guy who's been feasting on M1 cans and Brenneman is against Noke, who has been taken down without too much trouble in most of his fights.

FWIW I lean both Pokrajac and Brenneman but not quite enough to bet on them.

My analysis suggests both are tiny +EV but there is way too much uncertainty for me to be taking margins like that.

Scratch that. New **** has come to light. I'm neutral on Brenneman/Noke now.

Your analysis...of the line movements, etc that you initially used for capping or your analysis of their fighting based on your newfound MMA fandom?

Not using line movements anymore, but no not my fandom. I built a database and found various factors not properly accounted for in odds. Not going to reveal my secrets by saying which ones. It's nothing too complicated but MMA lines are so bad that it doesn't need to be.

Example of what I do is that I might look at something like fighter reach differential and check out all the fights where one fighter had a 3+ inch reach differential and see what would happen if I bet on those fighters. I might find that my ROI would have been 1%. Betting on a random fighter will generally net you -5%, so I chalk that factor up as being +6% ROI. I look at several independent factors like that and add or subtract from ROI to get a predicted ROI (but I don't actually bet unless the prediction is over 5% at least as the predictions are going to be wildly inaccurate). Reach isn't actually a factor I look at btw, that one is priced in well.

There's an article here where the guy does a similar thing. However he makes two mistakes. One is to look at whether factors predict actual winning chance rather than ROI, when what you want to know for betting is whether the market is wrong. It doesn't help to know that "Fighters who have 18 or more wins and never had a 2 fight losing streak more likely win" because that is blindingly obvious to everyone betting MMA. The other thing is that he datamines way too hard and ends up with factors like "Fighters whose last name begins with J and who have exactly 2 submission wins and whose favourite color is blue more likely win". He then tests for statistical significance and finds them significant, which is irrelevant when you are testing 800 different hypotheses, some of which will randomly look significant. This is called data-snooping bias and will not do good things for your bankroll. None of the factors I use are very complex for this reason.

I see. It would be cool if I had the knowhow to do something like that because I have a lot of free time (currently unemployed lol) and (I feel) a pretty strong knowledge of MMA in general.

As it is, I just use what I see when I watch fighters and try to extrapolate how I think their styles and tendencies matchup.

I do agree that a lot of MMA lines are pretty bad though.