How about Franklin at -283 vs Le, bet now or wait? Feels like it could go in either direction, if it wasn't in Macau i'd say bet now but Macau money may come in on Le since he's a fan favourite in southeast asia
Thinking if Stephens isn't a huge fav he's the play here.
Dodson could be if he's an underdog, that fight could open anywhere from evens to either guy at +250
Nunes maybe if he isn't too big a fav
Edwards/Neer depends on odds, i've backed away from Edwards a bit and will prob only go with him if he's +300 or better, and Neer if he's better than -140 or something otherwise just let it be
Mike Pierce should beat Aaron Simpson in what could be the most boring fight since any time Jon Fitch fought and won, but it'll probably be a 29-28 bland wrestlefest so I won't bet Pierce at worse than -200 or so
Also why are Carlo Prater and Marcus Levessiur in the UFC? Prater's only win against a non can in years is a DQ over Erick Silva which he won by getting knocked out and Marcus got submitted by Cody McKenzie in his last fight.
I still can't decide in the main event, I feel like either Browne hurts him in the opening 90 seconds and wins easily or if Silva can turn it into a grinding war of attrition he'll be able to eventually get Browne down and pound him out when he's tired
Damn I was hoping to get Johnson as a dog, rather unfortunate there.
I like Roller, Formiga, and Nunes at those lines. Maybe Simpson too though it would make me sad to bet against my horse Pierce. But every fight he's in is a 29-28-fest so it's usually a flip, though I think he has the the clear edge in boxing ability here. Roller has way more power than Volkmann on the feet and probably better BJJ too, while if Dodson shows up in anywhere near the lackluster form he had for his last fight he is going to get school on the mat by Formiga.
I kinda do, not too a strong a feeling on most of these fights though tbh. Not near as confident as I have been for the last 2 cards, when I did extremely well. Should probably take that as a sign and pick my spots carefully instead of going full degen.
lol I'd be pretty shocked if Hallman got subbed. Dude's never been subbed in 65 recorded fights, and Tavares isn't exactly the most aggressive going after a sub. He was content to work in the guard of Sam Stout IIRC, who isn't exactly an elite grappler.
I like Ellenberger, Johnson and Tavares a medium amount, and Volkmann, Browne and Harris a tiny amount. There's Bellator on too, will have a look through that.
@chris what does your model have to say about the Pierce/Simpson fight? Lot of money coming in on Simpson, but Pierce is basically on par with Koscheck and Hendricks after watching their fights and Simpson did get beat by Chris Leben, granted in a diff weight class. Feels like Pierce should win a war of wall and stall here a lot.
Edit: bit of money on Pierce since I last checked, but the odds still look pretty attractive. 2 more pinn lines out, but not for this fight yet
Key word in your post being SHOULD. He SHOULD win a wall n stall type fight where he does work with dirty boxing. I completely agree with that, the problem is judges don't seem to be able to see straight where Mike Pierce is concerned. Because of that, even though Pierce has been one of my favorites to bet in the past, I don't think I can lay this price on him.
