Is anyone bridge-jumping on Jon Jones this week? I'm seriously considering it, am I crazy? -750 on Pinnacle right now.

My fav bet of the undercard is actually Evan Dunham now that the lines are out. I expected him to be more like -300 and he's more like -185

Thinking Bisping and Dunham offer the most value on the card, then Brenneman and Oliveira, then maybe a small odds play on MM

Bisping inside distance honestly isn't that terrible at +388 given I think he'll be on top of Stann and pounding on him at some stage of the fight, I prefer straight up though as decision is more likely

oh damn i didnt even see that dunham was on the card. yeah that's a must bet for sure.

Grant has no good wins.

Anyone else think Dunham is pretty much a lock here? I mean, he beat Sherk and was robbed and his only other loss was to Guillard in a fight he was favored in and anyone can be knocked out by Guillard standing on a random day.

I'm trying to decide whether to go heavier on Bisping or Dunham. I'm actually leaning Dunham now, although both are amazing value imo. Another thing is wait or bet now, the odds are going back and forth on both fights. The late money comes on Dunham due to name recognition right over Grant? But I think it may also come on Stann, since a lot of casual fans will be cheering for Stann or against Bisping.

Bet Dunham now and Bisping later or wait on both?

I wish Silva was fighting a better LHW than Bonnar. Fight is kind of a joke. I really would like to bet against Silva but I just don't know if Bonnar is strong enough.

i bet bisping already and am going to bet dunham in the morning. i think the bisping -170 i got was easily the best bet on the card.

dunham isnt a bad fighter, but the guy can be inconsistent and has really failed to live up to the original hype surrounding him and possibly to his potential, so i dont feel good about going super heavy on him. Will probably throw a couple of units on him if i can get it at -200 or better.

as money pours in on the hammer, i'm thinking about fading him if hollett gets to the +350 range, as i kind of like anyone vs matt at this price in this point in his career.

i was set to go big on oliveiera, but the line is kind of disappointing and honestly if it keeps moving then the bet might be cub there.

sort of considering the spaniard (think he's getting underrated after recent losses), and possibly pierson over beniost after watching a lil tape. also, being a degenerate, i will likely be unable to resist a small bet on the phenom at +600 or better. Puncher's chance yayyyyyyyyyyyyy

Problem is, his opponent is pretty old as well.

Am I the only one who thinks Vitor has like less than 1% of winning, with that 1% including jones doing some illegal **** to get disqualification? It just feels like Jones is far too good of a overall fighter and gameplanner that he's just going to take down Vitor and end it?

you're underrating Vitor's hands

he only has a puncher's chance, but he's the second to fourth best puncher in the UFC p4p after Anderson, then maybe Machida and JDS

Vitor is ~15% to win here which is right around the current odds imo

No doubt he has good hands, but he's also a first round fighter, after that he's chances of winning dimishes rather quickly. I think the saying punchers chance dont really have the same effect when you're facing a guy who doesn't plan on making it a boxing match.

I have a small bet on vitor too tempting at over +600

Also I don't think we will see the Jones we have seen before, he will be hammered by the crowd and I don't think he is mature enough to deal with it effectively. Obviously he is a huge favourite but I'll be shocked if after all of this he can bring his "A game".

I'd be shocked if he didn't.

He'll deal with it, he has a pretty strong psyche from what've seen. He always brought his A game. Don't see this being anything different.

We will be able to tell at the weigh in tomorrow, watch for his body language and reaction to the crowd. I'm hoping the boo's will be deafening.

I also feel Vitor will probably perform well due to the "Hero" factor. Obviously he is still a huge underdog but I'm happy at my +650

I guess time will tell

This.

Ya'll underrating TJ Grant ITT. Dude is way solid.

lol, whoever is calling him +160 to beat evans is overrating him

Adding:

Grant/Dunham goes 3 round distance -190
Tiny hedge Belfort wins in round 1 +1200

Straight up. Dude made me a lot of money on his last fight. Kid is a beast at 155! Got him parlayed in a few bets.

Thank god MMA is back. Seems like forever since the last UFC card..

I think Dunham gets underrated with the 'lost 2 fights in a row hype trail derailed' talk when in reality it was only a loss to Guillard since he beat Sherk and he certainly would be live against Guillard in a rematch.

I honestly don't know too much about TJ Grant other than none of his fights that i've seen have been memorable, given I don't remember any of them other than I know i've watched a few since i've seen every UFC event since 110 and probably half of the events between 50 and 110

Don't really have anything to add to the Dunham - Grant discussion other than that 91% of those polled at Tapology have Dunham winning the fight. So if your thesis is that Dunham is underrated by the MMA community at large then that probably isn't going to fly.

Best price for Belfort to win the fight is +625. If you spread his chance of winning (which includes decisions) equally across 5 rounds, you're looking at a fair price of about +3500 for him to win in any given round. Even if you think he has a much better chance of winning in rd 1 than any other round, you are getting robbed at +1200.

If you look at it as a parlay of "Fight doesn't start rd 2" and "Belfort wins", a fair price given available lines would still be in excess of +1500. And I don't think you can just parlay the lines like that since imo if the fight doesn't enter the second round the reason is disproportionately likely to be that Jones has won.

I'd say he's at least twice as likely to win in rd 1 as any other round. Probably 3x.

What do you think of Roger Holletts chances vs Mat Hamill @ +300? Mat is coming out of retirement for this one. I just don't feel like he has his heart in it anymore so I threw some on the underdog.

This, Vitors best shot is round 1

Why would anyone analyze it that way? He's something like 20+ times more likely to get a KO in rd 1 then rd 5.