Ya I love Rothwell vs Gonzaga.

Bunch of props just listed on 5D. Hendo/Machida goes to decision is at +125, this is waaaaay off imo. I just put 15u on this, I think it goes the distance around 75% of the time.

Also like Rampage/Teixeira ITD at -180.

3 rounds yea

Sherdog.com is 100% mma, always have active members on too.

A thread has like 20 posts in 5 min.. Most active forums I've ever seen

I can dig the Hendo line, not sure if Teixeira and Rampage will end ITD tho. Rampage so hard to finish.

Price has gotten significantly worse on all the fighters I wanted to bet, including Varner whom I didn't list on that post because I already said I favored him previously ITT. Sigh.

Anyone think there might be value in Cain/JDS o1.5 at -110? JDS went about that long with Mir and Velasquez has gone the distance before.

Yes imo, unless Okami is mentally destroyed I like him here. Not a huge fan of either line though

I'd be scared of Machida putting Hendo out via one sided beatdown (there's a chance Machida is just entering his prime now imo) but I agree the line looks good as an underdog on the surface there as Machida isn't typically very aggressive and Hendo has a good chin. There's also the worry of Machida's chin and Hendo's power, I don't think Hendo is fast enough to touch Machida's chin but if he is, that's very bad for Machida.

Quite like Boetsch as a dog to Costa too. Weird line movement there

Ya these lines are moving all over the place.

Would be surprised if Machida finished Hendo with strikes.

Really? He's finished Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans, Ryan Bader, Rich Franklin and Randy Couture with strikes. I wouldn't be surprised at all and honestly i'd probably take Machida inside distance at +220ish

He's also been finished in 2 of his last 3 losses, even though I think a decision is favourite over inside distance, I don't think it's anywhere near as clearcut a spot as a lot of people seem to think. Henderson is not fast, he just hits hard, controls the octagon and has a good chin. Sounds cliche, but he's never faced a striker as good as Machida.

Machida has serious power though and a counterpunch could turn his lights out. Hendo's getting up there in age and everyone gets KO'd for a first time eventually.

Yeah I like it. JDS is a killer but I think Cain's performance in their first fight might have been an aberration and I think we might see a real battle this time. For that reason, I think Cain at around 2.60 presents reasonable value also. That said, JDS has pretty well been flawless to date so it could be foolish betting against him...

I'm not going to bet against JDS until someone shows he can be taken down. Best striker in the division, with an apparently excellent ground game he doesn't even need. I'm hoping I can get a good price on him against Overeem especially (assuming he beats Cain). Cain is the most likely guy in the division to beat him imo but Cain will need a takedown to do it, since he is not going to outstrike JDS and his chin has shown if hit hard by JDS he will crumple (even Jongo almost dropped him). Cain is still an amazing HW and clearly #2 in the world (with Overeem at 3 and Werdum at 4 imo) but i'm just not sure anyone can beat JDS right now.

Yeah, it's really hard to bet against JDS vs Cain because JDS has 5 rounds of connecting on the chin. I mean, Cain can talk about being hurt, not experienced enough, having reached a new level now and all, but the fact is, you can't train for getting punched in the face, u can't train your chin.

My only hope is that Cain puts up a fight this time, because if he gets KO'd fast like last time, it will be like, why should he even get a third chance? Even if he beats 3 top guys, it's like, he's getting touched on the chin and he simply can't fight a perfect fight for the whole time. At least if it's competetive for 1-2 rounds, he can find motivation should he lose, bc he can say, I beat him for 2 rounds till I got KO'd.

Can't wait for Overeem to get back into the game, after he beats Silva, Reem vs JDS is a guaranteed good standup fight.

Machida definitely hits hard and damn accurately. But nobody's ever finished Hendo with strikes and that's a biiiiig sample size. People have subbed him however and Machida has a decent sub game. I agree with your point about him getting old and his chin is bound to fade at some point however.

Speaking of not being able to train your chin, I also agree that I would love to get a good price on JDS against Overeem, I still don't believe that Overeem isn't gonna fold up at the first sign of danger. He's done it too many times in the past.

Also, Kongo DID drop Velasquez, twice IIRC. Nailed him on the chin.

Over 1.5 got hit pretty hard, it's -140 now. Probably will wait and hope it moves back the other way, seems reasonable to expect most bettors to be on under.

Most late bettors tend to bet unders because it's more exciting to cheer for a finish than against a finish (myself included, I find I bet marginal spots on unders but skip marginal spots on overs)

Yeah, whilst Reem def has a higher arsenal and better kicks than JDS, JDS's fast hands and good boxing technique will definitely hurt Reem in the standup and he will fold, like u said, he has the tendency of folding due to strikes, but I still think Reem is pretty live in that fight, except for Cain, there arent any real challengers to JDS belt at this point.

I'm curious what the stats are in big boxing/mma fights for over/under betting. Every major fight is hyped to end be a knockout (obviously).

Let's hope so.

A striker as dangerous as Overeem is always live for sure, I mean the guy managed to get a win against Badr Hari, arguably the most talented HW kickboxer in the world. But I just think with his aversion to damage and JDS' power with four ounce gloves on...combined with Overeem's massive hype...let's just say I think there's gonna be big value on this fight.

Have to remember JDS did take down Carwin who has legitimate wrestling, if he gets uncomfortable standing he could shoot for a takedown on Overeem (assuming he's conscious) which is something he simply hasn't needed to do against anyone yet - it's not like he's a one dimensional striker with good TDD, he apparently has an elite ground game as well he just hasn't ever needed to use it. Overeeem has been submitted before, so that's a possibility as well if JDS is finding it hard to hang on the feet (which I doubt, I think he's a better striker than Reem anyway, I mean, Reem almost got outstruck by Werdum in their second fight and we saw what happened when Werdum stood with JDS)

The only reason JDS was capable of taking down Carwin was because Carwin was fatigued as hell. JDS isn't a one dimensional fighter most likely, but his performance inside the Octagon has been one-dimensional, though that doesnt mean he's bad, or hasnt been owning people, he most certainly has. His hands/chin and TDD are just so good that he can own people doing only one thing.

surprised that people don't think that Machida can KO Henderson. sure hendo has never been finished, but Rashad/Thigago have both only ever been stopped once and that was by machida. (even jones couldn't stop Rashad) also bader has never been KO'd/TKO'd before Machida.

ontop of that is that henderson is no longer in his prime, and eventually everyone's chin goes,+ he has never been hit the way Machida hits people. Shogun dropped some bombs on him but if you look at the way Machida KO's people, he lures them right into the hit, and hits them with precise accuracy.

if you look at his KO over bader, idc who you are.. that shot is putting you on your ass, and henderson can be very agressive

Damn, this thread straight died for a few days.

Anyways, there's a potentially interesting situation on 5D with the Cain/JDS prop lines, want to get you all's take on it. Right now we have:

JDS ITD -143
Cain ITD +216

Imo, this fight ends via stoppage the vast majority of the time, one of these two is finishing before the end of the 5th. With that, I think these two ITD lines create a decent scalping opportunity. Thoughts?

Tbh, I'm still rather new to sports betting, and thus far I've only focused on capping and betting where I see value in incorrect lines, so I may be off on this.

Have you guys seen this video of Cain injuring his ACL 2 weeks prior to the last JDS fight?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1czyQ9XVF8w

With both in shape I believe this is a 50/50 fight will place 1U on Cain in the distance as I think it's good value.

JDS ITD @-143 is good value
Cain ITD +216 is not good value, at fight time Cain likely hit +210 and you likely get Cain ITD +240. Cain already hit +176 and we not even 1 week away.

Yeah I'd be surprised if this went the distance no matter who won.

If you wait til fight time though, I'd expect the fight ITD line to be worse than what it is right now (which is -685). And you really think Cain will get to +210? That would suprise me, but idk. Either way, thanks for the input.