Meh Condit got rickrolled by Rory Mac for 2 rounds until an all time ? stoppage w/ like 5 secs to go

50/50 Craig was about to be down 17-20

Cariaso is one of my biggest plays on this card.

I got Ferg but only for .25u as a value play

rory mac is top 10 though, natal isn't exactly a top 10 guy. still, craig has some potential and is probably looking at KOTN or FOTN there a reasonable % of the time so he should have some bonus money coming his way

I just don't think he's good, and he's small as well. Cariaso is reasonably good on the other hand.

In pure units wagered Cariaso is my biggest play of the card too so far

Ur prbly right. I bet ev fight tho, either a side or length

Commentator: we could see one of these guys fight for the belt by next year

Yeah, about that. I know Flyweight isn't deep, but Ferguson's career has consisted of losing to UFC caliber fighters and beating cans.

Cariaso on the other hand... he could. I don't see him beating Dodson, McCall, Benavidez or MM but who knows.

Ok, Cariaso better win after this or i'm going to look pretty dumb. He recently went to a SD with Michael McDonald and beat Vaughan Lee whereas Ferguson just finished getting choked out by Roland Delorme, so it'd have to be a pretty major upset. I think true line is closer to -450 or -500.

I bet most fights too, just partial unit plays for the sweats and multiple unit bets for the value ones. Only fight today I don't have a play on yet is Te Huna/Beltran.

He'll get it backstage if it's not one of the announced IMO

Ur right obv about Rory but I would say getting tossed around the cage for 2 rds is a bigger indictment than a guy getting you w/ a shot. Craig only had 7 fights under his belt too.

I edited and added a little more to that post btw

can see ferguson getting tko'd

hint to cariaso if you're on top in half guard DON'T LET HIM UP

10-9 Cariaso

Ferguson looks better than expected, but I expect Cariaso should be able to finish him or at least win all 3 rounds

This is like saying Craig just KO'd Natal w/o giving any context. He def won the first 2 rds until a flash knockdown that Delorme capitalized on in the 3rd.

Delorme just beat Nick Denis (who had some hype until the L) too. He's 2-0 in the UFC.

20-18
6 minute round and we were looking at TKO (Elbows) there

i may have overstated things

i think ferguson deserves a third UFC fight after this even if he gets 30-27'd or stopped in the third, but what I meant is, cariaso is better at everything

honestly that was impressive by ferguson, the whole performance really. he should get a third ufc fight after that, and he won my respect

not sure if 30-27 or 29-28 Cariaso, could go either way but he won pretty clearly.

Overall i was impressed, both guys performed very well. Cariaso had some amazing trips and decent striking and Ferguson defended well and had his own moments.

Shouldn't Ferg have won the 3rd on at least one of the judge's cards? Didn't watch that fight closely at all tho

Good cash Swoop. I'd still prbly bet Ferg at +3XX again tho

Lots of late money on bruce leeroy. got on him at slightly better than evens earlier today but only half unit play. he's usually entertaining though, hope he can get a win

Cariaso got some takedowns too and landed better strikes for the first 3:30 or so. Ferguson didn't actually do any damage. I think it was an either way round (hence my 'either 30-27 or 29-28' comment) but I see why it was 30-27.

I think in hindsight the line was around -350 or so for Cariaso. He made a couple of tactical errors like letting Ferguson up in r1, and I feel like Ferguson performed 'above average' for his ability (although granted Cariaso probably did too)

I'd bet Cariaso in a rematch up to -300 or so, or Ferguson at +500ish and stay away anywhere inbetween

Could be value on both though in their next fights especially if Ferguson draws a very weak Flyweight which he should given he's a loss away from being cut.

Suddenly wish I was on the other side of this one. Correct gameplan for Page, bumrush him, takedown, relentless pressure. Didn't think he'd be that smart.

wow i thought caceres had him there

impressive

never would have thought bruce leeroy by sub but it looks possible atm

caceres might be the most entertaining fighter in the ufc

amazing. who would have known bruce leeroy had a ground game. sick triangles, i love it

good thing for me that page has bad sub d i guess

he does have amazing fights, i'm a big fan

if he keeps developing his ground game he can strike with reckless abandon like anderson then rely on subs from his back on the ground. impressive.

Well on the plus side most of my parlays are live heading into the main card

Up about a unit or two for the card atm I think, not sure exactly. If Njokuani and/or Lee wins, i'll be in pretty good shape for Simpson to close out a lot of my parlays

he doesnt get silvas 5 rounds tho :/