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07-11-2012 , 03:00 PM

#3076

Machinehead

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 4,050

GL, you got a few more plays than I do.

I was considering a small play on A-train but I don't know much on Robertson. I saw his fight with Lucio and he looked okay. The Ko was kinda flukish.

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07-11-2012 , 03:00 PM

#3077

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

Added 0.5u on a Cariaso+Simpson+Carmont parlay at +141ish

0.1u to win 2.8u on those three + Lee and Njokuani

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07-11-2012 , 03:01 PM

#3078

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

Going to add some 3 and 4-fight combinations too

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07-11-2012 , 03:57 PM

#3079

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

Made a 1/4 unit play on Tamura for the sweat and since when in doubt take the underdog, added a quarter on Njokuani and then added a heap of 0.1u 3-4-5 fight parlays containing a bunch of my overall picks, and a couple 0.05u parlays containing 6-7-8 combinations of my picks

Overall i'm most heavily invested in Cariaso, Lee, Munoz, Simpson and Njokuani winning, smaller on Guimaraes, Natal, Cacares, Tamura and Carmont, with no action yet on Beltran/Te Huna yet. Need to go about 3/5 from both groups to end the card in the black (or 4/5 in the former group would be enough probably if I get 1-2 in the latter etc.)

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07-11-2012 , 04:13 PM

#3080

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

Beltran in shape looks weird. I'm used to him being fat.

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07-11-2012 , 04:30 PM

#3081

Machinehead

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 4,050

Beltran still has weight to lose. If he was shredded he could make 185.

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07-11-2012 , 04:42 PM

#3082

just_mo

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Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by Provolone

You aren't citing concrete things, you are just citing random qualities, changing your definition of "deserving" based on who you are talking about. Your "criteria" shouldn't change per fighter.
The best definition of who is closest is asking Dana White straight up. Who you think is deserving, is your business. I am not sure how you can say with so much confidence that because Stann only has "1 win going so far", he isn't close, since immediate rematches and examples like Cain come up all the time...

So how much do you want to bet, that when you ask Dana, straight up, who is closer to a title shot, Bisping or Belcher, he says Bisping? I would bet a lot that he does. You won't answer the question...

lol who cares what DW thinks? He is insanely biased and kind of a moron when it comes to certain things. He literally thought Spencer Fisher beat Sam Stout 30-27. The vagaries of his leanings are not something I'm gonna delve in.

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07-11-2012 , 04:45 PM

#3083

just_mo

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Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Added Simpson/Dillashaw/Te Huna parlay at + money.

Final play is gonna be Andrew Craig -155 just because Sapo is awful and Craig looked like a fluid athlete with some skills in his debut.

Props plays: Tiny on Weidman inside distance +310, Te Huna inside distance -160, Robertson/Simpson goes distance +125

GL all, will be around after card since I don't think I'll be watching live.

Last edited by just_mo; 07-11-2012 at 04:51 PM.

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07-11-2012 , 05:26 PM

#3084

DannyOcean_

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Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 28,336

I'm big on the over 2.5 of Craig/Natal between -170 and -190. Craig has 6 of his 7 career fights going over 2.5, and some of those are low-level crappy fighters that he still went to decision against. All four of Natal's UFC bouts have been decisions. I think that's my strongest bet on this card, and I don't see a ton of super-obvious value anywhere else.

I'm small on caceres as well.

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07-11-2012 , 05:43 PM

#3085

Jaymun

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

Thinking about Scalping Lee to win and Dillishaw by decision, I can't see Dillishaw finishing any half decent fighters

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07-11-2012 , 05:47 PM

#3086

Onlydo2days

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Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Weidman -140 vs Munoz +130

I've already gone on the record as narrowly favouring Munoz here, and if a fight is close to a flip we take the dog.

My pick: Munoz
My odds play recommendation: Munoz

Te Huna -340 vs Beltran +320

Te Huna should be able to find his chin and get the TKO, but when big guys who hit hard (especially HWs who are in better shape than normal after dropping to LHW) they're always a chance. Beltran isn't great but he isn't terrible and has power.

My pick: Te Huna
My odds play recommendation: lean Beltran (I think he wins slightly over 1 in 4 times, which makes +320 the right play although only small if at all)

Simpson -290 vs Robertson +275

Simpson is a solid upper-mid level wrestler, who beats the no name guys and loses to contenders. Robertson doesn't have a wiki, I had to look him up on Sherdog and have never seen him fight. His best win is Lucio Linhares, who himself lost to every contender he faced. I expect Simpson to gnp or 30-27 him.

My pick: Simpson
My odds play recommendation: Simpson

Carmont -190 vs Vemola +180

Vemola is cutting to MW for the first time. Carmont has looked good against mediocre guys. Vemola's best win is Petruzelli. Size may be worrying. Carmont trains with GSP and has potential. I think he gets the win (was shocked to see 411mania went 4-1 predicting Vemola here)

My pick: Carmont
My odds play recommendation: lean Carmont but could be convinced otherwise

Njokuani +175 vs Dos Anjos -185

Two guys i've bet on a lot who have burned me a lot. They both have amazing potential but underperform in key fights. Either Njokuani's going to light him up standing if Dos Anjos fights like he did against Tibau, or Dos Anjos is going to win easily if he fights like he did against Guida, G-Sot etc.

My pick: I have no idea
My odds play recommendation: lean Njokuani I guess, since he's a decent dog. Can be convinced otherwise.

Dillashaw -370 vs Lee +350

Lee's underrated, and didn't let me down as a huge dog to Yamamoto. Dillashaw has way more potential of the two, but he has a glass chin. He'll probably lnp a decision, but Lee has a shot both standing and to get a sub.

My pick: Dillashaw wins over half the time but nowhere near enough
My odds play recommendation: Lee

Page -130 vs Caceres +140 (+119 at up to date books)

Page has an old win over Jorgensen and has fought MUCH better competition of the two, but lost all of the fights to the people that are good except a win that came 4 years ago. That said, Bruce Leeroy is improving fast, and deserved to beat Figueria (and I had bet Figueira)

I kinda want to pick Caceres due to the potential he's shown, but my head is telling me not to

My pick: No idea
My odds play: No idea

Assuncao -180 vs Tamura +180

Tamura got me a win over Tiequan but it was a bet against Tiequan, not on Tamura. Assuncao is basically a gatekeeper who loses to good fighters and beats bad fighters.

My pick: Lean Assuncao probably
My odds play: No idea, willing to be persuaded

Craig -140 vs Natal +135

Honestly haven't watched enough of eithers fights to have any idea. Natal is more of a proven commodity with a win over Lutter. Craig has a win over Noke. Anyone remember how impressive that was? I didn't see it.

My pick: No idea
My odds play: No idea

Cariaso -295 vs Ferguson +290

Cariaso is a good fighter, Ferguson is a TUF reject. Cariaso wins easily and Ferguson gets cut.

My pick: Cariaso
My odds play: Cariaso

Stittgen +325 vs Guimaraes -345

Stittgen is absolutely awful and my only memory of him is the way he stood in front of Wonderboy (who has since been exposed as one dimensional) and waited to get hit. The other guy doesn't even have a wiki, but is a 7-0 brazilian prospect. That alone is enough to favour him over Stittgen who frankly isn't a UFC caliber fighter. Question is, how good is he and does it warrant the odds?

My pick: Guimaraes
My odds play: No idea

Overall:

I think i'll take Munoz, odds bet on Lee, Cariaso + Simpson parlay or bet each individually not sure.

May also play Carmont, Njokuani, Caceres, Beltran, Natal, and either side on the last two depending on what you guys have to say.

Just curious where do you get those types of odds? Must be an aussie thing or something...

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07-11-2012 , 05:58 PM

#3087

DannyOcean_

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Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 28,336

10-9 rafael pretty easy

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07-11-2012 , 05:59 PM

#3088

DodgerIrish

Fraudulent Zodiac

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,182

Make me back that WNBA $$$ Raphy

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07-11-2012 , 06:00 PM

#3089

DodgerIrish

Fraudulent Zodiac

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,182

EZPZ Lemon Squeezee

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07-11-2012 , 06:01 PM

#3090

SwoopAE

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WP Assuncao. Tamura looked out of his depth there. Glad I only made a tiny bet on him for the sweat.

Taking the under for the next fight for a unit, unknown brazilian vs one of the worst fighters in the UFC, chances are someone's going out cold or tapping and chances are it's stittgen going down

Also lol at stittgen's UFC highlights including two weak legkicks and a takedown attempt he didn't commit to

Last edited by SwoopAE; 07-11-2012 at 06:06 PM.

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07-11-2012 , 06:01 PM

#3091

Jaymun

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

My streak holds true, I've never won a bet on an East-Asian fighter.

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07-11-2012 , 06:04 PM

#3092

DodgerIrish

Fraudulent Zodiac

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,182

Well you obv don't fade Okami often

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07-11-2012 , 06:06 PM

#3093

DodgerIrish

Fraudulent Zodiac

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,182

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Taking the under for the next fight for half a unit, unknown brazilian vs one of the worst fighters in the UFC, chances are someone's going out cold.

I did the same before the line movement.

If Danny boy is gonna just stand in front of Wonderboy he obv has no gameplanning

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07-11-2012 , 06:18 PM

#3094

DannyOcean_

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Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 28,336

worst round i've seen in a while. 10-9 Guimaraes although it's close to a 10-10.

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07-11-2012 , 06:18 PM

#3095

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

Stittgen's wrestling coach seems to be a good cornerman, kept yelling instructions

Shame Stittgen can't manage any offense or close to it.

Hopefully G-hardtorponounce-hares can get the TD this time and finish him

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07-11-2012 , 06:18 PM

#3096

DodgerIrish

Fraudulent Zodiac

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,182

Nice thought Swoop, not gonna happen for us tho

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07-11-2012 , 06:20 PM

#3097

SwoopAE

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Evidently not as he seems content to hold him against the cage and Stittgen seems content to do nothing of significance

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07-11-2012 , 06:21 PM

#3098

DannyOcean_

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stittgen's hands are so low. it's unreal that stittgen is winning the striking, his hands are literally at his belt

this fight is unreal terrible. stittgen's standup looks pathetic and yet guimaraes looks worse somehow.

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07-11-2012 , 06:23 PM

#3099

DannyOcean_

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stittgen's kicks are hilariously terrible. seriously, this might be the worst two stand up fighters in the UFC.

19-19 i guess but both men should be embarassed and/or cut and/or shot.

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07-11-2012 , 06:24 PM

#3100

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

FINALLY Rosental breaks their cage leaning

Not sure who won r2, if its on damage it's Stittgen. Cage leaning brazilian wins r1

We all lose for watching this fight though. Kinda hope stittgen can tko him now since that's the only way my bet wins, and gwhateverhares is only in a couple $5 parlays

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