Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Weidman -140 vs Munoz +130
I've already gone on the record as narrowly favouring Munoz here, and if a fight is close to a flip we take the dog.
My pick: Munoz
My odds play recommendation: Munoz
Te Huna -340 vs Beltran +320
Te Huna should be able to find his chin and get the TKO, but when big guys who hit hard (especially HWs who are in better shape than normal after dropping to LHW) they're always a chance. Beltran isn't great but he isn't terrible and has power.
My pick: Te Huna
My odds play recommendation: lean Beltran (I think he wins slightly over 1 in 4 times, which makes +320 the right play although only small if at all)
Simpson -290 vs Robertson +275
Simpson is a solid upper-mid level wrestler, who beats the no name guys and loses to contenders. Robertson doesn't have a wiki, I had to look him up on Sherdog and have never seen him fight. His best win is Lucio Linhares, who himself lost to every contender he faced. I expect Simpson to gnp or 30-27 him.
My pick: Simpson
My odds play recommendation: Simpson
Carmont -190 vs Vemola +180
Vemola is cutting to MW for the first time. Carmont has looked good against mediocre guys. Vemola's best win is Petruzelli. Size may be worrying. Carmont trains with GSP and has potential. I think he gets the win (was shocked to see 411mania went 4-1 predicting Vemola here)
My pick: Carmont
My odds play recommendation: lean Carmont but could be convinced otherwise
Njokuani +175 vs Dos Anjos -185
Two guys i've bet on a lot who have burned me a lot. They both have amazing potential but underperform in key fights. Either Njokuani's going to light him up standing if Dos Anjos fights like he did against Tibau, or Dos Anjos is going to win easily if he fights like he did against Guida, G-Sot etc.
My pick: I have no idea
My odds play recommendation: lean Njokuani I guess, since he's a decent dog. Can be convinced otherwise.
Dillashaw -370 vs Lee +350
Lee's underrated, and didn't let me down as a huge dog to Yamamoto. Dillashaw has way more potential of the two, but he has a glass chin. He'll probably lnp a decision, but Lee has a shot both standing and to get a sub.
My pick: Dillashaw wins over half the time but nowhere near enough
My odds play recommendation: Lee
Page -130 vs Caceres +140 (+119 at up to date books)
Page has an old win over Jorgensen and has fought MUCH better competition of the two, but lost all of the fights to the people that are good except a win that came 4 years ago. That said, Bruce Leeroy is improving fast, and deserved to beat Figueria (and I had bet Figueira)
I kinda want to pick Caceres due to the potential he's shown, but my head is telling me not to
My pick: No idea
My odds play: No idea
Assuncao -180 vs Tamura +180
Tamura got me a win over Tiequan but it was a bet against Tiequan, not on Tamura. Assuncao is basically a gatekeeper who loses to good fighters and beats bad fighters.
My pick: Lean Assuncao probably
My odds play: No idea, willing to be persuaded
Craig -140 vs Natal +135
Honestly haven't watched enough of eithers fights to have any idea. Natal is more of a proven commodity with a win over Lutter. Craig has a win over Noke. Anyone remember how impressive that was? I didn't see it.
My pick: No idea
My odds play: No idea
Cariaso -295 vs Ferguson +290
Cariaso is a good fighter, Ferguson is a TUF reject. Cariaso wins easily and Ferguson gets cut.
My pick: Cariaso
My odds play: Cariaso
Stittgen +325 vs Guimaraes -345
Stittgen is absolutely awful and my only memory of him is the way he stood in front of Wonderboy (who has since been exposed as one dimensional) and waited to get hit. The other guy doesn't even have a wiki, but is a 7-0 brazilian prospect. That alone is enough to favour him over Stittgen who frankly isn't a UFC caliber fighter. Question is, how good is he and does it warrant the odds?
My pick: Guimaraes
My odds play: No idea
Overall:
I think i'll take Munoz, odds bet on Lee, Cariaso + Simpson parlay or bet each individually not sure.
May also play Carmont, Njokuani, Caceres, Beltran, Natal, and either side on the last two depending on what you guys have to say.