I favor DC at about 60/40 and I think +300 on Gus is thin value do not make sense. If Gus is 40% to win +300 is absurd value, that's just math.

That said I would certainly like having Gus dec +700 more than ML +300

Id be so happy if Gastelum opens a fav, I dont think it will happen though

Plays so far

0.7u Johnson -153
0.1u Glover -110
0.1u Alvey +350
0.1u Bamgbrose +330 (can't resist always fading Hall at this point taking dogs)
0.1u Vera -127
0.05u Glover+Johnson+Alvey+Rosholt+Borg+Ortiz+Vera+Holtz man +5365

Will wait for weigh in, may go bigger on Johnson and potentially add more on Alvey, and maybe Vera as I was really unimpressed with Salazar against a pretty done Kid Yamamoto; he was losing that fight badly before the premature end to the fight

Alvey won't win a decision but he's got dynamite in his hands and has put together a few good wins lately so will def take a shot on him as a decent dog; i'd have assumed he'd be +180 to +200 prior to seeing lines. Bamgbrose is apparently an active striker and Hall is so good at being passive and giving fights away i'll take anyone who throws volume at +3xx against him

I'd bet on Gastelum opening at a shorter price than Brown probably. I haven't decided which way I go on the actual fight yet, it'll come down to is Gastelum willing to go the Tristar gameplan and LnP basically, because if he wants to stand and trade that won't go well for him, but if he comes to grapple only he can probably grind Brown out to a 30-27 or catch him in a sub if Brown gets careless. If he doesn't spam takedowns, I think Brown will break him eventually although I expect it to be competitive

If I was the book i'd probably open the lines at Gastelum -150 Brown +120 or thereabouts (no, i'm not offering those prices) but I wouldn't be shocked to see it open -110 both sides or Gastelum as a bigger fav. I would be shocked to see Brown open at -150 despite his great performance at 189. I think Sect7G is going to be REALLY happy with the opening line and probably get Brown at evens or better

I agree with you about wanting to fade Hall.

I like:

Bamgbose wins by TKO/KO +600

When he wins it is by KO I don't see him winning a decision almost ever.

also like:

Alvey (scorecards = no action) +200

IMO when Alvey wins it is ITD.

EDIT: wp, math is not my strong suit

excellent.... (insert Monty Burns' voice)

My question is who has Gastellum taken down? Sure Hendriks (who got in amazing shape for the 1st time) did it. But other than that I can't recall him using TD's at all against anyone relevant.

Gastellum has fast hands and good combos so I think he might try his luck on the feet. Unfortunately for him Brown has a great chin (recovers well) and the first person to fade won't be Brown. The real problem for Gastellum is when you get tired vs. Brown it's like being in the ring with a 1st round Tyson. Brown's vicious and doesn't let you off the hook.

Added 0.45u Alvey wins scorecards no action +209 and 0.05u Alvey wins in r1 +925

Not sure why people still think Gustafson will be able to compete with the best in the world. Outside of one fight against Jones he has done nothing to prove that he can.

+700 via dec probably has value but don't see any value in a +300 ML.

3 Team Parlay

10 to win 46

Glover
Dariush
Borg

///

3 Team Parlay

10 to win 11

Brunson
Borg
McMann

///

OSP/Glover o1.5 - 4u

Glover - 4u ML

OSP r1 - 0.5 u.
OSP r2 - 0.5 u.
OSP TKO - 1u

Dariush r3 - 0.5u
Dariush by sub - 0.5u
Darish - 1.5u ML

Saenz - 1.5u ML

Alvey by KO - 0.5u

Alvey (scorecards = no action) - 1u

Nunes (scorecards = no action) - 2u

Nunes ITD - 1u

Watson - 1u ML

TJ 1.5u ML

Bamgbose TKO/KO 0.5u

Borg/Hererra o1.5 - 1.5u

Wilson by KO - 1u

Holtzman/Christodoulou o1.5 - 1.5u

Christodoulou ITD - 0.5u

thinking about unloading on johnson, im not impressed w darush's stand up. anyone w me?

edit: read some previous pages, as always, there is some good insight here, time to re-eval...

I am, I would have been bigger when it was -13x but on for 0.7u at -153 atm and might add more when i've looked at weighins etc or last minute

I think Dariush will get him down and sub him occasionally, but have Johnson closer to -200 in my estimation as he should win the standup and is more active if it goes the distance

One of the sharpest guys I know is on Dariush though so that's why i'm not going bigger. I still think Johnson will TKO or decision him a lot

Anyone else like Alvey wins in r1 at +9xx? Seems really good to me that's the most likely way he wins, the +209 scorecards no action is great too, he'll usually lose a decision but hasn't been finished in his last four losses and is a hell of a finisher himself and while Brunson is quite good he did get flattened by Romero when he finally connected (granted Romero is better than Alvey, but he's similarly inactive and Alvey has huge KO power)

I wish Sam Alvey and Uriah Hall were fighting each other.

I want someone to force Hall to fight his best or knock him out (or both).

Can't break Gastelum, he will out mma Brown.

isn't that enough?
Don't forget his 3round d win over shogun.

I'm on Dariush at +130 and Dariush by submission too, but Johnson is very dangerous if it stays on the feet.

I like Not Brunson ITD at -198 because Alvey has only been stopped once and that prop covers a Brunson DEC or Alvey KO or unlikely DEC. I also bet Alvey scorecards=no action at +200 because he will most likely win by KO if he wins at all and it's a push if it goes to a losing decision. I also put a flyer on Alvey wins in round 1 & 3 because he seems to either get a quick KO or he starts slow and then wakes up in the third round.

Like your plays on the Alvey/Brunson fight only I left the not Brunson TKO out personally as i'll take the push if Brunson decisions him

I'm tempted to add more on Johnson then take Dariush sub to hedge, but will decide later

Borg missed weight but barely

Brown opened at +111 and quickly the money came on Gastelum, Brown currently at +140 on 5d and +144 best price available, which is closer to what I expected it to open at

Lamas opens as a huge fav over Sanchez as expected

Lawler opens -145 to Condit +115, in a 5 rounder should be interesting, I lean Lawler at that price I think but only if he's willing to use some offensive wrestling to make Condit fear the takedown, if he decides to stand and bang it's a pick'em fight, if i'm forced to pick with my life on the line I take current Lawler I think. I'm a bigger fan of Condit's though, would be great to see him win the belt, but Lawler has some serious heart and has won me over after his last few fights

Huge steam on Kakai, and to a lesser extent on Watson, Rosholt, OSP and Dempsey

Hey guys what bookie would you recommend? Im using pinnacle atm but its very limited and bets appear quite late.

Would like to be able to use Neteller or Skrill to make deposit.

Thanks

Ac+600 4 units
Oluwale+327
Dempsey+133
Mj-152

Is this real life ? Let see what Kelly says...

UFN 73 Risk $2229.21

Glover Teixeira (+100) vs Ovince Saint Preux $300.00 for $300.00
Ovince Saint Preux/Glover Teixeira Over 1½ (-145) $290.00 for $200.00
Ovince Saint Preux wins in round 1 (+450) $40.00 for $180.00
Ovince Saint Preux wins in round 2 (+675) $40.00 for $270.00
Ovince Saint Preux wins by 5 round decision (+735) $25.00 for $183.75
Glover Teixeira wins by submission (+422) $25.00 for $105.50
Glover Teixeira wins in round 3 (+875) $10.00 for $87.50
Glover Teixeira wins in round 4 (+1275) $10.00 for $127.50
Beneil Dariush (+135) vs Michael Johnson $100.00 for $135.00
Beneil Dariush wins by submission (+270) $25.00 for $67.50
Sam Alvey scorecards = no action (+200) vs Derek Brunson $50.00 for $100.00
Not Derek Brunson inside distance (-198) $198.00 for $100.00
Sam Alvey wins in round 1 (+925) $10.00 for $92.50
Sam Alvey wins in round 3 (+1750) $10.00 for $175.00
Jared Rosholt -3½ points (-155) vs Timothy Johnson $100.00 for $64.52
Jared Rosholt wins by submission (+1005) $10.00 for $100.50
Sara McMann wins in round 3 (+1175) vs Amanda Nunes $10.00 for $117.50
Ray Borg wins by submission (+110) vs Geane Herrera $30.00 for $33.00

Uriah Hall wins by TKO/KO (+109) vs Oluwale Bamgbose $30.00 for $32.70
Tom Watson (+130) vs Chris Camozzi $100.00 for $130.00
Dustin Ortiz -3½ points (-195) vs Willie Gates $97.50 for $50.00
Dustin Ortiz wins by submission (+290) $25.00 for $72.50
Dustin Ortiz wins in round 3 (+900) $10.00 for $90.00
Frankie Saenz (-125) vs Sirwan Kakai $125.00 for $100.00
Franie Saenz wins by 3 round decision (+140) $35.71 for $50.00

Chris Dempsey (+135) vs Jonathan Wilson $40.00 for $54.00
Chris Dempsey wins by 3 round decision (+270) $25.00 for $67.50
Marlon Vera (-135) vs Roman Salazar $67.50 for $50.00
Marlon Vera wins inside distance (+215) $20.00 for $43.00
Scott Holtzman -3½ points (-385) vs Anthony Christodoulou $115.50 for $30.00

Fights to go distance over 5½ (-157) $47.10 for $30.00
Fights to go distance over 6½ (+158) $22.90 for $36.18
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+393) $25.00 for $98.25

Amanda Nunes/Sara McMann FOTN award winner (+1675) $10.00 for $167.50

Parlays:
Dustin Ortiz (-450) + Tom Watson/Chris Camozzi Over 2½ (-255) + Ray Borg (-500) $100.00 for $104.18

Sirwan Kakai/Frankie Saenz Over 2½ (-260) + Dustin Ortiz (-400) + Tom Watson/Chris Camozzi Over 2½ (-255) + Uriah Hall (-370) + Ray Borg (-490) + Derek Brunson (-465) + Beneil Dariush (+135) + Glover Teixeira (+100) $50.00 for $1002.31

geez. sounds like a fun night lol

Added 0.2u each on Kakai and Dempsey since theyre steaming hard and made it a full unit on Johnson

This is ludicrous. Unbelievable how Brown gets dismissed by odds makers.

Obv. the UFC wants Gastellum to compete for the belt as they gave him Woodley (ranked 3 at the time) when Gastellum was ranked 9th and now they want to give him his best chance out of the top 5 with Brown and if he wins give him a title shot.

Fortunately I'm going to go huge on Brown and I think the odds may get even better come fight time.

Betting pleb but i was surprised at how many of you favored Brown. Gastelum is a very good fighter. If he makes it through camp OK and make weight without problem i definitely think he is the favorite.