22-19, +0.34u, ROI: 2%

Thank you very much sir.

Any tipps for today ?

Stoke +0.5 6 Units- Liverpool are still massively overated and Stoke don't lose at home. If the better Merseyside can't go there and win neither can Liverpool.

+1

Forgot to include @1.72

just going to start autobetting 1 unit on united in play every time they go behind regardless of price

Stoke City!!!! Thanks guys!

Burnley +0.25 2 Units @1.97

Sorry for dp couldn't work out how to edit.

Enhanced Special Accumulator Man City. Arsenal snd Man United all to win at 5.00

Looking at the current pinny lines,

1.578, 1.308, 1.408 Which would give 2.906. Now I imagine the vig is greater on these sides than the others but at 5.00 this parlay is almost certainly +EV?

If those odds are all correct, then yes. But for instance, Pinny closed at around 1.44 on Arsenal (v Newcastle).

Italian Serie A - Udinese v Fiorentina - Both Teams To Score - 1.8 (Bet365)

English Premier League - Arsenal v Man City - Both Teams To Score - 1.62 (Ladbrokes)

Afternoon chaps,

Made a thread re model development if anyone is interested. Gist of it (perhaps better in this thread!):

Hey guys,

A little background: I spent 5 years working in demand forecasting for a large power company in the UK and now work in energy trading. I'm reasonably comfortable with stats, programming and risk/expected value etc.

I am looking to develop a model mostly out of curiosity to calculate the odds UK football matches. I have a couple of questions as I start to plan my approach (currently focussing on a basic combination of home/away team expectations and refining):

- How are promotions/relegations treated with historic data? Assuming I have data from the last 5 years.

- On a similar note, do we run into issues of sample size at the start of a new season?

- I have read much about poisson/zero interest poisson online. ZIP seems to provide a better fit but even then there are proponents of regular poisson.

- Am I right in thinking if I decide to use home/away stats for the last x years any home advantage factor would be included in the derived odds?

Thanks for any pointers, pitfalls or discussion. I understand people may not be willing to discuss specific functionality of working models!

Harry Redknap has a face like a melted pig and is a massive ****.

hello punters

Turkey » PTT 1. Lig

Manisaspor vs Karsiyaka

14 Karsiyaka player's left and 2 are injured so they have just 9 seniors players available on trainig and they must take some youngsters

http://www.yesilkirmizi.net/haberdetay.asp?ID=8306

Banahene (topscorer 16/6) and Oner (df 3/0) are injured while Makukula (att 10/3) , Fatih Sen (mf 15/3), Türkmehmet (mf 6/0), Yalciner (att 8/0), Gungnor (df 16/1), Solakel (df 16/0), Aktas (mf 12/0), Akbay (14/0), Tasdelen (df 16/0), Gurol (mf 4/0), Adican (df 16/0), ozcan (3/0), kocabey (mf 5/0), Yalçiner Taha (mf 8/0)..

Manisa is currently leading table and doing great for title and promotion and there wasn't important changes.

Manisaspor -1 @ 1.90 on my local bookie

Lolchelsea

Brazil Paulista

Linense vs Guarani

Guarani in huge problems. They relegate from Brazil Serie B last season,Guarani have financial problems and almost all first team players left team.

Players who leave club: key defender Rodrigo Arroz(df 26/1),Neto(df 11/0),Leone(df 17/0),Fernando(df 17/2),Bahia(mf 37/0),Kleiton Domingues(mf 19/3), best midifler Sacramento(mf 32/4 ,2nd scorer),Jackson(mf 27/0),Lusmar(mf 6/0),Oliveira(mf 7/0),Thiguainho(att 9/0),and attacking duo Ronaldo(att 21/3 ,3rd scorer) e best player Schwenck(att 25/8 top scorer).


Linense DNB (AH +0) @ 1.75 on my local bookie

Manisaspor vs Karsiyaka 1-0 (bet void)

Linense vs Guarani 2-1 (bet won)

Thankfully I had Manisaspor on a straight win.

Thanks for tip.

glad for you mackem


Portugal – SuperLiga

Moreirense vs Benfica

Moreirense is the weakest team in the league. They have only 8 points so far and thay will fight to escape from relegation zone althoug that will be very tough. Moreirense plus will have few important absences for this match.
4 suspended players: Augusto Loureiro (df 14/0), Filipe Goncalves (mf 13/0), Fabio Espinho (mf 14/1), Wagner Borges (mf 14/1). Also are injured Paulo ‘Paulinho’ Mota (df 3/0), Castro Miguel (mf 2/0), Pablo Olivera (mf 8/2) so their weak squad is now much weaker...all this players (except ‘Paulinho’ Mota & Castro Miguel) are important and standard players and that will be big problem for this team because they don't have deep roster and they can't find good replacements.
Benfica is a leaders. They are having one great team. They will fight for the title with Porto. Benfica must win this games. Benfica in midweek played in the cup and won easy against Academica 0:4. Benfica is having great midfield and they will have totaly control on the pitch. Their attack is powerful. Their defense is solid but also in my opinion they will not much job because Benfica will control the game.

Benfica AH -1.5 @ 1.80 on my local bookie

Moreirense vs Benfica 0-2 (bet won)

Spain - Cup

Valencia vs Real Madrid

Last week this two teams met in league and Real Madrid destroy them, on half time result was 0-5 for Real.
Today Valencia will be even weaker ,Mathieu(df 3/0),Parejo(mf 11/0),Albelda(mf 10/0) and best striker Soldado(att 19/11 top scorer) are injured,Feghouli(mf 14/3) is on AFCON,while Gago(mf 13/0) will be rested.
Real Madrid miss only Marcelo,Kaka,Ramos and Pepe,but they have enough quality players. + Real Madrid lost almost all chances to win league so now their targets are Champions League and Copa del Rey.


Real Madrid -0.5 @ 1.72 on my local book

Real Madrid is listed -1 @ 2.05 on Bovada. Still a value selection?

FRGCardinal

there are better odds on the net

Bovada = Americans tho