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Old 04-27-2021, 11:13 PM   #6851
tsourek10
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

guys you dont feel man city is way better than other teams so be a good bet to win the ch l? or once more pep starts overthinking the games and this may cause the loss of champions league trophy again?
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Old 04-28-2021, 07:02 AM   #6852
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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guys you dont feel man city is way better than other teams so be a good bet to win the ch l? or once more pep starts overthinking the games and this may cause the loss of champions league trophy again?
better yes, way better, not so sure about that, especially with aguero having knee issues as he's a huge source of goals and there's a huge dropoff from his to jesus

foden is emerging this year but that too is offset by kdb also having injury issues and their defense not being all that great either

current odds to win it all on pinny is +130, this implies a break even rate of them winning 43% of the time

i think that line is good, especially considering the line for MCI advancing to next round is -180 (64%) - i think it's a safe assumption that PSG is better than either CHE/RMA so betting the +130 would be better option since that's the equivalent of sweeping two matches they have a 65% chance to win

so definitely some value there to be had, there's definitely some arbitrage between their current matchup and matchup to win it all, could probably hedge it effectively betting on both MCI to win and PSG to win this round - always a chance you could middle yourself though when you try to get cute where psg beat mci but lose to chelsea or something

real issue though is that MCI has not looked very dominant recently, barely beating bvb, avl and tot, losing to leeds and chelsea - it could be argued they are only tops in the epl this year because they fell to a lesser degree than other teams did

having said all that, i think mci +130 is a good line just nothing to back up the truck for, looking this over got me interested in psg at +325, might bet both those sides actually
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Old 04-28-2021, 12:48 PM   #6853
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
i think that line is good, especially considering the line for MCI advancing to next round is -180 (64%) - i think it's a safe assumption that PSG is better than either CHE/RMA so betting the +130 would be better option since that's the equivalent of sweeping two matches they have a 65% chance to win
This round isn't a single match, but is home/away. The final is a single match, which means you can't just transitively say that if PSG is better than the winner of RMA/CHE, that MCI will also be >64% in the final.
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Old 04-28-2021, 01:11 PM   #6854
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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This round isn't a single match, but is home/away. The final is a single match, which means you can't just transitively say that if PSG is better than the winner of RMA/CHE, that MCI will also be >64% in the final.
i'm aware of the difference, the -180 was to advance to next round

you could have checked in less time than it took you to post incorrectly that i was wrong https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/u...eague/matchups

and i'd lay very good money that if MCI beats psg, their odds to win the champions league will be worse than -180, probably into -200 neither chelsea nor real madrid are elite this year
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Old 04-28-2021, 03:19 PM   #6855
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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i'm aware of the difference, the -180 was to advance to next round

you could have checked in less time than it took you to post incorrectly that i was wrong https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/u...eague/matchups

and i'd lay very good money that if MCI beats psg, their odds to win the champions league will be worse than -180, probably into -200 neither chelsea nor real madrid are elite this year
You literally said the bet was to sweep 2 matches, i.e. this one (which is 2 matches, not 1) and the next one:

Quote:
so betting the +130 would be better option since that's the equivalent of sweeping two matches they have a 65% chance to win
Your logic is wrong. Whether or not MCI would be -180 or better in the final is irrelevant when you use incorrect logic in the first place.
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Old 04-28-2021, 04:25 PM   #6856
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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You literally said the bet was to sweep 2 matches, i.e. this one (which is 2 matches, not 1) and the next one:



Your logic is wrong. Whether or not MCI would be -180 or better in the final is irrelevant when you use incorrect logic in the first place.
hedgie, it's hilarious you're trying to save face and double down now

maybe you're not a native speaker and don't understand what the word "equivalent" means, but i doubt that, seems like yet another case of your douchebag rage acting up again

for them to advance is -180, about 65%, coincidentally, 65% * 65% is 43% the same as the +130 odds for them to win

hence why if you think the market thinks PSG is better than RMA/CHE then it's better to bet MCI +130 to win the champions league rather than betting -180 now and then what's likely -200 or higher later for the second bit

you should check lines and open dictionaries before posting in the future instead of acting like a tosser just cause you don't like me (and there's plenty not to like about me) doesn't mean i'm automatically wrong, check your confirmation bias at the door, huge leak for a handicapper ldo
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Old 04-28-2021, 05:37 PM   #6857
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

MCI now -150 to ship it

edit: to clarify for hedgie's sake, yes I'm aware that means they still need to get through PSG and it's for winning the champions league not winning the next game
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Old 04-29-2021, 10:44 AM   #6858
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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hedgie, it's hilarious you're trying to save face and double down now

maybe you're not a native speaker and don't understand what the word "equivalent" means, but i doubt that, seems like yet another case of your douchebag rage acting up again

for them to advance is -180, about 65%, coincidentally, 65% * 65% is 43% the same as the +130 odds for them to win

hence why if you think the market thinks PSG is better than RMA/CHE then it's better to bet MCI +130 to win the champions league rather than betting -180 now and then what's likely -200 or higher later for the second bit

you should check lines and open dictionaries before posting in the future instead of acting like a tosser just cause you don't like me (and there's plenty not to like about me) doesn't mean i'm automatically wrong, check your confirmation bias at the door, huge leak for a handicapper ldo
Why would I need to check the lines? My objection was purely based on your logic: that if MCI's fair value is -180 in the semis against PSG and if PSG is a better team than either RMA or CHE, then MCI must be better than -180 in the final. That transitive-type property doesn't work when one matchup is multiple legs and the other is not. Either you weren't aware that one was a 2 leg matchup and the other not or your logic sucks. You pick.
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:25 AM   #6859
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

hedgie, wtf bro

why do you keep on talking about semantics, i clearly said they were -180 to beat PSG and +130 to win overall

betting +130 has a 43% break even rate, -180 has a 65% break even rate and two 65% events have a 43% chance

you keep on harping about semantics because you were convinced i was talking about something else and I wasn't, maybe i should have clarified but this is on you, it's not my fault you just assume i'm an idiot and then proceed from there

had you bothered to check the lines, that would have removed all confusion because then you'd see it's very clear I'm talking about something other than you insist i'm talking about

since PSG is better than either RMA or CHE, it's extremely unlikely that if MCI proceeds to the final that they'd be less of a favorite than they were against PSG, so it's very reasonable to conclude that they'd be worse than -180 and thus if you believed in MCI, the +130 represented very good value

in fact, right now MCI is -150 to win it, and they could still very feasibly lose the next game 2-0 and not even make to the final, which vindicates everything i wrote, that they'll clearly be heavy favorites in the finals so +130 was a good line to bet

since you clearly think i'm a dumbass, we can both escrow 1k with tomg (if he'll agree to that) and challenge you to an epl dfs h2h showdown, we there are 5 main slates until the end of the year, i can create a private league that's free to play, we both enter, whoever scores the most points in those 5 slates and wins the league wins the other's money, we can share a link to the league for tom so he can directly access it to determine the winner

heck, you should even give me odds since you're such an og and i'm clearly a complete idiot

what odds you gonna lay on this for me?
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:48 AM   #6860
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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hedgie, wtf bro

why do you keep on talking about semantics, i clearly said they were -180 to beat PSG and +130 to win overall

betting +130 has a 43% break even rate, -180 has a 65% break even rate and two 65% events have a 43% chance

you keep on harping about semantics because you were convinced i was talking about something else and I wasn't, maybe i should have clarified but this is on you, it's not my fault you just assume i'm an idiot and then proceed from there

had you bothered to check the lines, that would have removed all confusion because then you'd see it's very clear I'm talking about something other than you insist i'm talking about

since PSG is better than either RMA or CHE, it's extremely unlikely that if MCI proceeds to the final that they'd be less of a favorite than they were against PSG, so it's very reasonable to conclude that they'd be worse than -180 and thus if you believed in MCI, the +130 represented very good value

in fact, right now MCI is -150 to win it, and they could still very feasibly lose the next game 2-0 and not even make to the final, which vindicates everything i wrote, that they'll clearly be heavy favorites in the finals so +130 was a good line to bet

since you clearly think i'm a dumbass, we can both escrow 1k with tomg (if he'll agree to that) and challenge you to an epl dfs h2h showdown, we there are 5 main slates until the end of the year, i can create a private league that's free to play, we both enter, whoever scores the most points in those 5 slates and wins the league wins the other's money, we can share a link to the league for tom so he can directly access it to determine the winner

heck, you should even give me odds since you're such an og and i'm clearly a complete idiot

what odds you gonna lay on this for me?
Don't forget to breathe dude. Let's try again:

Quote:
since PSG is better than either RMA or CHE, it's extremely unlikely that if MCI proceeds to the final that they'd be less of a favorite than they were against PSG, so it's very reasonable to conclude that they'd be worse than -180 and thus if you believed in MCI, the +130 represented very good value
For the umpteenth time now, -180 in a 2 leg match is not the same as -180 in a single game. Therefore, you can't use a quasi-transitive property without making a conversion between the two first.

If you actually want to bet on something relevant I'd be happy to wager on MCI not to win the Champions League +148, which gives you a bet 2 cents better than what you're quoting. Escrow with Tom G or other reputable poster is fine. I'll go up to 10k on that, maybe more if you sweet talk me.
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:56 AM   #6861
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Don't forget to breathe dude. Let's try again:



For the umpteenth time now, -180 in a 2 leg match is not the same as -180 in a single game. Therefore, you can't use a quasi-transitive property without making a conversion between the two first.

If you actually want to bet on something relevant I'd be happy to wager on MCI not to win the Champions League +148, which gives you a bet 2 cents better than what you're quoting. Escrow with Tom G or other reputable poster is fine. I'll go up to 10k on that, maybe more if you sweet talk me.
and for the umpteenth time i'm not talking about matches or anything of that sort, you need to remove that information

the amount of competitions don't matter, it doesn't change that mci is -180 to proceed to the final, that line wasn't to win game 1 vs psg, it was to beat psg and move on to final

and i was right since the line is already -150 and thus it's abundantly clear if mci finishes off psg their line to win will be way worse than -180 so if you chose the mci narrative then +130 was a solid line to take

whether or not they needed to play one or two games or even 20 doesn't change the line on that outcome, it's like i said "joey chestnutt is -500 favorite to win the hotdog eating contest" and you respond with "no you idiot it's not like that because he's going to eat over 70 of them"

and lol at not even offering a vfl but 2 cents lol

man up and take the dfs challenge or admit you're afraid of me outcapping you, someone you've called mentally rtarded at least 50 times on 2p2 -this is free money for you
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Old 04-29-2021, 01:12 PM   #6862
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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and for the umpteenth time i'm not talking about matches or anything of that sort, you need to remove that information

the amount of competitions don't matter, it doesn't change that mci is -180 to proceed to the final, that line wasn't to win game 1 vs psg, it was to beat psg and move on to final
Would PSG have been fair +180 in a single elimination, neutral venue match against MCI? Or would the fair line be different for that from a 2 leg tie?

If PSG's line on a single elimination match would be different from that of a 2 leg tie, you can't just transitively say that because PSG is >= CHE/RMA, that the line on the final will be MCI >=-180.
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Old 04-29-2021, 01:21 PM   #6863
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Would PSG have been fair +180 in a single elimination, neutral venue match against MCI? Or would the fair line be different for that from a 2 leg tie?

If PSG's line on a single elimination match would be different from that of a 2 leg tie, you can't just transitively say that because PSG is >= CHE/RMA, that the line on the final will be MCI >=-180.
i wasn't talking single elimination

but even with home advantage psg were closing line +372 for that single game, obviously that's not a clear equivalent cause that's also accounting for a tie so you don't need to also chime in on that

obviously things are different for single elimination vs two leg, i'm aware of that, you keep on starting out from a basis of assuming i'm an idiot and that's your problem

i simply said the odds for them to proceed beyond psg was -180, i apologize for not explicitly stating it's a two leg event, i would have assumed that were obvious just like if i said the red sox will win the world series and you chime in that it's a best of 7

but bottom line, the odds of mci winning the champions will be far worse than -180 if they beat psg as evidenced by the line's move from +130 to -150 based on the 2-1 result in game 1

that's my point, that's all my point was, that to bet them to advance past psg was -180 and their odds for the following round would certainly be worse, thus why if you like them betting +130 now was good

furthermore, despite offering you free money from someone you insist is an idiot, you oddly don't accept

if you want to keep treating me like i'm a mental midget that's fine, but if you're not willing to take action from the person you think understands this so little he didn't know the ucl format then certaintly you stop insulting his intelligence or pony up and accept the challenge
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Old 04-29-2021, 01:41 PM   #6864
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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i wasn't talking single elimination

but even with home advantage psg were closing line +372 for that single game, obviously that's not a clear equivalent cause that's also accounting for a tie so you don't need to also chime in on that

obviously things are different for single elimination vs two leg, i'm aware of that, you keep on starting out from a basis of assuming i'm an idiot and that's your problem

i simply said the odds for them to proceed beyond psg was -180,
Yes, this was roughly the mid-market valuation on Bookmaker for MCI to advance before yesterday. I understood where that number came from. It's how you abused it that I disagree(d) with.

Quote:
i apologize for not explicitly stating it's a two leg event, i would have assumed that were obvious just like if i said the red sox will win the world series and you chime in that it's a best of 7
No, it's like if you implied that a best of 7 and best of 3 were the same in terms of a team's fair value to advance. This is an odd straw man.


Quote:
furthermore, despite offering you free money from someone you insist is an idiot, you oddly don't accept

if you want to keep treating me like i'm a mental midget that's fine, but if you're not willing to take action from the person you think understands this so little he didn't know the ucl format then certaintly you stop insulting his intelligence or pony up and accept the challenge
I don't do DFS, don't have the time or any real desire to dive deep into it and it's not relevant to this discussion. Weird angle from a very weird and emotional dude. I think you're also confused about me repeatedly calling you an idiot because other than a post in the baseball thread the other day disagreeing with you about your criticism of somigosaden, I don't think I've ever had any interaction with you, much less repeatedly called you an idiot.
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Old 04-29-2021, 01:52 PM   #6865
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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No, it's like if you implied that a best of 7 and best of 3 were the same in terms of a team's fair value to advance. This is an odd straw man.
you're going on about strawmen not me

i said there are two events, one has a line of -180, the other will most likely be worse, so if like MCI +130 is good value

that's it, that's all there was, given that MCI's line is already -150, my prediction was indeed correct

like i said, i think you're way too caught up in semantics here, my entire things was better to bet +130 now than -180 now and likely -200+ later

i think you'd agree that if MCI finishes off PSG the line for MCI to ship it does indeed move from -150 to beyond -180 - hence why i think you're getting caught up in semantics stemming from misinterpreting my initial statement

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Originally Posted by hedgie43 View Post
I think you're also confused about me repeatedly calling you an idiot because other than a post in the baseball thread the other day disagreeing with you about your criticism of somigosaden, I don't think I've ever had any interaction with you, much less repeatedly called you an idiot.
ok, now i do feel stupid, perhaps i mistook you for someone else based off the recent discussion in the baseball thread, i have a lot of trouble remembering specific accounts if they don't have avatars

for this i sincerely apologize, there's a number of people in the sb forums who are generally dicks to people and dismissive of fresh blood, it's not the most welcoming of forums here

i'm genuinely sorry for that
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:42 AM   #6866
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

finally peps filosophy look like gonna win the ch l after so many years, think he deserves it
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Old 05-25-2021, 04:04 AM   #6867
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Hi all! Can u tell me on what platforms r u betting? we have a lot in the Russian Federation, I can't choose, I read all sorts of reviews like this (http://pravoteka.ru/news/news025.html) and I can't decide...help plzzzz
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Old 05-26-2021, 04:59 AM   #6868
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

you guys got any picks for Europa league tonight?
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Old 05-29-2021, 12:13 AM   #6869
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

i think today under 2,5 goals in champions league final is a very good bet in 1,70 odd+
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Old 05-29-2021, 12:14 AM   #6870
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

also ruben dias goal scorer as a fun bet
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Old 05-29-2021, 11:09 PM   #6871
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

big and easy win with my bet
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