save your money for education imo

jajaja very funny, I know I'm overlooking something stupidly simple but I just can't make it click

Something very obvious.

The DNB vig free for that would be 6.15 fwiw.

Wat. I don't see what's wrong with his calculation. Staking $2.22 @ 4.5 returns 9.99, i.e. breakeven vs $9.99 total stake. Staking $7.77 @ 7.0 for the win returns $54.39 which is a profit of $44.4 on the stake, i.e. odds of 5.44 effectively.

The DNB price is better than using the 1x2 prices in this instance because the juice is super high on the 1x2 market. The overround is over 110 on the 1x2 market whereas it's more like 105 on the DNB market. I have no idea why this is. In general you shouldn't be betting on games this early when juice is so high.

Very curious to see your work here.

There we go. So if I had had to bet right now, the DNB market would be more profitable to bet than splitting between 1x2. Thanks a lot for the help Chris - it's a lot easier to learn when people actually help you out rather than just trolling

I'll read some articles on overround/vig etc

Are you referring to the bet365 6.00 line?

The lines are Liverpool: 1.12 DNB & Southampton 6.00 DNB

1/1.12 = 89.28%
1/6 = 16.66%

Total = 105.94% so 5.94% overround/vig

So to remove the vig:

89.28/105.94 = 84.27%
16.66/105.94 = 15.72%

And then convert them back into decimal odds:

100/84.27 = 1.18 (Liverpool DNB)
100/15.72 = 6.36 (Southampton DNB)

So those are the vig free lines?

That's the effective odds of backing the 1x2 market as a draw no bet yes but not the vig free.

Thats the vig free line for that market yes. What I gave you was the vig free DNB using the 1x2 prices, which you can work out now to compare to that.

For this market the dnb is indeed better, but as others have said it isnt always as you can split books to back the draw and the win for best prices.

Ah OK I understand. Thanks for the help

On Reading +0.5 @1.95 for 2 units tomorrow night.

Currently sitting PL season to date at +13.377 Units

LIVEBET
Germany Bundesliga 2

VSFC Kaiserslautern
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1 - 1

Home -0.75 @ 1.

7/ 10

Thinking Aston Villa +0.5 at the weekend. I think QPR are way over valued here, they're just not very good Redknapp or not. Any thoughts?

Also thinking Norwich Sunderland draw, neither team can score, and draws are usually good value anyway. Again any thoughts?

QPR will win. Norwich 5/4 is the best price of the weekend IMHO.

(I am a Sunderland fan and we suck donkey balls at the minute. No confidence, no flair or invention in midfield, etc etc)

A League
Brisbane Roar v Newcastle Jets - Jets, 6.00, 1u

Thanks, have hopped on this (with draw cover). Madness imo.

Yep, especially with international duty meaning Roar will lose 2 of their starting defenders.

My book doesn't offer red cards for A League, but I think there is a high possibility of one in this game as well.

Few half and a quarter unit plays.

A League
Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide United - Over 2.5, 2.125, 0.5u
Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide United - Adelaide +0.5, 2.05, 0.5u
Both teams missing their playmakers and starting keepers. Expect to see some high tempo football with plenty of shots on goal. 2-2 or 1-2 at fulltime.

Wellington Phoenix FC v Western Sydney Wanderers - Under 2.5, 1.775, 0.5u
Wellington Phoenix FC v Western Sydney Wanderers - Draw 0-0, 10.00, 0.25u
Two solid defenses, WSW first trip to New Zealand. Either Wellington to run rampant at home or a bore draw.

As a Norwich fan though, we can't score. We've only scored more than once once this season and that's when we lost 5-2. We've been scoring from corners and goal keeper mistakes which isn't sustainable.

Price has shortened alot on Jets, nice pick.

Yep, down to 4.50 now. Might be due to the fact Nichols has been omitted from Brisbane squad.

+ 0.0625 units. Can't complain, profits locked in at half time. Weather didn't help the game, 37 Celsius, ~60% humidity.

Unfortunately didn't come through. Some shocking decisions from the officials.

2 last plays for the weekend.

EPL
Arsenal v Swansea - Both to score, 1.80, 1u
Norwich v Sunderland - Sunderland DNB, 2.62, 1u

Tonight's Serie A derby could also be viable. Torino seem to exceding expectations, drawing against an in form Fiorentina, and drawing with Lazio and Napoli away from home, while Juve have only taken 4 points from their last 4.

Juve to rest Vidal, but will be replaced with a more then capable Pogba, the only significant line up change I see.

0.25u on the draw at 5.00.

Galaxy -105
Houston +330
Draw????? +258

Am I missing something, or is this a great way to make some money?

those lines are for first 90

I see.

Manchester City v Manchester United.

Both teams to score?

Told ya Norwich would win, but it was a miracle they did after that second half