Quote:
Originally Posted by esad
Scenario 1:
With lockdowns and quarantines, the initial impact will not be that devasting. It will help limit the overall spread in the population.
There are some studies now that believe that the virus does best within a specific temperature span. This matches with the observed behaviour of these types of viruses being seasonal in their overall impact.
Because of the natural seasonality of the virus and lockdown efforts, the number of cases will diminish in the northern hemisphere over the next few months.
Governments will declare success and talk about how they have "beaten the virus." People will drop their guard and relax and think the world has gone back to normal.
Starting in October the virus will start to come back and then the real freakout will begin. Many, many more people will die. Winter of 2020 - 2021 will be a disaster, but at least the virus will burn through enough of the population to prevent future serious outbreaks. Life will go on but it will take years to recover globally.
Scenario 2:
The virus mutates to a less virulent strain soon and by summer it won't be a big deal again.
My predictions from March 2020
It looks like both are true:
- Huge spike
- Virus not as viralent (5.8% CFR March-May 2020 vs 1.1% CFR Sept - Dec 2020 (USA numbers))
Who could have predicted that a cold virus would have a resurgence during cold and flu season????? Shocking!!
I'll have to make another prediction later this month.