cb

dont c/r turn as played. makes no sense with flop line

Sigh, was doing very well in a session possibly my best ever, I checked my PT4 and had a look at my rake contributed. To me it indicated I had reached my VPP goal for the day (magic number is $18.50 contributed rake). I closed the tables down and waited for the lobby counter to update. It did and for some reason still showed me a bit short of my daily VPP goal, I thought "Meh, I'm well ahead of my monthly goal but lets keep up a good habit" and jumped back in.

For reasons that I'm still trying to comprehend I then played these hands.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $25.25
SB: $16.38
BB: $50.27
UTG: $18.01
UTG+1: $13.03
UTG+2: $23.05
MP: $25.71
MP+1: $19.69
CO: $11.40

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 7 7

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, fold, BB raises to $2.75, fold, Hero raises to $8.00, BB raises to $50.27 and is all-in, Hero calls $17.25 and is all-in

Flop: ($51.35, 2 players) A 3 2

Turn: ($51.35, 2 players) T

River: ($51.35, 2 players) J



This guy had a really high squeeze from the blinds percentage so I thought I would make more sense to 4bet back than to maybe call. Why I then called the 5bet shove is beyond me.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $19.20
Hero (SB): $25.10
BB: $30.94
UTG: $11.90
UTG+1: $24.30
UTG+2: $67.81
MP: $25.00
MP+1: $59.00
CO: $31.25

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K A

fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.30, fold, UTG+1 calls $1.55

Flop: ($4.85, 2 players) 5 K 2
Hero bets $3.40, UTG+1 calls $3.40

Turn: ($11.65, 2 players) T
Hero bets $8.50, UTG+1 raises to $18.60 and is all-in, Hero calls $10.10

River: ($48.85, 2 players) T



Not sure if I just overplayed it here. I had few stats and no notes on the turn to indicate I was up against anything worse than what I had.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $69.93
SB: $32.14
BB: $15.75
Hero (UTG): $25.00
UTG+1: $33.12
UTG+2: $61.69
MP: $22.43
MP+1: $17.97
CO: $24.50

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 6 5

Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, fold, fold

Flop: ($2.60, 3 players) 9 6 8
Hero bets $1.50, fold, BTN raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.00

Turn: ($9.60, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.25, Hero calls $5.25

River: ($20.10, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BTN bets $9.00, Hero calls $9.00



This was pure spew because I had lost those other two spots effectively halving my profit for the session. This was just tilt and insult to injury.

I really do love and hate zoom sometimes.

h1: If you 4b you should be able to snap call or snap fold with any hand as you should of planned what you was going to do before you 4b. If you do 4b, its a call. Prob better hands to backraise 4b tho if you're not happy getting it in with 77

h2: standard results orientated

h3: bad. Always open pre aswell. even at 6max

I assume you mean always fold pre?

ye ^ sry.

it's called winners tilt
you are feeling invincible because you just had an awesome session therefore you feel like you are playing good and can out play everyone

you open a bit wider because you can "afford" it now

you are happy
positive emotions = fail to rationalise well

Just checking, 56s UTG isn't how we crush this games then?

150k hands no where near comes close to your true win rate, you need about 1.5 MILLION+ hands if you want to get a true WR within 1bb/100.

I think most players aren't able to get this kind of volume in so they ignore the true facts.

Also, 10bb/100 is 100% unachiveable at zoom, I would really like to see if anyone has a 1m+ sample winning at anything more than 6bb/100 which I believe is the upper echelon of what is achiveable at zoom.

If anyone doubts what I'm saying, have a look at some variance simulators.

This is a simulaton of a player with 4bb/100 WR over 150k hands with an 80bb/100 sd, you can check your standard divation in HM reports tab. 75-85bb/100 is average for 6max and 60-70bb/100 is average for FR.



As you can see from this graph, even if you are winning at 4bb/100 over 150k hands there is still a good chance you are a loosing player.

Even if we increase this sample to 500k hands you can still see that the distribution of possible WRs is huge



You're true WR could be anything between 2bb/100 and 7bb/100

It is only until we get into 1.5m+ samples that a clearer indication of true WR can be assessed.



Even then you could be off by up to 1.5bb/100.

Good luck guys, and keep grinding.

^ tru but the chances of being at the outer lines is EXTREMELY small.. tho not impossible ofc

Also, if anyone hasnt, they should watch the DC vid, Tolerance EP1

Its a eye opener for sure. I have it if anyone is interested, PM me.

i bet i could have a 10bb/100 winrate at 2nl zoom so im going to class everything else in that post as lies.

Maybe at 2nl zoom, but 10bb/100 4tabling 2nl zoom is $2/hour which isn't exactly worth anyones time.

at 25nl+ I would guess anything above 6bb/100 is near on impossible.

The graphs don't lie bro.

Mhmm I forgot most about what I learned in statistics but I'm pretty sure we can pick a smaller sample #hands if we take a smaller confidence intervall?

*whats the confidence interval on your 1.5M assumption?

that is true, it all depends on how sure you would like to be of your true WR, if you want to be 99%+ within 1bb/100 the sample is ATLEAST 2m hands.

Here is a distrubution of WRs over a 500k sample



Using this you can determine how confident you can be of your WR over 500k hands winning at 4bb/100, as you can see with a 500k hand sample you can be 90% sure that your true WR is between 2bb/100-6bb/100 and about 55% sure it is somewhere between 3bb/100-5bb/100.

It all depends how sure you want to be of your true WR but even to determine with 90% accuracy within 1bb/100 you need 1m+ hands

EDIT: The confidence interval is 99%+ in the examples in my last post.

i've just been doomswitched on FTP maybe the poker gods heard me thinking about posting a brag

That's the thing, sample size is key, I've has 100k hands stretches winning at 10bb/100 and I've also had 100k hand stretches loosing -2bb/100.

100k hands at 6bb/100 means you are 99% to be a winning player, but the chance that you will be able to maintain 6bb/100 over 1m hands of zoom is very unlikely IMO.

100k hands at 6bb/100:

lol 100k hand sample ur wr can vary alot more than u may think..

Take a player winning at 8bb/100, sd 80bb/100
after 1 million hands:
9.6bb - 10.4bb 2 % of the time
5.6bb - 6.4bb 2 % of the time
68% of the time, he runs within 10% of his actual wr

interesting hand, villain put me in a real tough spot

Haha looks like a nice table.

fold pre burnss.
also fckkk girls with bfs, boring.

Drunk much

Anyone know how to change the 'player colour note' on FTP from being a triangle in bottom left, to maybe top left or right or w/e?

Can't find anything about notes and colour options in the lobby.

Also, FTP very laggy for me. In a 30 min session, had two hands where it timed me out depsite having clicked to make a raise

Also, where'd everyone go.........

only way i know this is possible is if you mod your tilt

Ok thx.

Really surprised as don't recall these software issues previously at Tilt, and it's the software quality that makes Stars and Tilt stand out from the rest

Oh yeah the JJ hand - should I 3bet pre? I wasnt sure there. I figured he will raise with better, fold a bunch of bluffs, maybe carry on with some worse, but if I call, Im IP and he will likely make big mistakes post flop.