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garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never

06-01-2016 , 11:51 AM
Everyone loses from the BB.

What are your stats from the BB?
garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never Quote
06-01-2016 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dwimmerlaike
Everyone loses from the BB.

What are your stats from the BB?
plus 5 bb/100 OVERALL

plus like 11 from the cut off and button minus 1 from the sb
and minus 9 from the BB
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06-01-2016 , 12:45 PM
I thought OP was contained.
garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never Quote
06-01-2016 , 01:20 PM
you're doing substantially better than average in the blinds and substantially worse than average in CO and BTN

What's your sample size?
garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never Quote
06-01-2016 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dwimmerlaike
Everyone loses from the BB.

What are your stats from the BB?
Quote:
Originally Posted by garyfelice55
plus 5 bb/100 OVERALL
From the big blind, gary. What is your stats from the big blind? (not bb/100 overall)
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06-01-2016 , 01:56 PM
15k
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06-01-2016 , 01:57 PM
king spew i listed it at minus 9 from bb
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06-01-2016 , 02:14 PM
OH Jeezzz major typo sorry guys I was looking at the stats from after only 5k
here are
THE CORRECT stats after 15k
minus 11 from BB
PLUS 20 FROM CUT Off
Plus 41 from button.

Does this mean I am NOT being aggressive enough from the BB or does it look normal ?
garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never Quote
06-01-2016 , 04:03 PM
Minus 11bb/100 in the BB would be pretty good.
I happened to look at a database of 250,000 hands today, where the overall winrate was about 8bb/100. In the BB, the figure was -23bb/100.
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06-01-2016 , 04:50 PM
Probability of loss after 10000 hands (»?«) 6.2597%

Probability of running at or above observed win rate (11.50 BB/100) over 10000 hands with a true win rate of 11.50 BB/100 (»?«) 50.0000%

above is a cut and paste from poker dope variance
This is just an example but would it indicate
a 50% or a 94% chance of being plus bb/100 in the future ?

P.s. The BB/100 variance I entered was 75
garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never Quote
06-01-2016 , 05:09 PM
lol, you will never be profitable in the BB.
garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never Quote
06-01-2016 , 07:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by garyfelice55
Probability of loss after 10000 hands (»?«) 6.2597%

Probability of running at or above observed win rate (11.50 BB/100) over 10000 hands with a true win rate of 11.50 BB/100 (»?«) 50.0000%

above is a cut and paste from poker dope variance
This is just an example but would it indicate
a 50% or a 94% chance of being plus bb/100 in the future ?

P.s. The BB/100 variance I entered was 75
If it turns out that your long-term EV is 11.5bb/100, then obviously you have a 50% chance of doing better than than in the next 10k hands, and a 50% chance of doing worse than that. There's only a 6% chance of you losing money in the next 10k (and a corresponding 94% chance of being profitable), but there is a still a wide range of likely results. The 95% confidence interval (shown by the green lines on the graph) goes from -3.5bb/100 to +26.5bb/100, but clearly the entire range of possible results is wider than that. In layman's terms, that means you have a 95% chance of having a long term winrate (based on the tiny sample size so far) of between -3.5bb/100 and + 26.5bb/100.*
Once you've done another 10k hands, you'll have a better idea of your winrate. Maybe you'll keep winning at 11bb/100+, or maybe your winrate will regress to a lower mean. Good luck!

* This is why 10,000 hands is a fairly useless sample size. Even if you're currently crushing with a double-digit winrate, you could turn out to be a -3.5bb/100 loser in the long run.
garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never Quote
06-01-2016 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
If it turns out that your long-term EV is 11.5bb/100, then obviously you have a 50% chance of doing better than than in the next 10k hands, and a 50% chance of doing worse than that. There's only a 6% chance of you losing money in the next 10k (and a corresponding 94% chance of being profitable), but there is a still a wide range of likely results. The 95% confidence interval (shown by the green lines on the graph) goes from -3.5bb/100 to +26.5bb/100, but clearly the entire range of possible results is wider than that. In layman's terms, that means you have a 95% chance of having a long term winrate (based on the tiny sample size so far) of between -3.5bb/100 and + 26.5bb/100.*
Once you've done another 10k hands, you'll have a better idea of your winrate. Maybe you'll keep winning at 11bb/100+, or maybe your winrate will regress to a lower mean. Good luck!

* This is why 10,000 hands is a fairly useless sample size. Even if you're currently crushing with a double-digit winrate, you could turn out to be a -3.5bb/100 loser in the long run.
Ok Thanks
Yea I might regress but I would love to stay double digits.
In the long run I would Think anything over plus 4 or 5 would be acceptable.
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06-01-2016 , 11:54 PM
Is that wr in big blinds or big bets?
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06-01-2016 , 11:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiltninja
Is that wr in big blinds or big bets?
Hopefully big bets. Only newbs are happy making a mere 5bb/100 from BB.
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06-02-2016 , 08:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
Hopefully big bets. Only newbs are happy making a mere 5bb/100 from BB.
Huh WHAT was the question ? what is wr ?
A few guys here mentioned NO ONE is plus anything from the Big Blind position NO ONE.
I have also heard people (many people say) that only about 7 to 10% of poker players are Plus Any Big Blinds/100 given a large enough sample. The 7 TO 10% would seem about right.
garyfelice55/jumpalot containment thread - better late than never Quote
06-02-2016 , 09:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by garyfelice55
A few guys here mentioned NO ONE is plus anything from the Big Blind position NO ONE.
And they're right, because you're expected to lose 100 bb/100 in the BB, and that's an enormous obstacle to overcome.
Quote:
I have also heard people (many people say) that only about 7 to 10% of poker players are Plus Any Big Blinds/100 given a large enough sample. The 7 TO 10% would seem about right.
It's closer to 20%, probably even higher than that if you excluded rake.
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06-02-2016 , 09:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by garyfelice55
A few guys here mentioned NO ONE is plus anything from the Big Blind position NO ONE.
the idea is that the blinds involuntarily put money in the pot so there's something to play for - otherwise nobody has any incentive to put any money into the pot voluntarily. whenever people put money into the pot voluntarily against people put in money involuntarily, it's pretty hard to not get it in better more often than not.

but u know...that's just like my opinion man. don't heed naysayers...there's always the first
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06-02-2016 , 10:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiltninja
the idea is that the blinds involuntarily put money in the pot so there's something to play for - otherwise nobody has any incentive to put any money into the pot voluntarily. whenever people put money into the pot voluntarily against people put in money involuntarily, it's pretty hard to not get it in better more often than not.

but u know...that's just like my opinion man. don't heed naysayers...there's always the first
And that is Why a straddle is basically a suckers bet.
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06-02-2016 , 10:23 AM
@otatop I seriously doubt as many as 20% of all poker players are turning a profit.
If I had to bet money on that I would bet the number would be a lot closer to 10% then it would be to 20%
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06-02-2016 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by garyfelice55
@otatop I seriously doubt as many as 20% of all poker players are turning a profit.
If I had to bet money on that I would bet the number would be a lot closer to 10% then it would be to 20%
Well the cool thing is we don't have to rely on just speculation. SharkScope has a whole table showing how many winners it tracked (22% 2 years ago) along with some older threads like this one with a nice chart showing around 18% of players were winners.
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06-02-2016 , 08:36 PM
Do you guys measure in $ and hour or BB/100 ?
Say at the 1/2 NL level what is considered OK Solid And Crushing Respectively ?
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06-02-2016 , 09:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
If it turns out that your long-term EV is 11.5bb/100, then obviously you have a 50% chance of doing better than than in the next 10k hands, and a 50% chance of doing worse than that. There's only a 6% chance of you losing money in the next 10k (and a corresponding 94% chance of being profitable), but there is a still a wide range of likely results. The 95% confidence interval (shown by the green lines on the graph) goes from -3.5bb/100 to +26.5bb/100, but clearly the entire range of possible results is wider than that. In layman's terms, that means you have a 95% chance of having a long term winrate (based on the tiny sample size so far) of between -3.5bb/100 and + 26.5bb/100.*
Once you've done another 10k hands, you'll have a better idea of your winrate. Maybe you'll keep winning at 11bb/100+, or maybe your winrate will regress to a lower mean. Good luck!

* This is why 10,000 hands is a fairly useless sample size. Even if you're currently crushing with a double-digit winrate, you could turn out to be a -3.5bb/100 loser in the long run.
I'm really sorry man but this guy isn't for real.

We all just need to contain him in this thread and be done with it.
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06-02-2016 , 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
I'm really sorry man but this guy isn't for real.

We all just need to contain him in this thread and be done with it.
was that directed at me ?
The question I asked was more then fair I have no idea what your problem is.
I mean whats Solid ?
6 ? 7 ? 9 ? bb/100
whats Crushing 10 maybe 12 or more ?
Thats not a fair question ?
Really ? Really ?
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06-02-2016 , 11:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
I'm really sorry man but this guy isn't for real.

We all just need to contain him in this thread and be done with it.
I mean I thought it was implied that my question was asked for say a 50k or 100k sample size.
Who knows maybe BB/100 isn't all that I have heard a few guys tell me they look at in in $/hour.
jUST ASKING A BASIC question an you got on your High Horse.
Here's another clue for you a guy posting as much AS I have probably indicates a newer players encourage by beating up on guys AT Real Casinos who have been playing 10 and more years then him. Did That ever occur to your pompus ass.
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