duh

Some do. there are many replacements too.

point 4 is same thing i keep wondering about

yeah, but the dividend payout ratio on earnings has fallen from 80% to less than 30 from the 40s and 50s and falling as corporate executives destroy shareholder value with dilutive options. that's why buybacks keep getting more popular.




I could be wrong on the survivorship bias on the indices but for the economy to repeat this exact return in this century the Dow Jones would have to hit a high of 2,000,000 by 2099. I don't see this happening and it might be possible that the increase in the money supply to try and repeat it will push gold and hard assets to ridiculous returns. The price of commodities is intrinsically raised from monetary inflation it doesn't matter if it sits in a warehouse or whatever.

nope

that doesn't even make any sense.

And figuring out how indices work would go a long way toward you getting your mind around why the survivorship thing you're proposing is goofy

I'm done with this thread for awhile tho

Thank God for that.

+1

I will admit I seriously considered whether it would be worth it to escrow an ounce of gold. But if I don't trust the counter-party why would I suddenly trust some other random person to escrow it?

oil recently has been trading in these bullish(going up) flag channels. Then it breaks out upward.

http://i49.tinypic.com/2ekrvx1.jpg

gold formed a perfect triangle consolidation pattern which was bullish back in Sept. once i broke out of it on China buying etc it was good tech signal to buy. However imo it is technically bearish with its spike high and this gap down below trend line. thing is though gold just trades opposite of US dollar right now basically so its tricky.

triangle
http://i36.tinypic.com/20atq28.jpg

gold recent
http://i46.tinypic.com/3169ah4.jpg

Oil
over the long run oil went from $13 per barrel to $140 and where it is now because of monetary inflation. $3 a barrel to 13 was market forces and demand and supply. Van Eeden explains this well here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwAHnpIR8is but yeah in short term it trades technically. there was a sloppier triange on oil that broke upward and it is sort of hard to read imo. but prob bullish bias is best on oil now imo. the failed breakdown from the last channel seems kinda bullish. this stuff is just my opinion and another technician might see exact opposite. Also USL should track oil better over long-term because of the short term contracts of USO

http://i47.tinypic.com/123shup.jpg

Isn't survivorship bias a problem when comparing different mutual funds or industries? How does it affect the S&P 500? If the S&P 500 removes a company from the index because it's bankrupt or doesn't qualify for the index anymore you will sell the company too, if you're tracking the index. So you don't need to compare it with the rest of the companies anymore from the point it's excluded.

Tell me I'm wrong because I'm not an expert on survivorship bias with the S&P 500.

I found this on Google, and it's exactly what I thought:

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...ship-bias.aspx

So survivorship bias would only apply if you would still hold the companies AFTER they're dropped from the index and then compare your returns to the S&P 500. If you would do exactly what the S&P 500 does you shouldn't be affected by survivorship bias.

notice the word often?

Yeah, sometimes they're removed before they plunge. Even better.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...31-705464.html
Not too much news here, but does suggest at the end, Palladium may not stream roll ahead based on some presumed profit taking in the near future.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuild...ker1=GOLD%3AUS
Rand is only up 80% this year, if gold is in a bubble... short it.

http://www.kitco.com/market/
Gold def. has support at $1100, now let's ease up to new resistance.
Silver and Platinum up over 3% for now.
Rhodium almost 3%.

Here's a good article in the Washington Post today by Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue about inflation and commodities. I agree with pretty much all of it, and oddly enough I own Contango (a natural gas company mentioned here) and I did own MSFT (also mentioned here) earlier this year (sold at $26.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...103282_pf.html

Good article indeed. I hope MSFT gets overbought enough to short, ($35) and MCF looks good for this year.

I like that Bill Ackman said he would leave gold investing to a psychiatrist.

shorting msft at 35 would be silly

i wouldnt buy it but i wouldnt short it

Based on earnings, cash...or other?

Anybody still like gold/platinum spread trade going forward?

why would you want to short a great company that's dominant and has a monopoly and is just mildly overvalued?

35 is a highish price but it's not some huge stretch and its one of the greatest businesses of all time

no thanks, there are much fatter pitches out there, shorting at 35 is imo idiotic

Q1: Because I expect a double top at that level, and a corresponding correction, among other reasons. (it has been trending up for 6 months, while revenue and earnings have fallen sharply)

Point 1: def. not a huge stretch, and yes one of the greatest bus. of AT

Point 2: There are fatter pitches out there, but this one is on the radar, like I was saying I hope it gets pushed upward to 35, then I would consider that play, but healthy criticism non the less, point taken.

cool so you're pretty much totally making stuff up. hope that works out well for you.

earnings should go up with the release of windows 7

To be honest I wouldn't short MSFT at $35. Yes, it's a too high price but these companies can stay at those prices long enough for their earnings to catch up (and that could take years).

I agree that $35 is overvalued.

http://www.microsoft.com/msft/earnin...rel_q1_10.mspx
http://www.microsoft.com/msft/earnin...rel_q4_09.mspx
http://www.microsoft.com/msft/earnin...rel_q3_09.mspx

"Earnings should go up"... you are making stuff up sir. Maybe I should have not said sharply, but mind you they are not baseless and are indeed fact. I understand that Windows 7 "should" bring earnings back towards growth, and maybe head to 35+ a share before falling back to whatever support it has at the time.

i'm talking about your goofball technical analysis. it sounds cute, really.

i know all about their earnings/cash flow. held up pretty damn good with what has transpired imo. they have other divisions that have been stepping up big tho. like i said i sold at 26, i had better spots.

That's because I am cute as a button.

25/50 NL game, I have $1500, I have a JJ in FP and raise three times the BB, fold around to, all in SB, call all in BB, I fold, sorry to make things so simple Otis...

In what environment do you expect Microsoft to steamroll past 35-40/share and keep it that way... in the near future (oh yeah W7, but I have that factored in). Nevermind. We know there are better stocks to short. EOC.