Oh yes my bad, no May.

I agree it seems wrong based on everyone's perception (including mine).

Options prices are dictated by maths not directional market sentiment. At the money options have close to a 50% delta, that is to say approximately the odds of going up and or down is 50% each. If the odds were higher to go up the underlying price would be higher.
The curves have slightly different 50% points due to the upward slope of the futures curve - funding rates are high.

Do you mean something like this?

NOV 11, 2020: Ethereum Heavyweights Launch LiquidStake Loans to Ease Eth 2.0 ‘Lockup’

NOV 11, 2020: The $50M Question: How to Stake Ethereum 2.0 and Stay Liquid

later dated options should have a lot of theta value though

I’m sure an options trader (which I’m not) will explain it all with more accuracy and clarity than me but I think you’re misunderstanding that graph. The graph doesn’t show anything interesting just the usual structure of options. And it shows nothing in a bad way easy to be confused by

JAN 4, 2021:
I'm confused why this is up so much since I posted the "fantastic buying opportunity" at the absolute bottom for ETHE on Jan 4? Surely if you were mocking me this should be down at least -50% no?

Keep on being the doormat for BFI! We <3 your terrible takes. Never change.

You just can't get it at this point, all you can see is your 'correct' call of the price pumping up, yet you were unable to see it crashing down. This whole thread has the same issue

Kazyeb23gayebuxzz all 'know'

> the price was going to pump to this level

yet at the same time, were unable to know

> that it would crash 95+% from the prior high

Predicting the crash is far easier, it was a certainty based on the price going up 1000+x in a vertical line, that cannot happen without a severe correction. You cannot understand and model the market while missing one and getting the other 'right'. All you have had is faith, fair enough.

Where were your calls for obvious effect of Corona to be:

1) Total destruction of the worlds economies due to harsh lockdowns
2) Easy almost double of the SP one year after, naturally
3) Extreme wave of retail speculative money piling into everything as a result

No one had any idea this was going to happen, no one called for anything close to it. You come in here with a quotes from the past thinking you are dunking on someone/something when you can't grasp what is actually going on. Why don't I go back for 2 years and quote everyone in this thread who, if they had a legitimate model of how this pump would arise, could have easily had 2-20x their ETH for the ride back up?

How much did you make shorting it? It’s so easy, you must be a real chad.

You have been dunked on. Repeatedly.

The specific call was for getting ETHE exposure in a tax advantaged account and lo and behold, January 4 has been the absolute bottom for ETHE.

What I also get is my number go up quite a bit.

very interesting stuff, that looks unreasonably bullish imo but i think most crypto is

This isn't how options pricing works. Options are priced relative to the underlying price, effectively under the assumption that the underlying price is correct.

In an efficient market, if you take the entire probability distribution you posted and figure out the weight sum of "expected" stock price, it should add up to the current price plus the "risk free" interest rate. But we know from crypto futures pricing the relevant interest rate is actually quite high. And that makes sense since borrowing money for crypto trading is fairly expensive.

If options markets were priced to imply a high probability of a 50-100% or bigger gain in ETH a year out, we could just buy ETH (or the futures), sell the calls, and print money. So these implied probabilites don't necessarily have much predictive value and if the general consensus is that crypto is going to moon, they won't reflect that.

Pete, what do you make of bitcoin Implied Volatilities growing much higher as it gets further out of the money for later dated expirations? For Decemebr 2021, the at the money 60k IV is 83.8%, 100k is 97.53%, 200k is 112.67%. The premiums for further out of the money are much higher because of it. Why is the market pricing it this way?

Not sure what to say about that other than that it's super standard. Implied volatilities are calculated based on a (log)normal distribution and actual crypto returns are substantially not normal.

i don't know who needs to hear this *cough cough case3 cough* but:



A good lesson about markets.

Mmmm contango

Short people are like Don't Pass people

3k

It's pretty much impossible ETH won't hit $10k in the next 2 years. Crypto is on another paradigm.

Then why would you sell your BTC? There's no world where ETH goes to $10k and BTC is worth less than what you sold it for.

I'm worried BTC is going to suffer hard from accusations it's contributing to climate change + I am having difficulty believing BTC is actually a better Store of Value than ETH.

Well I would sell my BTC for ETH so I make more because ETH will outperform. I don't get how you even ask that question.

Because you declared "we are on the moon, no more buyers, watch me short this to 0" about a month ago

I agree that ETH will outperform BTC over the next 4-6 months—i.e., the remainder of this bull cycle. The same is true of many altcoins. Per CMC, BTC dominance stands at 47.7% today. I remember seeing it as low as 33.2% in Jan. 2018 (the bottom was actually 32.81% on Jan. 14, 2018). I expect BTC dominance to return to this level, if not lower, before the end of the year.

But here's another thought: It may be possible to identify BTC's peak in retrospect about a week after it hits. On the price charts we'll see almost a straight line up for a few days or a week, followed by almost a straight line down. That's what the blow-off top will look like. It will be difficult to time BTC's peak in advance, but perhaps easier to time ETH's peak (and the peaks of other altcoins) once BTC's peak is known, assuming that altcoins will again peak 2-4 weeks after BTC does.

This could be another reason to convert BTC to ETH now: to maximize profit taking during this bull cycle.

New Fundstrat report in the news: https://fundstrat.com/wp-content/upl...kly-Crypto.pdf

Headline:
Remaining overweight Ethereum and maintaining a price target of $10.5k as ETH reaches new highs and continues to outperform BTC.