Are you trading back to BTC at .1?
Do you think ETH/BTC can reach a new ATH this summer?

Lol a funny comment for us Canadians

Smart people,

I want some exposure to crypto in my vanguard roth portfolio to take advantage of the tax savings...Thinking 70/30 Eth/BTC. Is the only way to do this is through ETHE and GBTC? If my overall thesis is bullish, is there a reason not to buy if they're my only options? -13.5 and -21.8 discount on the two assets. My initial thought is, wow big discount, how much more negative can it get?

If there's sudden big uptick in prices i may sell right away as I see there's a really high yearly management fee.

Look at 2018 to see how much more negative it can get. Both have been on an insane heater.

Not sure I follow. I understand the very high premiums you once got in the past are gone and now negative.

Is it your contention that the negative premiums can get much lower than the current ones? Theoretically it's supposedly back by the actual crypto but I know that there's no mechanism for the asset holder to actually redeem for the underlying btc/eth.

I understood the reference to 2018 to mean the top crypto tokens (BTC/ETH) have dropped nearly 90% in value before and therefore could easily do so again.

I'm asking more about if the only vehicle to get crypto exposure in a roth ira is GBTC and ETHE and if anyone has concerns about those assets (outside of their opinions on btc/eth price). I'm well aware of the price histories of btc and eth and the fluctuations in price. I've been holding since 2017.

I've just decided that i would like some in my roth ira given the tax saving benefits. I already have a lot of btc and eth in my wallets. I guess, i'm asking, how negative can the premiums really go at this point? In any event, i made a large purchase of ETHE in my roth. holding back on gbtc for now...I really don't want to keep my money in these Target 2045 retirement funds.

This

1. No. I am re-evaluating in real time. For me ETH is a much more useful asset -- it's the base pair across DEXs making it useful for my market making, has a higher CF and more ubiquity on lending platforms than WBTC making it more useful for borrowing needs.

2. Yes I think it can. Not saying it will but it's certainly within the realm of possible. BTC has been fighting the ESG narrative for a decade and unfortunately, you can never underestimate the stupidity of the masses. Ethereum has a good story (moving to PoS) whereas bitcoiners dig in trying to greenwash it and claim it is good for the environment, with all sorts of mental gymnastics and whataboutism. In addition, DeFi and NFTs are continuing to grow, getting people more and more comfortable with storing wealth on ethereum and using it productively. BSC and other EVM-compatible chains are only helping to grow the EVM network effect. At this point I think it would take a real catalyst (say, a 10 figure institutional allocation to BTC or some really bad regulator stuff wrt DeFi) to reverse the trend -- it's obvious to me we will see some announcements in the next few months about institutional allocation to ETH.

Really wish people would stop saying that BTC's PoW incentivizes clean energy innovation. I mean, in a way, it does, but in the same way that cigarette smoking incentivizes lung cancer research or defecating in the street incentivizes street cleaning.

If you did a little research to understand the basics of how power systems work - particularly ones that rely increasingly on solar and wind - you wouldn't be saying this. But I understand it's easier to make bad assumptions than to do a little work.

The benefit of BTC to power systems has next to nothing to do with incentivizing innovation and everything to do with making power systems that rely on a high portion of wind, solar, nuclear more practical while minimizing the need for fossil fuel based power generation.

That's not to say that BTC on the whole is environmentally friendly, but making terrible analogies isn't a good way to discredit it.

anyone have a good answer here? bc I am wondering this myself, specifically the reason behind the big discount to NAV and catalysts on how/when it will converge

Speaking of this interview, what do you make of Su Zhu and Kyle talking, in a completely non-ironic way, about the merits of Dogecoin as a store of value and even the possibility of their fund being long Doge in the future?

That part was really surprising to me, considering that it seems like every other 'smart' person immediately dismisses it as a total joke.

Imagine thinking I don't know this.

The data I've seen says that while 75% of miners use *some* renewables/stranded energy, BTC mining is still 60-65% coal. That is bad, period. I was referring to the people who say, unironically, that BTC's PoW is a net positive for the environment for <reasons that involve mental gymnastics/speculation>.

In an efficient economy it would be. Obviously we're far from that today, but if bitcoin were to become a standard and stabilize it would eventually only be possible to mine at ~zero/negative power prices. Even if that level of efficiency is never reached, it won't always be possible to pump coal into a furnace to mine btc profitably.

I'm sure they are quite long DOGE right now. Remember they are traders not VCs. DOGE has been quite easy to trade.

Every 'smart' person dismissed DOGE when it rallied to $0.05-$0.10. We are now >10x from there. It's very much become the GME of crypto. It has quite a good meme. Competing memecoins (like BTC, LTC) left in disbelief. The "it will eventually fall 70-95%" is irrelevant and has made no money on it. Or repeatedly been blown up trying to short.

Right. As above, claiming BTC can eventually be net positive, or claiming it's net negative now but still worth it (ie, it's better than gold across several important dimensions) are very reasonable opinions. Claiming it's currently good for the environment happens surprisingly often and is ridiculous. At least with Ethereum, there is already a testnet to remove the waste (possibly this year, if not next year). It's not some hypothetical far-out future thing.

There's been a recent proposal for a much more efficient oPoW for BTC, but I think it's far more likely than not to die within the politics of the BTC community, it it is even seriously considered at all.

Is there a single human "thing" that is positive for the envionment? The way I see it, our very existence is net negative.

As someone learning I love reading your input, I actually bought some eth before the recent run up because of you and this thread in general. I'm still way heavier in BTC and am still looking for a price point to convert it all into BTC.. I still have much to learn so maybe it will click for me eventually. My plan at the moment tbh is to trade it all back to BTC over the summer. Here's what I currently think.

With BTC what you see is what you get, it's the final protocol.

With eth the consensus is still changing, it's a start up. Correct me if I'm wrong but I do not understand how DeFi will survive a bear market, seems most of the use case are people leveraging tokens to buy more tokens.. that's not really a use case and is just standard market reaction to fishes who want to speculate (where there is demand, a product will be created to meet it). Crypto only goes up>leverage demand goes up>DeFi goes up, smart money goes where there are fishes just like poker in 2008. Bear market hits>apocalypse>fish leaves>smart money leaves and finds an edge somewhere else until the cycle repeats itself.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the proof of stake stuff tho, took me 10 years to wake to BTC imagine how long it will take to understand Eth lol

I'm doing the exact opposite haha. I just moved the rest of my BTC to exchange to convert all of it to ETH. I'm doing it slowly. Try as I might, I cannot come up with a good argument to continue even holding a small amount of BTC at this point.

I'm essentially gambling that the ETH devs are going to pull off the transition swimmingly. I have a lot of faith in them. Once they do that, I cannot see how Ethereum won't be superior to BTC in every way. It should be a perfectly reasonable Store of Value in the same way as BTC. But SoV was never even what drew me to crypto in the first place, it was all about how productive is the asset. How useful is the network?

ETH does everything Bitcoin does. Bitcoin can hardly do anything Ethereum can do.

More and more it seems like a no brainer. I was going to keep 20% allocation into BTC but at this point, I just cannot come up with a good reason to do that. Especially with all the environmental FUD going in, I think it's really bad, at least, for the short term price of BTC.

Two SHAE,

I've noticed most of the decentralized perp platforms block IPs from certain areas (like good ole USA). Do you think this is temporary until the protocols are fully turned over and fully decentralized, at which point there's nothing (?) that can be done to stop trading on them?

There's already nothing that can be done. Using the protocol does not require using the frontend. Even see protocols like Liquity not running *any* frontend, and incentivizing third parties to run them instead!

Think it's quite possible the DeFi landscape bifurcates somewhat between KYC'd and non KYC'd protocols at some point in the future.

Been saying this for years. By far the best thing you can do for the environment is not have kids. Everything else is negligible in comparison. No one wants to hear that though.

That may be so, but birth rates have been plummeting as it is. We still need some amount of babies or what’s this all for? Also need them for economic reasons as a society.

I too have just exchanged some BTC for ETH for the first time, but I do think you give a good reason in your own message.

To oversimplify: BTC hasn't changed and probably won't. That has worked so far very well. Eth has changed and will continue to, it has worked so far but is a higher risk(+ likely higher reward) proposition. A balanced approach is probably better than BTC or ETH maxi.

zhu su changed his twitter avatar, perhaps he reads the thread

https://twitter.com/mikemcdonald89/s...064562688?s=21

Can someone elaborate/clarify on what MM is saying here? Is he saying due to IL, chasing yields leads to a lot of people ending up losing exposure to the assets they’re generally most bullish on (BTC/ETH) and gaining less desirable alts?

https://twitter.com/evan_ss6/status/...866134529?s=21

And can you elaborate on this twoSHAE? What is uninformed flow?