Worth pointing out that deaths are currently 4.2 times higher PM in USA than Israel.

Because it does not account for absolute amount in hospital.

Ok but 10 instead of 5 is already far more. (edited as that was confusing)

Then we have also have to consider the expectation of an old/frail person being in hospital anyway. If there's lots of infections then you expect a fair number of frail people with covid in hospital even if the vaccine worked 100%. Especially if, as it is in the uk afaik, the defintion is 'tested positive within the last 4? weeks'. We need the data of how many similar people are in hospital without covid and the infection rate among these people.

Yes to more data. Never to the rest, I will continue to listen very seriosuly to those who have real expertise. I accept I'm assuming those analysing the data include similar people to in the uk. That seems a reasonable asumption to me but in any case my response above applies even if no-one has analysed the raw data.

Just to add the experts I take heed of are very cautious and emphasise the uncertainty. Although the data doesn't speak against high efficacy, it's still too small a data set to prove the high efficacy.

I mean I literally did the math on Delta from UK's raw numbers from their gov website on post 16480. And it showed both protection against getting Covid and severity.


[Comparing 2 dose vacc vs No dose]
<50
Cases:
5600 2 dose, expected if vaccine is worthless: 14800
2.64x

Overnight emergency care:
48 2 dose, expected if vaccine is worthless: 78
1.6x

Death:
2 (2 dose), expected if vaccine is worthless: 1.6
.8x



<50
Cases:
5234 2 dose, expected if vaccine is worthless: 10251
1.9x

Overnight emergency care:
265 2 dose, expected if vaccine is worthless: 805
3x

Death:
116 (2 dose), expected if vaccine is worthless: 293
2.5x

Refer back to post 16480 if you want links to exactly where the numbers come from if you feel like disputing it.

I mean I obviously appreciate the significance of the Prime Minister of Israel saying “We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less.” So I'm anticipating that to be true, just don't know how much or in what way.

I will point out that the data from UK ended up looking a lot more positive for protection than the last time it was looked at (Steve Kirsch was sharing it). (Think it was w25 last time)

UK has 4.17 times more people in hospital than Israel.

Though still a tiny proportion compared to the last wave.

1 in 6 Councils in the UK are reporting highest levels of infection since the pandemic began.

Posts like this have zero efficacy on the intended target, which of course is part of the charm of threads like this! Remember, he thinks many levels ahead of you and everybody else so pay closer attention to the cherry picked out of context data he provides from Israel, Cyprus, and Liechtenstein (that place will have its day in this thread eventually).

The main derp of this thread is kind of side stepping the 6D Shuffle medical journal, so it is up to people like you to engage him more in the future, otherwise the thread becomes a dull blog of a dude talking to clouds that has nearly everyone else on ignore.

All the best.

Great. You are looking out for you and basically giving the middle finger to everyone else and i am actually ok with that.

Let it Rip and lets get you to natural immunity or culled and let society move on.

But also if the 50% of people like you end up spurring hospitalizations and other issues and the decision is to start selectively shutting down the economy I hope you have the awareness to just STFU about it and not complain.

If your view is to not gaf about doing anything to protect society than understand why society rightly does not gaf when they take steps to protect society against you. One is the natural flip side of the other.

Fantastic post.

I mean you could have just said, 'See QP's prior posts on this', but i am ok with you pretending these are your own words. Better late than never.

We have the clock started, as Data continues to come in for ToothSayer starts pivoting to start incorporating some of this message into his posts. I am bookmarking all these and will highlight when he does. And we KNOW he will. We also KNOW he will pretend he understand the early data and was saying it all along. He will pretend it was obvious vaccinations were having an impact despite him ridiculing that position just upthread and saying it was all just moderate temperatures (which are part ...but d'uh) driving it.

If you believe that the efficacy of the vaccine against hospitalizations from delta is being oversold at 93-96% what best explains the gap?

Is efficacy waning, behavior changes, studies didnt control for confounders at all or well,etc

Do you think that time gap is a big factor?

I just did the Delta according to the UK's data on it.

I know you're referring to the Israeli chart that shows basically 0 reinfections. How reliable is that? Is there data other than that you're looking at regarding reinfection/protection? I tried to download the Israeli data but everything is in Hebrew and I cant copy to paste it into translate.
I don't think it's a stretch, could very well be the case. Which would end up being pretty Lol if true with how upset certain people get at the idea of people skipping getting the vax due to natty inf.

I don't think your age range vacc recommendation is far off tbh.

Good grief, just skimmed this thread for the first time in weeks.

Anyone listening to Shuffle in this thread is making a monstrous mistake, his posts are horrific on every level. It's one thing to debate vaccination, be concerned about safety, etc. It's another to flat out post false information, like "the vaccines don't work". Shuffle, you are intentionally taking things out of context and turning them into falsehoods and you should be ashamed of yourself.

The vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing severe illness, which is the actual goal. The end.


PS: I live in one of the current hottest spots in the US. We are at all time highs for hospitalization for the entire pandemic and have relatively low vaccination rates in the population (~40%). Of those hospitalized, something like 97% of them are unvaccinated. Effectively all of the positive cases here now are Delta.

Nobody listens to him, and he does not really talk to anyone. Insignificant noise.

One concept I am surprised has not been tossed about here among the let it rip crowd that believe prior infection is the best form of protection is allowing younger people to be intentionally exposed to the original form of the virus akin to old style Chicken Pox parties before vaccines for that were developed. Guess out of context graphs from Cyprus are more important though for their agenda for now.

Shuffle has been anti-Covid vaccines from the beginning, read his posts after the Moderna and Pfizer trial data came out. Basically said the data was fraudulent and that it was a big pump and dump scam. He even tried to say that Moderna executives executing a prearranged stock sale, was proof of the pump and dump. Hope no one shorted Moderna based on that hot take. Listening to him is likely bad for both your health and your bank account.

No one is denying that. The question now is how long do they prevent severe illness for? The data is starting to suggest a decent chance the answer is not for long and continuous booster shots will be needed. That will be very very bad.

That's fine and dandy for those of us that know his posting history as a constant chicken little / prophet of doom, but for any newbies, good grief.

If he posts again that the vaccinations don't work, I'll probably give him a timeout. Maybe he can complain to the new ownership about me.

According to a lot of people ITT every new piece of data supports their preconceived agenda.

Well, all the actual 'real' science shows that the vaccinations generate a robust immune response and trigger the additional layers of our immune system to create a long lasting protection, at least for the timeframe we have which is approaching a year of history with the vaccines. Time will ultimately tell, but there is zero 'real' evidence so far that they don't provoke a lasting immune response.

The challenge we face if we have mutations that this lasting protection no longer is as effective against (e.g. Delta). This is why there is discussion of a booster by Pfizer, which can be different and targeted at Delta (or whatever else).

That is why they are conducting booster trials. We are still learning how long the vaccines last and whether they will need to be updated to address specific variants, etc.

However I don't think the need for annual boosters would be as bad as you say. Could be an annual combined flu/Covid shot. Only real down side is that side effects from Covid shots are usually worse than the flu shot. But getting a jab per year is not that big a deal.

You might as well lock this thread if you want to turn it into echo chamber about how amazing vaccines are working when data is starting to suggest there's at least a chance that's not the case.

What if they needed every 3-5 months?

Not in favor of an echo chamber at all. Nothing in science/medicine is perfect and that's all fair game to discuss.

However, to state that the "vaccinations don't work" is at best idiotic, at worse intentionally malicious. That's microchip / 5G levels of nonsense.

What are you even talking about? If someone is worried about their own health and well-being they should vaccinate and self isolate. LoL @ the idea of depending on someone else to vaccinate for your own health and well being. You seem to be living in lala land where earlier in the pandemic people could stay safe by others wearing ineffective cloth masks.

Shuffle seems to have lost his head.

HOWEVER, at least he posts an opinion and provides data to back that up. Those sources may or may not be valid. "Newbies" who read this will read what they want to hear somewhere else if you ban Shuffle.

Meanwhile, you have come in here and stated something that you think is a fact, while providing no data. And you are threatening to ban people who oppose your view. I think most people here will agree that this is stupid.

I agree that protecting newbies here is kind of a non sequitur, as the only new accounts on these forums are spambots or people creating new ones after they were banned.

I also agreed with a poster above who said that he knows the odds are that he will not croak regarding Covid, and indeed when he gets it in the near future he probably will not croak. People can make that choice for themselves at this point and let the math do what it will do.