I think you are missing the point that an increase in cases, without a corresponding increase in deaths or hospitalizations, is a sign that the vaccine is working like it is supposed to.

Look at the UK. Daily new cases right now are at 25k, roughly the same level as November 16. But daily deaths are at 18, whereas in November they were 416.

The data is pretty clear. The people who wrote the articles claiming a drop in vaccine efficacy got this terribly wrong, because I suspect they have no idea how to interpret raw data and are just spewing out numbers.

Uk deaths are way down but that doesn't matter the world is ending don't ever forget that

I'm in the 'it's looking very hopeful camp' but as well as the possibility that summer is factor, if we have a constant infection to death time with a higher R then those figures can look better than they are.

I'm a bit suprised you're ignoring the other point.

If delta has a much higher R then there were proportionately far fewer cases x weeks ago when those people got infected compared to when R was lower. Poeple just looking at this weeks numbers may be severly underestimating the ifr.

So this comparison is quite likely flattering as the new cases when it mattered for these deaths may have been much lower compared to back in November. Maybe soemone here will crunch the numbers but it's not a stretch to assume delta has had a higher R

Having said all that while I think a healthy dose of caution is very wise this makes no sense to me which doesn't mean booster jabs aren't both likely and a good idea.

The surge in cases in the UK started in the middle of May when we opened up almost completely - most businesses reopening and people meeting indoors.

However, the data above shows it has barely moved the needle at all for anyone over 65 - in other words the fully vaccinated - in nearly two months since UK opened up and cases began to surge.

To be clear, infections will rise in that age group and so will deaths, but that data shows the efficacy of the vaccine and anything else is speculation at this point.

^^^^please don't piss on his doom parade

Fair enough.

As "This is BFI" put a number on "whacked" and if I think you're wrong we can have a friendly wager.

So at it's peak, post vaccination infections in Seychelles were ~5x higher than they were pre-vaccination in the UK, yet deaths were comparable.

In other words, as a result of vaccination, the comparative death rate in Seychelles was ~20% of that in an unvaccinated UK.

Shuffle, I am curious if the only way you would define 'vaccine success rates' is by 100% stop of spread?

If for instance we see that it 90% effective in stopping hospitalizations and deaths, but people can and still do catch it (especially variants) but as opposed to the unvaccinated population the difference in hospitalizations and deaths is vast, would you call that a success?

This sums of the UK situation pretty well:

Think it's a bit early to claim victory because as chezlaw pointed out the R could be much higher for Delta so that would mean that deaths from the Delta cases will resolve a bit later.

Goverment is basing their actions largely on Niel Ferguson's work and he is talking of up to 200k cases per day.

He also mentions the need to be flexible and the sensitity to ifr. The huge flaw in the governments plan is that it's incomplete in that regard. The plan needs to include turning on a dime if the evidence starts to show a higher ifr than hoped for. If that was the plan then it might be a very good one but I dont think anyone thinks that's the case. The government will wait until they have no choice and then it will be far too late (again)

Unfortunately given that limitation, I dont think there are any good plans. We're mostly just hoping the IFR is at the favourable end of the range plus boosters which should help.

I think for the countries that are well underway with vaccination, what is most likely to happen is that deaths & hospitalizations will rise to uncomfortable levels, but not close to previous waves or overloading healthcare. I would be very surprised if avg daily deaths in UK for example go >200 again.

I do think there is an unlikely possibility it will be worse than that, and our dear leaders are not taking that possibility into account enough.

And the idea that everybody seems to accept that we'll add a few thousands or ten thousands in every country to the COVID death numbers, also leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Finally, our leaders should really be thinking about how we can prevent another even worse variant to pop up, which in my opinion is by far the biggest risk right now. A variant that renders current vaccines useless would set us back to step one. A variant that renders current vaccines useless with increased R like British variant or Indian variant, would set us further back than April 2020.

There's no easy solution, but remaining a bit more conservative until we've been able to vaccinate everyone who will take the vaccine, seems like a good start.

You can't contain delta because the R is so high that you only contain it by hard locking down without cessation until contact-traced eradication (then total border closure forever) and that's not viable in most countries. Let it rip is the only possible strategy.

It's not that black and white but I think that's correct to a large extent. It's why Australia may be facing serious trouble now. Very low vaccination and they may simply not be able to contain delta

Hate to interrupt the doom party, but anyone here care to guess what the biggest common risk factor leading to hospitalization/ severe outcomes from covid (across all population demographics) is?

Hint: It 's not obesity or old age and it's very easily remedied. Take a stab anybody.

Not being vaccinated.

All the best.

where is the outlier in human deaths YoY?

Incorrect.

Vitamin D deficiency

Bingo.

Heh, so that is your new magic cure. Did you do another 30 second google search for it? How about you look into silver next!

Come this winter the vast majority of serious cases and deaths in countries where the vaccine is available will be from unvaccinated people, and the reality is that unvaccinated people will not have as much value in that regard due to their choice, so there will be no effort to shut down to protect them like there was when people who had no choice to be vaccinated were impacted.

At that time, if you are still around on this forum, you will be pitching another inane magical cure, Shuffle will find a pickle missing on a Big Mac and create a theory of why the world will end, and the dude with over 2,000 posts in this thread will have another several hundred that nobody else will care about. In the end the data will be clear that the deaths and serious cases will be directly tied to people who chose to trust their immune system or vitamin D or silver or whatever, and hopefully those donks will not create another variant that actually impacts vaccinated people in the process. Will be fun to see how that is spun in this thread for amusement value at that time.

Good luck with that vitamin D thing! Your last magical cure got mocked by even your fellow anti-vaxxers, which was kind of impressive. Let's see how much they embrace your magical D theory. You should really make sure they understand all the work you put into it, so feel free to elaborate in great detail why vitamin D is the difference. Hit them with your "facts." Thanks!

All the best.

lol

Sure thing bro. I'll still be here. Glad you follow all my posting so closely. You might learn something. Although you seem rather thick so I doubt it.

I already knew that special people like you think they have gifted insight to find magical cures to suit their agendas. You are just a riggie in the end.

Your last magical cure got mocked by literally everyone, even others that refuse to put Soros/Gates juice in their body like you. I see you kind of ignored that point for some reason, so guess let's see how your well researched vitamin D thing goes . Remember, it is up to you to post often with all of your knowledge and data to really get others to give you the credit you deserve for your work, so do not hold back in that regard, and good luck with math this winter!

All the best.

Not claiming any victory, that kind of thinking is for children, just posting information.