To counter the peer review, there is evidence of a possible CV outbreak in CA as early as December 2019. The false positives are certainly an issue. Sewage analysis is well-known, done for decades, fairly random and representative of the region, so I suggest pursuing that to get more confident numbers.

Another issue with the study is only 4.5% of participants were >65, which is about 1/3 of normal age distribution, and who knows how representative of the most at risk population they were. That matters because if the more vulnerable are taking precautions not to become infected in the first place that will heavily skew death rates. Probably doesn't matter much in terms of knowing what percentage of the population has contracted the virus or maybe even determining what an actual IFR would be. But in terms of determining how many people would die if the entire population contracted the virus, extrapolating an IFR of 0.1%-0.2% is woefully misleading based on their study.

People were comparing them when the pandemic first started and there was only a few hundred deaths, like nobody realized it was only the beginning. Death count means everything.

Now they can confidently say the flu is still 20% worse than the corona virus. Saw a rant from doctor phill using the "swimming pool, car accidents, alcohol" comparison that gun enthusiasts will often use.

Honestly, the sane thing to do is ignore all these bullshit tests and focus on much more reliable data, of which we have plenty that puts an IFR at >1% and a hospitalization rate higher than that. There are enough population level samples for that now.
That's hilarious and worth reading. Another data point for my take that "Most science is pure trash/more likely than not to be wrong, most experts are worthless and not very bright, peer review is a joke and you should stick with common sense/raw data until you have 10+ replications".

We still have it good.

Smallpox had an R0 of 7 and a death rate of 30% (with most of the surviving being scared badly), and has been around since at least the time of the Egyptians, so we've lived with a disease that horrible and contagious for >3000 years. Partial mitigation didn't arrive until the 1600s and proper inoculation until much later. It wasn't eradicated until 1977, and 300 million people died of it in the 20th century, which is a lot considering there were only 2 billion people for most of that time. The SJWs condemning how people acted in past as awful really have no clue what a rough world it was.

I'm quite sure one of the reasons humanity didn't prosper far earlier and more vigorously is infectious diseases, which regularly depopulated much of the world, created a young average age of death and severely hampered progress and planning.

A smart person would realize that all those additional deaths make this pandemic worse, not more trivial.

What part of those 200,000 years have humans been as urbanized and globalized as today?

Trump is such a dirty pig

I'm only suspicious of the ones that were the result of virus experiments "escaping" from a lab.

walking around people just kind of act normal, it's been several months, we never had an outbreak (500ish cases but nearly all from people flying in)

streets are fairly empty but nobody actively avoids me, however, i live on the top floor so often when leaving elevator stops for others and they'll start to walk onto the elevator, see me and then decide to wait for the next one

i imagine it'd be quite different in hubei

one thing though is you often see people out and about in pajamas, there's a whole lot of idgaf attitude with a lot of people with very little to do each day

i haven't been rejected or turned down as a foreigner from any restaurants (but it was a nightmare booking a cheap hotel room last week), but at a few have been asked to scan an app that'll declare i'm a-ok - basically a clearing list showing if you've bought plane/train tickets recently but this doesn't work for me since i don't have a national id card - i'm sure there's a workaround but honestly not really interested in eating at a restaurant that is afraid of me and only run into it twice and just decided to eat somewhere else

they aren't so worried that I'm a sick foreigner, they're worried that I may have come from a place that's infected, the whole reason of scanning that thing is to prove i've been in beijing long term - ie the first thing people ask if they ask is "how long have you been here" and if i say "oh i haven't left for months" then they chill

if i were working and going downtown regularly i'd probably have to figure out how to register my phone for that barcode thing but out here in the burbs it's never a thing

also, the doorman at my building didn't take my temperature both times i went out and came back in today - unsure if he was just not feeling it or a new policy - the place i ate lunch and the convenience store i went to both took my temp though

This woman has a paper logbook:
https://www.businessinsider.com/cana...ockdown-2020-2

Had they worn mask and engaged in social distancing during the protest, it would not have been as bad. They had the chance to show that they have what it takes to go back to work and behave intelligently, and they failed. They should've shown that they are responsible enough to take measures such as, mask wearing, social distancing, but they could not even do this.

Some more antibody testing results. A survey of 200 people in Chelsea, Mass. found that roughly 33 percent of those tested were infected, meaning a likely 16x increase in cases.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/...e-coronavirus/

Based on 712 known cases and 39 deaths in that area, that means an IFR of .3 percent right now, a number that will likely go up, but probably not by a huge amount unless the virus rampaged through a nursing home.

I thought there was a good question asked during yesterday's task force briefing at 1:27:20 that pretty obviously wasn't considered in much depth based on the tangential answer (I laughed):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHsOnW7y908


I saw an interview with Ted Cruz today in which he said we need to get young, healthy people back to work as soon as possible. A lot of young people have kids. If schools/youth activities do not open until phase 2 of the plan to reopen the economy, how are a lot of parents supposed to go to work in phase 1?

It's a stupid answer

but it's not that great a question. A large number of young people either don't have kids or one of the parents will be able to go back. If going back was a good idea (sounds suicidal to me but assuming anyway) then the fact they can't all go back is a quibble at this stage.

And what happens to those parents' jobs that have to stay home?

but you can't pack a bunch of kids into a daycare either at the moment, the same reason why they aren't at school.... it's pretty basic really, put the snacks out, tell them to hide if someone knocks on the door. I remember being left at home from 7 with a 9 year old brother(after school) and being terrified of being kidnapped whenever someone would come to the door.

As predicted, thermal imaging going to be new normal https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2200HT
Welcome to a scifi movie. Soon we'll find out the virus is extraterrestrial.

Japan firing up. Reinfection rates skyrocketing. Scary stuff. But I wonder which relaxed US state will be first to reignite. Utah or Florida probably but your guess is as good as mine. With mandatory face masks the new condoms, we are all getting ****ed.

What's happening to them anyway?

As part of reopening the economy (still sounds suicidal but whatever) it's a quibble.

I assume you don't have children. Who is going to take care of kids that would otherwise be in school is a pretty important question.

Urbanization and globalization just make pandemics easier. Sounds like you are defending my point. Even taking technology and science into account, good chance we have just been running hot for 50 years and the deck is starting to come back around. And not even a particularly cold deck mind you. Most pandemic experts assume there will likely be something much worse coming along, if not in our lifetimes than certainly our children's.

Does he actually believe the stock market correlates with human wellbeing or is he just saying the millionaires are fine so piss off?

Anyone see the beaches in jacksonville have reopened? Looks like a disaster waiting to happen.

I expect some countries will require people to work from home as much as possible and keep their children home too, but do a partial reopening of schools only for children of people who can’t work from home.