Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
It's definitely a gimmick account. His join date is May 2019.
I just assumed he's BrianTheMick's gimmick account. Dad brain, blindly trusts corrupt idiotic expert opinion even when it's 99% to be wrong, discounts any scenario that's not business as normal, bad at math and rational analysis. I like the guy, but he does bad/lazy analysis that gets it right 90% of the time (because status quo) and blown to pieces the others.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brass
So are you saying the total deaths will double every six days? I choose deaths instead of infections because there's less uncertainty in those estimates.
Where do you get that from? Chinese have hugely underreported CV deaths. Tests aren't done on dead bodies when people die at home, they're simply immediately cremated in Wuhan (see: multiple NYT stories)
No, they won't double every six days. Wuhan is contained/declining after 28 days in total lockdown and with the major infection center contained it won't go exponential for a while until global infections ramp up. But even so: in Wuhan there are 8,853 serious, 1,845 critical. 49% who reach critical die (according to Chinese data). That's 1000 (minimum) deaths right there in the next 6 days if the data is honest.
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I dare you to make a concrete prediction about the death totals two months from today, but I know you won't since you know you're actually a coward ignoramus who just wants to post about his prepper fantasy of the world turning into World War Z.
There are so many factors that go into that it's absurd. If the spread is not contained at this early stage globally, one of two things happens:
1. Millions die. The market takes a huge hit from the economic disruption OR
2. They lock everything down including entire cities as Italy/China/Korea is doing, with increasing severity (Wuhan level citywide total shutdown month-longth house detention in the worst cases). Global trade, tourism, economic output and supply chains suffer badly. The market take a medium size hit from corporate profit hits and Asian recession.
We're already seeing the impact of the partial Chinese shutdown already. The selloff Friday in tech, and particularly in computer hardware related companies, was due to this analysis:
Quote:
According to research firm Canalys, the coronavirus outbreak could lead to a drop of at least 3.3%, or as high as 9%, in the volume of PCs that will ship worldwide in 2020, TechCrunch's Manish Singh reports. The firm estimates that PC shipments will fall 10.1%-20.6% in Q1, and the impact will remain visible in Q2, when the shipments are expected to fall 8.9%-23.4%, Singh says. In the best-case scenario, the outbreak would mean 382M units would ship this year, down 3.4% from last year, Singh says, noting that in the worst-case scenario roughly 362M units would ship, down 8.5% year-over-year.
This was 100% certain a week ago, but the market is stupid and complacent and they need concrete things like this to realize what's obvious (which is why I and others can make money).
The impacts on trade, travel and production/supply chains are already going to happen at a moderate level even if the virus is contained now. This is a good proxy for China's economy right now (a lot more reliable than spotty reporting or official data):
Look at the red line. China is still near completely shut down, using power at the levels it normally uses during the 2 week total production/business shutdown Chinese New Year holiday. About half normal levels. Cars sales in China are down 93% so far this month. 1/14 of normal levels. If all the shutdowns are reversed tomorrow, it will be > 1 month to return to normal, and supply chain ripples will last longer. Chinese will also not have much spare cash to spend after weeks of no work/pay, affecting consumer activity. Singapore has seen a >90% drop in arrivals. A 2.5 million person city in Korea is shut down. Etc.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 02-22-2020 at 10:05 PM.