https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ng-about-covid
Very good article. Too many good points to highlight here but a few;
The famous ‘R’ (R0 at the start), or reproductive rate of the virus, could have been very high in hospitals and care homes, and much lower in the community. It makes no sense to talk of a single number for the whole of society. The simplistic Imperial College model, which spread around the world like a virus, should be buried.
It is data, not modelling, that we need now.
If the elderly, obese and frail are not just at greater risk of dying, but also more susceptible and more infectious, then by definition everybody else is less so. Gabriela Gomes and colleagues at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine looked at what would happen if the susceptibility of different segments of the population to the virus is very different, and concluded that in some circumstances effective herd immunity could be achieved with as little as 10 per cent of the population immunised. In the words of the study:
‘Individuals that are frailer, and therefore more susceptible or more exposed, have higher probabilities of being infected, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection, and thus intensifying the deceleration in occurrence of new cases.’
A study of 391 cases of Covid-19 and 1,286 of their contacts, in the Shenzhen region of China, found that 80 per cent of cases were transmitted by just 9 per cent of carriers, and that only 11 per cent of those sharing a household with a case caught the virus.
In sharp contrast to the pattern among the elderly, children do not transmit the virus much if at all.
A recent review by paediatricians could not find a single case of a child passing the disease on and said the evidence ‘consistently demonstrates reduced infection and infectivity of children in the transmission chain’. One boy who caught it while skiing failed to give it to 170 contacts, but he also had both flu and a cold, which he donated to two siblings. Children appear to have
ACE2 receptors, the cellular lock that the coronavirus picks, in their
noses but
not their lungs.
Had to go to an AFC urgent care today... wife slipped at work and needed stiches. They are offering 15min tests and antibody testing (though they mentioned the issue with this is previous exposure to other coronaviruses). This was great to see but from the posts in here 15min tests are not the norm for most other places.