What are the odds against Hillary getting disqualified in some way as a result of her scandals? Anyone has a link to this info?

Cruz is better than what you got him for, but 14/1 seems about market rate for Bernie after tonight.

Hillary seems a 90-95% favorite now. Trump solidly in the 80s.

Brokered convention Trump loss seems less likely as the days go on (and more party pols endorse Trump), otherwise, both are closing in on "would take a big scandal to derail."

how do you figure that high for hillary? the south was known to go in her favor. i dont think she will fair well in the northern states and california. because of the higher percentage of literacy in those states. and Fl could come thru for bernie. alot of college towns around here and southern florida.
side note look at the corruption with the super delegates that will be hard to overcome for sanders camp i think.

0%. I am untouchable. Look at all of the scandals I've already survived. This latest stuff is nothing to what has come before. I survived that, and I'll survive this.


I am a 100% favorite. They have to lower it a little otherwise there would be no action.


Those states are all irrelevant. They are all heavily blue states that will vote for me no matter what in the end. They know it, you know it, and I know it. Bernie can't carry the red states, and I just proved I have far more pull in them. The Bernie supporters will eventually come around when they realize I am inevitable.


My delegate lead is impossible for Bernie to beat. I have almost all of the superdelegates. Regular delegates don't even have capes. Mine do.


Exactly. I own the Democratic Party. I've been working to own it for the last 20+ years. It should really be called the Clinton Party. Or even more accurately, the Hillary Party. I know where all of the bodies are buried. Everyone wants to curry favor with me. I have been planning this for a long, long time. Obama only delayed me in 2008, but he's come around since then. He's #WithHer now.

My presidency is inevitable at this point, and I will not be stopped from taking what is mine.

lol. well done on all your responses. this one sums it up well.

the truthiness in your sarcasm is strong.

I read/heard somewhere that within Bill's original internal campaign team there was a saying... 8 for Bill then 8 for Hill.

They are and always have been drunk on the power, not so much on actually caring about other people or the country.

The only thing that will keep the Clintons out of the white house is a third party run by Bernie. He will "ross perot" her, and give election to the republican. I dont think he will do that because he seems to actually care about the country, and regardless if you you believe with his views, he would not want to hand the election to republicans.

Sans that, she beats Trump. Or if Trump doesnt come out of convention as nominee, he goes third party route and "ross perots" Repub nominee (unlike Bernie, Trump cares much more about himself and ego than other people and the USA) , so she wins no matter what happens with republicans.

And the clintons move back to Pennsylvania Ave.


P.S. Trump "press conference" was interesting in and of itself, even more so flanked by Christie . Trump is obviously now getting coached and apparently listening to Christie on campaign strategy. Obv VP pick for Trump.

Nothing will keep me out of the White House. Especially not Bernie. He knows that a third party run from him could result in President Trump. He may be a communist maverick socialist freebie lover, but he does know better than to put Trump in the White House. He'll fall in line, and then he'll endorse me after he loses at the convention. And he will lose at the convention, if he somehow even gets that far. This is the Hillary Party. I own it. Including all the brokers.

Trump has no allegiance to the Republicans and may well run a third party bid. Doesn't matter either way. I'll beat anyone that steps to me in the general into a bloody pulp.

Oh good a politics thread in NVG.

Just what was always missing lol

Yeah, I think this should've been shipped off to wherever a politics betting thread would usually go, but meh, one thread is no biggie I guess.

It just serves as a constant reminder to me that there's a large population of crazy in 'murica. Donald Trump? Seriously??

I must admit as much as I love the fact it's happening (more from a comedy standpoint) it makes it very hard from an outside perspective for anyone to take USA#1 seriously when this can occur (Trump obv).

Anyway I am definitely not a politics reg lol so GL and carry on people

In case anyone missed this. John Oliver finally unleashes on the trumpster and sums up the circus that is Donald Trump fairly well.

#makedonaldrumphagain.

hillarious and all qft

Also hilarious it has not been made available for play outside of the USA

^It works in Slovakia.

Awesome.

And in Canada.

Not in Australia

Tilting

I think this is it for anyone having the same issue as me

Trump wins it is the only way to stop usa being run by a black man or a woman

You already had a black man, dont need woman next, what could you do for next election?

It's that kind of smugness that drives support to TRUMP.

What I think is "crazy" is to want to give the power of the Presidency to someone as openly corrupt as Hillary. Someone that circumvented the Freedom of Information Act and set up a private server then lied about it holding top secret emails before "wiping" most of them. Throw in her use of a "charity" to launder foreign donations made to buy influence (the Russian uranium mining company is a publicized example, but I am certain there are many worse) and her near million dollar speeches to Goldman Sachs and other bankers that she has refused to release and I can't imagine someone dirtier holding the Office.

/Clintons also did the bidding of bankers to make student debts exempt from Bankruptcy discharge if you want a direct example that affects NVG

//Would love to see a TRUMP-Bernie Third-Party Anti-Establishment run as I believe it would win in a landslide and bring about real change to a system that has been corrupted.

Hahaha this was good

It's any less crazy to vote for Killary?

Trumps speech last night was eerily similiar to hitler's after world war 1. Talking about rebuilding and making us great again.

For me im not too excited about hillary or trump. Guess you can't win em all tho.

She won wider than expected and already had an advantage.

Her early organization in Iowa may have prevented Bernie from being more competitive. It saved her from losing Iowa and NH, which may have given Bernie enough momentum to pull off Nevada and Mass.

As it stands, take a look at places like 538 that intelligently map out Bernie's potential path to the nomination. It's pretty grim currently.

I think super delegates matter more in short term (perception). I agree they are an unfair power advantage for party elites though.

Sanders has to do better than fare well. He needs something spectacular to make up the gap.

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/2/11146946...anders-clinton

Hoping to get vaguely back on the topic of politics gambling.

Updated Betfair decimal odds after Super Tuesday (do minus one to get X to 1 traditional odds and multiply traditional odds by 100 to get positive money line odds)

Clinton 1.59
Trump 4.1
Rubio 19.5
Sanders 36
Bloomberg 70
Cruz 65
Biden 130
Kasich 100
Romney 210
Ryan 510

To be nominated
Clinton 1.06
Sanders 22
Biden 65

Trump 1.3
Rubio 8
Cruz 18.5
Kasich 32

Interesting that after Super Tuesday both Clinton and Sanders are at shorter odds to win and Trump has moved out slightly for the presidency but stayed at almost the same odds for the nomination.

Zero smugness here. It's not like there aren't plenty of issues one can't find with our government as well.

I completely understand people's disillusionment with the political system. I just think this is a really, really, really terrible scorched earth solution.

I think the crazy part is that this is what your choices are in danger of coming down to.

But yeah...betting. Definitely seems pretty ridiculous to put Trump/Clinton at 99%. Still can't help but think there's a non-zero chance that at some point the anti-Trump voters coalesce behind one candidate and make it a real race in the primary. I also believe the Republicans are in some serious trouble either way. Trump wins the primary and manages to scare off millions of voters over the months of campaigning that are left, or Trump loses the primary, claims he wasn't treated fairly and runs as an independent, and Democrats sail to an easy victory.

Sanders needs to avg better than 53% across remaining primaries to make up delegate deficit.

currently behind by fewer than 200 delegates after vast majority of the south has voted which is really clinton's last stronghold of support

pollsters say sanders trails with ethnic groups and that that is his disadvantage but a bit unrealistic to make the assertion that ethnic groups in different parts of the state will vote the same. southern african americans and hispanics tend conservative and thus are more likely to support Hillary.

he also often loses in exit polls where voters for hillary say they have voted for her because they perceive she is more electable in the general even though they have an unfavourable view of her. unfortunately literally every poll that has come out shows the opposite; bernie is in fact more electable by far - expect more reluctant hillary supporters to move to bernie due to this fact in the coming contests as that info spreads around (is now being made a point of Sanders' campaign where it previously had been "conventional wisdom" that Hillary was more electable)


and yeah as others have said, superdelegate situation is just a tool the media can use to influence voter outlook on the race; in reality the superdelegate votes are not actually concretely pledged and if Sanders (or anyone) won the pledged delegate vote they would be basically forced to switch their superdelegate votes to sanders or face a loss for their party in the general election due to backlash

just my $0.02 from just finding this thread