If the HSNL guys are right and jungle has the edge skillwise and being better prepped - it has to be a huge edge to get an early lead.

I would have thought one thing in Toms favour would have been so much more experienced in nosebleed games.

Jungle getting stuck early would have been alot harder.

If it were televised, we would see the hand history action instead of a screenshot that says nothing.

i wonder if the ramen durrrr ate is what caused his downswing....

JUNGLEMAN IS MAN

quite funny that yesterday the pool was showing durrrr favorite at 66% vs 33

now it's down to 58 vs 42

Half the posts in this thread have to be levels, at least I hope.

Are you saying that their past NLHU games (18k hands or whatever it was) didn't factor into your betting decision? Or didn't you bother mentioning it as it is pretty obv?

its all about the marketing boys

I don't know, maybe 2.5 mil?

Love how so many are saying this is over. Just like when Antonius was up ~450k after about 15k hands and there had been limited swings before that, everyone said it was over, then Tom wins 1.8M in 5500 hands and he's the man again, then PA wins 1.5 million in 2k hands to take small lead again and it just shows how bad Tom that he gave up the lead and obv PA gonna win now that he's taken Tom's best shot, now after 40k hands Tom up over 2M again, and everyone says PA has no chance, even though we've seen 2M swings in FAR less than 10k hands between them.

Not that I expected any better from NVG, mind you.

I will, however, give you all one obvious hint not to look too much into this early session: Jungleman won 62% of the hands. That won't hold. I'm amazed Tom isn't down more considering that. That doesn't mean JM doesn't have an edge or Durrrr does, mind you, but it DOES tell you not to call the match based off this early result.

Yeah but they didn't advertise it at all. Its almost like the people in this thread knows more about it then they do. I find it very very unlikely that they are putting up any of the money. This is durrrrs challange and his money. It isn't even up on the fulltilt website yet properly, like on the front page advertised or anything.

Galfond lives in NYC and the other two guys you mentioned don't play HU NL like ever. I mean, I think CTS is the best big-bet poker player ever, but even that doesn't mean that if he just never plays he'd sit in vs jungle and have an edge.

c'mon Daliman, didn't you read that you can't compare NLHU variance to PLOHU variance?

The other factors were more important whereas the previous winnings just made me feel better crossbooking on jungleman. I'm generally skeptical of extrapolating too much from past results over extremely small sample sizes of HUNL (18k being a lot to play vs one opponent but basically nothing when I look back at the kind of 18k-hand stretches of HU I've had: insane heaters and insane downswings and everything in between)

How old is jungleman?
he looks like hes in his early 40s in that picture on highstakesdb.com

This isn't PLO though.

I doubt PLOHU is a 4x swingier game. I'd guess it's actually been quantified by SD as like 1.8x, hasn't it?

can someone update me on the challenge?

20

wasnt todays match enough of a factor to show how big the swings can be, 650k swing in few thousand hands

LOL noway
u r joking right?

Use search

I have 40-50% higher standard deviation in PLO HU than in NL HU, but the highstakes are obviously more aggressive and I guess PLO gives you opportunity for even more aggression, so the difference between PLO HU and NL HU std devs might be a bit higher at highstakes than in my games.

I would guess that in PLO you affect your SD way more with the way you play, while in NL playstyles of winning players are more similar.

No it's true.

Meh, I'd still bet on durrrr, his style is so fantastic.