That doesn't answer my question. Obviously chances of jm winning are higher than 50% now assuming none of them has an edge. I wonder how much higher assuming somewhat std std dev for HU (as pointed out this figure is not known but I am sure high stakes HU players/dataminers has *some* idea and can give various ballparks of results).
As there are 45k hands to play and jm is up 13 bi's this question could be translated to:

"what are the chances 0ptbb winner will run better than -1.44ptbb during 45k hands of HU".

sicko

I don't recall anyone saying that... Some players (eg. jungleman) have said PLO has more variance in 6max than HU, I have no idea how true that is.

PLO HU standard deviation is higher than NL HU, but the difference isn't as big as some people think.

Wasn't there some chat pulled from a session recently where someone offered to buy a % of JM and he said he'd sold out already?

dear 2p2 n00bs, please stop calling jungleman jman. he is not jman. Phil Galfond is jman. Thank you for your time.

This is insane and almost definitely wrong. Also I didn't watch the match but anybody saying a +14 buying upswing is crushing really doesn't get it. 8 buy-in swings in like <1k hands are entirely common. The amount of variance in a super swingy, sometimes uktradeepstacked 50k hand sample size is unlike annoying we've ever witnessed. I've got big $ on jungle man and while the 518k headstart is nice, I'm still worried that I'll lose big. With thar said I haven't been following closely or railing so maybe jungle is dominating, which would obviously bide well. But a lot of the big hands I've seen don't seem like durrrr made any obvious mistakes, if anything the one that stands out is durrrr's ownage call vs q5

this

call him J12 imo

FwF - durrr was 3betting 9x - is that his standard or nosebleed standard?

durrrr said that in some interview,i dont remember which one

Yeah J12 seems good.

in b4 JM

this makes me smile

chill yo!

Do you mean 9% or like 93s? Durrrr isn't a particularly high % 3better, definitely lower than most but it works because
A) he's more creative/better without the betting lead than most and
B) he has more "gears" than most and a lot of his game is based on changing his ranges/approach in subtle waysnthat cause people to make -ev adjustments

also where's that A2o hand?

Agree that this lead in itself isn't significant, but when you add it to Jungle's previous results V Durrr (PTR has him up 1.2 mil on him over 18k hands now), it does make it less likely that Durrr has the edge currently IMO.

It's been Durrrr's standard for a long time now. I think 3-betting pot has become more in favour recently I think (AEJones has started doing it somewhat, i've seen Sauce and Ashman do it regulary as well), but I would say most nosebleed HUNL players (Galfond, the Dangs, Urnot, Jungle himself) make their 3-bet size 10-11x with 100BB stacks then increase it as they get deeper.

in the first session jungle's f3bet was like 90% so 3betting 3x to 9bb would make it a cheaper bet+keep bigger stacks behind where durrrr is supposed to have the adv?

I think he meant 9bb.

i doubt durrrr is nervous at all being 1/10 through

dude post your hem graph with the blue red and ev line, ty!

No I meant in session one Daniel was opening 3bb and tom was 3betting to 9bb.

Where as Daniel was making it 11bb to toms opens.

So I was wondering why Tom was making his 3bets so small.

Also, has anyone else picked up on Durrr 3-betting 93s/63s seemingly every time?

Obv I can't say with any degree of certainty, but he seems to do it a LOT

wat.

guess i don't feel too bad u chose some donkament player ;p.

he means 9 x the big blind as his 3b size.

Do I need to say it again? When Phil Galfond and I played 6-8 tables trying to play 50k hands, we ended up playing 23k hands. There were definitely a couple days when either one of us won or lost 20-40 buyins

9x as in 9bb lol

Also Ariel - do you know why tom doesnt seem to 4bet much? Is that a balance thing?