Doug Polk's Challenge to Daniel Negreanu: Heads-Up NLHE Showdown (25k Hands) - Page 229 - Poker News

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Doug Polk's Challenge to Daniel Negreanu: Heads-Up NLHE Showdown (25k Hands)

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Page 229 of 362

First

29 129 179 209 219 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 239 249 279 329

Last

12-08-2020 , 05:18 AM

#5701

SizzlerFTW

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,368

Only 322 k left in Dnegs account until reload time.

Good bet if it will happen before 12,5 k hands.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 05:24 AM

#5702

MATT111

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 6,008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Threeflight

DN is living in a fantasy world.

In the post game interview today he is saying if variance and luck were even, then he would be about even or a little ahead.

If he truly believes that, he can gain massive ev finishing the challenge. Pretty sure he can get millions in action for the remaining hands getting at least 4-1.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 05:58 AM

#5703

theskillzdatklls

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 4,920

Quote:

Originally Posted by SizzlerFTW

Only 322 k left in Dnegs account until reload time.

Good bet if it will happen before 12,5 k hands.

Would have broken him this last session. At peak he was down around $280k then he had presumably over $100k on the tables.

One can only hope for the 13.37 seconds of table chat lulz mania when dnegs gets stacked and reloads for 10,420.69.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 06:08 AM

#5704

SizzlerFTW

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,368

Quote:

Originally Posted by theskillzdatklls

Haha exactly.

Losing a cool mirrion. I dno, that would be a good time to wake up and smell the coffee.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 08:25 AM

#5705

SandraXII

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 2,114

If DN really thinks it’s all just variance he should have no problem continuing to 25k hands right

Quote

12-08-2020 , 08:43 AM

#5706

Im Nacho Friend

adept

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 765

If he thinks it's variance he should continue indefinetly, or until there's like a 1% (or whatever he's comfortable with) chance he is better than Doug.

Has Doug said anything about more hole-cards streams?

Quote

12-08-2020 , 09:57 AM

#5707

dingdongdonkey

banned

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 1,061

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dreamer

This is the problem. he may go from -20bb/100 to -10bb/100

But he still loses 500K over the next 12.5K hands.

His ego wont let him quit.

There is another huge difference. We know Dnegs could go on a huge tilt.
Doug has not shown any tendency to do that.

I would be a lot of money that this match will be over the very second Negreanu has managed to lose his initial $1,000,000 deposit.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 10:06 AM

#5708

daca

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,533

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolli2013

But Dnegs gets relativly more better than Doug!

im not even sure this is true. it's easier too make adjustments to your opponent and pick up value that way where youre already the better player and very solid at what you do. it's harder and takes more work to improve your overall game

i mean doug can maybe spew less in some spots when he knows negreanu better but negreanu will have a hard time adding more aggression and fixing frequencies that might not be right

Quote

12-08-2020 , 10:13 AM

#5709

dappadan777

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,259

What is the side bet for this? I have no idea why Dnegs agreed to this except his ego let him get carried away, it's a bloodbath (not the results btw, just how owned he's getting in various spots).

Quote

12-08-2020 , 10:29 AM

#5710

vesku

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 176

Galfond was down 900k against VeniVidi in 100/200 PLO. He decided to continue because he thought he had been unlucky. If DNegs firmly believes he has been unlucky, maybe he should also continue :-)

Quote

12-08-2020 , 10:35 AM

#5711

Notor1ous

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 622

lol @ calling with a dominated gutshot , checking turn and hitting it river and calling yourself unlucky

plus daniel is hitting hands all the time for 7-10k pots as mentioned by a previous user

plus his hair is almost as bad as his postflop game

Quote

12-08-2020 , 10:42 AM

#5712

dhubermex

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,672

Quote:

Originally Posted by Im Nacho Friend

Has Doug said anything about more hole-cards streams?

I think Doug was asked during Monday's post-game interview how much of an edge he gave up Friday during the occasional cards-up stream. IIRC Doug said he believes it was about a buy-in, or maybe half a buy-in. No set date on another cards-up stream though, as far as I know.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 10:44 AM

#5713

NewAcctIsBest

banned

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 1,039

Quote:

Originally Posted by dappadan777

What is the side bet for this? I have no idea why Dnegs agreed to this except his ego let him get carried away, it's a bloodbath (not the results btw, just how owned he's getting in various spots).

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from people's inability to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their level of competence.

DNegs and friends wrt to HUNL

thinking dnegs and galfonds poker skill as similar seems lol to me

Last edited by NewAcctIsBest; 12-08-2020 at 10:55 AM.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 10:50 AM

#5714

HotChips

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 316

You watch dnegs will turn it around!! He has just been unlucky. He’s by far the more skilled of the two..

Quote

12-08-2020 , 11:12 AM

#5715

Exothermic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 16,810

Quote:

Originally Posted by vinivici9586

id guess 9 before 7

If this is the case then i guess i don't feel bad for the guy if he continues to lose at this rate.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 11:26 AM

#5716

deuceblocker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,830

He has done decently and about what I expected. If I was playing Polk, I would have lost much worse. However, I don't know why he thinks he can beat Polk HU.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 12:02 PM

#5717

mrno1324

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 3,055

is there an update for the all in EV adjusted win rate?

Quote

12-08-2020 , 12:33 PM

#5718

ProffesionalMalaka

adept

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 796

Quote:

Originally Posted by SizzlerFTW

Only 322 k left in Dnegs account until reload time.

Good bet if it will happen before 12,5 k hands.

Think that -674 takes into account 100k he won live so he should be down ~775k online, leaving him with 5.5 buyins. He might quit if him losing it all aligns with 12.5k hands but given how delusional he is, who knows. Not really sure why he keeps saying he got great odds to finish when he’s drawing stone dead. You get great +EV odds when the lottery hits like 800m+, doesn’t mean you should play it lol

Quote

12-08-2020 , 12:37 PM

#5719

dhubermex

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,672

Rob Yong with an update on his own High Stakes Feud prop bet.

What do you think? Will the grudge match end at 12,500 hands or will it play out to they play on?

Last edited by dhubermex; 12-08-2020 at 12:43 PM.

Quote

12-08-2020 , 12:44 PM

#5720

harkin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 4,858

Quote

12-08-2020 , 12:48 PM

#5721

parisron

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 20,822

Updated match line is Doug -2500/+1300 Fair value -1347(93.09%)

Quote

12-08-2020 , 12:55 PM

#5722

freedom 35

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 580

I don't see DN quitting anytime soon. He's been doing work building up the narrative of running bad (no comment on if he is or isn't) and quitting would go against this. I would expect a couple videos/twitter rants not related to his run bad in the lead up to a surrender.