They stop and 12.5k and then next session live at PokerGo studio.

Saw that video, got a good laugh. Edges are massive in HUNL. I won at 10 evbb in my career with the majority of my hands being against good-top mid-high stakes hunl players. Jonathan Little has no idea what he is talking because he is not a heads up player, so he is really just putting out some Pro Dnegs content. He likes to do that cause he is friendly with Dnegs and it helps him get some shares/retweets for his business. But anyone who bet on Dnegs because of that video was really mislead by him imo.

When 2 people play hu its almost never a 3 bb edge. 3 bb edge is basically saying that 2 players are more or less breakeven. The better player in HUNL very consistently has 7.5 - 15 and if its a beat down situation its gonna be more like 20 - 25.

Idk what my edge is vs Dnegs. Its less now than at the start. But its still very likely 10+. Its just the reality of how much is at stake in each pot and how hard it is to get really good at the game (Im winning at 21 bb so far, but probably more like 13 evbb. However if we remove live poker those numbers are more like 24/16, so you can take all of the above with a grain of salt).

Its also possible if he keeps improving it gets down to 5 or so. But to make that happen he is going to have to keep improving at a solid rate, and its very difficult to improve in HU, takes a lot of time and effort.

Agreed. It was Daniel's shove of Q-10 on the K river. Absolutely atrocious. What's hysterical is how Daniel pokes fun at people who think he's being serious in his humorous hand-breakdown videos, where he says stuff like "I guess I'll just raise for the heck of it", as if people think that's all his thought process amounts to. In reality his thought process is even worse, which makes his hand break-down videos funny for their unintentional irony.

Joey was speechless at showdown on the J2s 4bet hand, probably my favourite moment on his stream so far.

Everything you just described DN as doing is what he did all summer in Mexico live streaming.

He would check check check and try to trap....last a while.....bust...rebuy....maybe rebuy again.....make it to a min cash and bust and then brag about how he cashed xxx times out of xxx tourney's.

It was like clockwork.

He was never the aggressor. Always just a passive player trying to get that one big hand.

You're right about Gawande, but DN works with his coaches to break down hands and improve his analysis as well.

I've been betting on daniel on an individual night basis getting between +175 and +250. I'm way ahead.

About 8 units if they have split the matches thus far which I believe is true including the live session.

Edit: Dnegs has quit every session first and is more likely to do so up a nominal amount as he values booking a win. Although I guess that is all built into that +200 price.

Yeah he has quit up $10-20 K or so a few times. I wonder if he does that knowing his backers/friends/himself bet on him to finish ahead in any particular session.

It is actually not a bad bet as you are getting good odds and he can quit ahead after 2 hours anytime he wants to.

Hmmmmmmmmm.

Is that in line with what you expected before the match started?

Thanks for posting this clip. What a hilarious movie. I highly recommend it to those that have missed this gem.

pretty much this
while people suggesting polk should lost the first 12.5k hands to keep DN for the second 12.5 (made no sense) he might be smart to tank a little for the last 1000-1500 hands leading up to 12.5k

does DN always play his draws so passively?

Hi dappadan777:

I've been thinking about posting this and your post seems like the right one.

Before my psychology book came out in 2015, Negreanu made this statement in an interview on another website:

"I got into it, not for the first time but for the millionth time, with Mason Malmuth who’s writing a book on psychology and I thought to myself that there isn’t anyone more unqualified to write a book on the subject than he is."

Now this is from page 36 of my book Real Poker Psychology:

But perhaps even more devastating are positive swings for a losing player. Now he’ll believe that he’s the best player in Las Vegas or wherever, and I have met many of these, and will frequently see his bankroll disappear as he moves up and challenges ever stronger competition. No wonder so many self-proclaimed, world-class players are currently broke, and they surely needed something more than self-confidence.

Look familiar?

Also, there's another idea which may come into play here. I can't help but think that Negreanu will become mentally tired (as opposed to physically tired). Doug is certainly use to playing long sessions on the Internet where he's multi-tabling. But I believe Negreanu is not use to this. So, if he continues to lose, it wouldn't surprise me if Negreanu's play deteriorates, especially if he takes another one or two large losses.

(For more discussion of mentally tired versus physically tired, see page 173 of our book Poker and More.)

Best wishes,
Mason

Hi vesku:

I think you may be right. Variance in poker can be cruel and can make you think things, both positive and negative, are not as they appear.

So, the obvious questions are does Negrean think that the reason he has been losing is only because he has been unlucky? or is the fact that he has been unlucky in certain spots make him think that the skill gap between the players is much closer than it really is?

Best wishes,
Mason

He clearly thinks the biggest reason he's down so much is purely variance, he says it in every post-game interview. He's also said numerous times that DP is rightfully a big favourite but he's convinced himself that he's getting better thus making DP a less of a favourite.

I recall in some interview where DN said something along the lines of there being two types of great poker players - those with natural talent i.e. card smarts and those who lack natural talent but get good by studying the game. I'd say he puts himself in the first category and someone like DP in the second.

No doubt in his mind he thinks he's a better overall poker player than DP. He probably figured all it would take was a few weeks of top-level coaching, maybe a few thousand hands of play at this (for him) new format, and soon enough his natural talent would shine through.

There's no other explanation for him accepting the challenge and his current focus on the run bad.

Hi Doug:

I assume you didn't see this but it is my Post #2080:

Anyway, it doesn't surprise me that Little had little (pun intended) understanding of how this stuff actually works.

Best wishes,
Mason

Hi Howard:

It's possible that this may be a better bet than most people realize. If Negreanu plans to quit after two hours if he's ahead, but keep playing if he's behind and then quits if either he gets ahead or it becomes hopeless, then his probability of producing a winning session goes up. Now I'm not saying that he's doing something like this, but if he was, your bet might be much better than it seems and Negreanu could still be a large oerall loser.

Best wishes,
Mason

Hi pokerashich:

As I said, poker can be cruel and the loarge short-term luck factor is probably the major reason why this is the case.

I think you have this right. However, while this may have been the case years ago, thanks to GTO play, it's certainly much less true today.

In addition, he probably didn't understand the power of GTO play, especially heads-up.

I'm not sure this is the only reason, but it's highly likely, in my opinion, to have played a part.

Best wishes,
Mason

No. It's geared towards someone who knows nothing about poker. It's also clearly scripted in parts.

Mason

Do you think you would beat DNegs in a similar challenge?

FYI it would draw some ratings

Let me put it this way. There is no way I would play either of these people in a match. And this would be true even if I was the favorite (which I would not be).

In my life, I've tried not to do stupid things. And now that I'm older and are semi-retired, playing a match like this would be very stupid. If I won, there would be nothing to gain. But on the other hand, there would be a lot to lose. Notice that this statement is far less true for someone like Doug.

Best wishes,
Mason

hahahah this is like tuff_fish in 2020

For crying out loud people. Both Dnegs and Doug both knew Dnegs was a dog going into the match. Daniel has stated as much coupled with saying he accepted the match for other reasons than expecting to have a positive win rate. According to both Dnegs and [B]Polk[B] Dnegs has been unlucky. It is not unreasonable for Dnegs to state he has been unlucky or hope the variance changes, nor is it against the law to participate in something knowing full well that you are an underdog. We all have our motivations, and just because Dnegs accepted the challenge does not mean he's delusional about his prospects.

I like how danny boy is just getting roasted and toasted day and night here. You think that little dweeb got to where he was (not where he is, bc he is not relevant at all now) by turning down challenges and tucking his ego away? Only a moron would play heads up as such a dog unless he has something to gain/not worried abt the loss.
Mason you are the ultimate keyboard warrior! Does he suck at poker, no, does he suck heads up against polk, for sure. Let's discuss over coffee and lsd

I don't follow either these guys on twitter so if dneg is blasting his mouth daily then he for sure deserves to be shamed and blamed. Funniest part of this challenge is mason going full mickey goldmill for polk between rounds