Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
I don't have the time, or candidly, the statistical chops, to review this in any sort of academic way. But if I am reading the study correctly (which I may not be), here are my quick observations:
--The study does not purport to test whether protest activity caused non-protesters to stay home, although the authors speculate that the protests could have had that effect.
--I don't know why the authors are measuring social mobility using median hours at home and median % of time spent at home rather than averages. Using medians rather than averages often is correct, but it isn't intuitive to me for this particular study. (There is probably some explanation that isn't occurring to me.)
--The effect of the protests on stay at home behavior was exceedingly modest. To the extent there was a downward trend, it is barely noticeable in the graphs. The effect was so modest that I doubt it was noticeable to the average person walking on the street.
--The trend seems to be largely, although not entirely, attributable to the curfews.
--A lot of the results were not statistically significant to a 95% confidence interval (which is the usual measure for academic work), especially after they controlled for curfews.
--Even if the very modest effects on social mobility described in the study had been known before the protests began, it would have not have been possible to draw a priori conclusions about the effect the protests would have on spread of the virus. That's because not all forms of social mobility carry equal risk of virus transmission. I'm sure the authors of the study would agree with this point.
--The effect of the protests on social mobility among non-protesters likely would have been even more muted had the protests occurred during a time when schools were open and in session.
--The study does not purport to measure, and could not measure, the effects that long-term protests would have on social mobility among non-protesters. Common sense suggests that, if the protests continued for a long time, any effect on social mobility among non-protesters would dissipate.
Last edited by Rococo; 08-09-2020 at 08:40 AM.