No people that think poker is rigged is not from losing 1 time with AA vs KK if they won the other 3 times. They wouldn't coomplain over that. What happens is they lose for 2 or 3 months with AA-QQ and they get 2 to 3 outted like 2000 times in that 3 months. And they hardly winning any all ins. Then after months of this happening they question the rng. They dont' realize how much variance is in poker. And you don't either. If you thinnk you can win 5 days a week and only lose 1 day a week your just a clueless as he is. And after you have 2 to 3 months of straight losing you will start to question it too.

That is why poker is so hard to beat. You can lose for a year from bad beats. Lose day after day. Thats why a lot of people can't make it at poker. Especially mtt players. They will 2 or 3 years of winning and then have an entire year they can't win and go broke. Lex velhuis finally experienced it. Some of these other guys i watch on twitch haven't experienced it yet and they have their nose in the air right now. But in poker a storm is coming and unless you have br that can withstand a year of losing you wont make it in poker. And thats the truth. Guys like Phil Ivey, Dwan, Isildur can lose for 2 or 3 years before they win a few million. Not months it goes on for years for them. You guys have to understand its not that its rigged. There is just that much variance poker. And these poker training sites don't teach you that. Cause your gonna not want to play poker no more. They just say oh your running bad lets charge you 100 an hr and figure out why. But reality is they know its mostly just variance. Thats the truth. Thats why you see so many player quit and make poker training sites. They can't stomach losing for years and realize thats how crazy the variance is after few years of playing. I will say the flip side is that if you lose for years you can also win for years and go on a hot streak. It goes both ways so you just have to be patient and keep trying to improve your game. Thats all you can really do when it comes to poker. I understand though I have lost so much before where I am wondeing if this is possible. But it is. It happens to everyone.

This perception is literally the issue I addressed in the post that you quoted.

But PokerStars used to - I don't know if they still do - distribute a report to players showing their results with pocket aces. You should ask them for it - and publish it here.

Because it addressed the issue that you were raising.
I think the Maltese regulator is entirely unfit, and I think it is a discredited organisation given the series of scandals that have taken place under their watch. I don't trust them at all - that's why I don't recommend playing at a site regulated by them.

Fortunately, in the case of online poker, since you have hand histories, you can conduct your own analysis of your own play, so you don't need to rely upon the Maltese.

I imagine that PokerStars contracted with GLI to do the analysis and paid for that?

I don't know what this even means.
Yes, I think that an online poker site should be transparent and accountable to its customers. That's why, when I worked for an online poker site, I was transparent and accountable to customers.

I am very interested in it - that's why I worked in the industry for around a decade.
There are a few different ways of achieving randomness, they all revolve around getting entropy into your tool from outside the system.

I'm not familiar with what GLI do here - you can ask them.

The former tester of PokerStars, Cigital, described their methods in significant detail. I don't know if they're still online somewhere, but GLI probably uses a similar mechanism. GLI might even publish their methodology somewhere, you could ask them.

I don't understand what you're saying here. Maybe there's a grammar or typo error - Can you try re-phrasing your question?
Spadebidder conducted an extensive study which you can see online at spadebidder.com - but he wasn't paid by anyone, so technically not "professional".

Many folks in this forum (including myself) have contributed to various public investigations of dodgy sites, and most of us have not been paid for those - in a world of Linux/Wikipedia/Bellingcat though, I doubt that "professional" has much meaning.
Sure. I imagine that's true as it applies to tests by GLI - but I imagine that the poker sites themselves test a bunch of stuff, and players test it every day by looking at their results.

Great points but it's not possible for a winning player to lose for years of they are putting in 15k hands or month. If in Sun a variance Calulator u would see it's virtually impossible. My whole question is why don't we see the something live? If a winning player can lose over 30k hands online don't It happen live ? Forget dwan and ivey, they are playing the best players Inn the world so they will experience longer losing streaks. I am playing stiffs who have no wtf they are doing. There should be no way I lose over even 5k hands against them. And to tell the truth the only way I lose to then is with bad beats. U take bad beats out I would win in my regular stakes 27 out of 30 days. But obv that is not good for the poker site

So in other words; take out the hands you lose, and you'd win? Brilliant.

Seriously, and I don't mean it in an offensive way, have you ever had any complications with surgery, survived a coma or been declared clinically dead once or multiple times?

No. I will obv mis play some hands, will obv just run into some bigger hands and on those day I may lose. I may not. On the day I do lose I get sucked out on 15 times now

Yeah that's sort of what makes it a losing day. Would you prefer that randomness behaved in a way that made every day about the same? Then nobody would ever gamble. The universe just doesn't work the way you would like.

I guess u aren't understanding what I am saying. I am saying that u will play 3 days in a row with normal results. Someone hits flush 1 in 3 times etccc. Then u have a day where u are an 80% 10 times and lose them all. U flop top set 10 times and lose them all. All this occurs in the same day. It's like the cards know who u are and the next time u flop top set u say how can I possibly lose this one I for set of aces on an ace 93 board. Don't worry the dude runs out a miracle to win yet again, all on the same day u already suffers 15 horrendous beats. Makes no sense

jungmit

You should forget poker and play roulette, betting on the black each spin with the Martingale strategy, (assuming you don't think the roulette wheel is rigged against you).

There's no way you could lose, because with a 50%/50% bet like that you'll win every other spin.

So, knowing all that you have to be an absolute ****ing jackass to NOT play higher stakes on your normal days and play micro stakes on the bad days. Like you know the pattern, yet you refuse to take advantage of it. Like a total idiot.

Once again u don't know it's a bad day until u already lost. It's not like u wake up play 1 hand and can make a decision.

Not sure I mentioned any pattern. After I get my.koney one as an 80% favorite 5 times and lose all 5 times i quit. Little too late then to know it's a bad day

I play online solely on WPN. Here is my question. In the last 7 years I have played in approximately 80 live tournaments with Buyins ranging from $365 to $2500 with an ITM % of right at 25%. In the same time frame I have also played in approximately 50-60 live Sattys with about the same 25% ITM %.

This is where I struggle with variance online. My total live tournament count is right at 120-130 over 7 years with a total ITM % of 25%. Online I have played the same above volume in a two week span of time. I can honestly tell you that online I have gone 0% ITM for approximately 120 tournaments in 2 weeks or more many many times in the past 7 years. It appears to me from both my live and online experiences that variance is account selective when it comes to online play. I can say this with 100% assurance that if I play another 130 live tournaments in the next 7 years there is zero percent chance that I will finish that 7 years at 0% ITM. It may be over or under my previous 25% but knowing my skill level if I were able to play live for the next 1000 years it would never end up at 0% ITM. How do I consistently find myself in downswings online that appear to be impossible due to me live experience? Please Help!!

You´re either lying or you suck.

I can't say that it is rig but there sure seems to be something fishy with Pokerstar's Spin and Go's. I have never in my life experienced so many bad beats in a short period of time. I pretty much always get to the heads up stage but can never put the other person away...and I should have many times. I've lost 8 games in the last hour and in each and every one of them I got all the opponent's money in the pot and had them dominated only to get beat by trash. We are talking about several big pocket pairs including AA and KK being taken down by small pockets and unsuited connectors, and several times AK, AQ, AJ, being beaten by A-trash.

I understand there is variance and all but this just seems completely unbelievable. Every time I was about the put these people out they miraculously beat me, took the chip lead and then proceed to beat me with the same hands I couldn't beat them with.

update: just had another one - QQ vs A3 offsuit all-in and manages to pull out A K A 7 K

So it's no surprise for you to "always" get HU but you get furry mad when you lose the heads up.

You probably just play terribly and nit it up in the beginning while others don't and one of them busts. Then you're going in the heads up blinded down and are the favorite to lose.

So your hypothesis is that my lack of skill is evident from my always making it HU and then then calling all-ins with dominant hands? I mean isn't that the name of the game...getting them in a position where you have good odds of winning while at the same time getting their chips in the pot?

I'm sorry...I cannot control when my KK gets destroyed by J9 offsuit.

and I still hesitate to say it is rigged or anything because I have not been around it long enough to tell. Moreover, I am sure there are times that I have benefited from badbeats that I am not recalling.

No, I am saying making it heads up is meaningless. I can almost always make it heads up by folding every hand except maybe aces. When I do get heads up I will have chips though and am behind by at least 2:1. That means I will rarely win the heads up.

I think you are focusing excessively on one part of the story here. The point is that I am getting the money in when I should and am getting killed. I understand it happens - that AA will lose like 1 of 5 times heads up - it just seems to happen much more frequently on Spin and Go than in cash games...

I read the part about 8 hands you lost. I then realized you did not understand the scope of variance and that your sample is irrelevant, so I skipped that part.

I have checked again in your tool how pokerstars cheated me on the large sample in the time range from 1 April 2018 to now (spin & go tournaments and hyper-ko from 0.25 to 7$).


Where should I send this "evidence in the case"? To Pokerstars? To GLI? To the prosecutor's office? To the Maltese authorities? To the authorities of the European Union? Maybe just to God that he made me such an unlucky one?

Are you one of those idiots that thinks 99,33% equals 100%, or is actually extremely unlucky? One in 300 runs just as bad as you, you're not special.

Boy the response of some of you pos is Epic. All I did is ask for help and once again another pos from this site just turns it into an opportunity to try and crush a soul. Well here is your problem @#@#$ I have no soul #$#@ so $#$#@.

Show me all the buy ins and then we can figure out if you're profitable. Then we look at the sample of 80 and come to the conclusion the results of a few live donkaments mean nothing.

But the fact you think this means something is cute and also indicates you absolutely do suck at poker, that I don't need your results for.

Uh, if that is the case why didn't you say that in the first message instead of douchetrolling something about how often I make it HU?

Because it is true. If you're complaining about premiums getting cracked and that being the reason why you're not winning, you're playing too tight. This causes you to lose the game eventually but gives you hope because you manage to get HU every time.