First note. I did not expect that there would be only one person in this forum (respect Josem), capable of any intellectual effort and which does not close in his mental horizons.
I undertook the difficult task of "intellectual provocation" realizing my own limitations. I am not a mathematician, I am not an English-speaking person (my English is average, of course I support myself with a translator). Therefore, it is obvious that I can mix words and use them in the wrong sense. Some issues and concepts are difficult to formulate for me even in my native language! I can make erroneous calculations. But for a wise person, my intentions should be obvious. How to translate the problems of poker probability - what happens to us at the tables - to the familiar, simple, understandable phenomena.
Of course, we can take several statistics from hm2, enter them into the "calculator" and get some result. But you have to admit it is also not an ideal tool and the results we receive are difficult to relate to something. We learn that we are in some "range of probability" but it is still difficult for us to relate it to everyday reality.
I wrote that I simplify things very much by comparing the poker tournament to a coin throw. Of course, there is the issue of weight of probability, weigt of impact. And I was just waiting for the discussion on this topic. Can it be averaged and simplified? Is it possible to compare the probabilities of events in two different games? Yes of course. So how to do it?
I have a 50/50 coin toss. We can bet if the eagle or tails will fall. Bet with different amounts of money -10, 20, 30 $ And you always expect to be at 0. The more times you bet, the more likely you are to win 0. These are the simple laws of mathematics. If you win something, if you lose something - it is a deviation, can we define it differently? If your poker result is different from all in ev, is this probably a deviation? And this is not just a matter of comparing probabilities, it's also a matter of comparing 'generators' of probabilities. I think my intention was clear, even if the mathematical method was not perfect.
It's not just a matter of doing something wrong or good. It is also the question of whether we have an open mind, what are our intentions, interest, how we look at the world. If there is a problem, something unpredictable happens, we have the right to ask and get answers. And in the world of poker (not only in this mathematical) things happen and things are so strange and suspicious that refraining from asking questions is rather a sign of stupidity and naivety.
I will search and ask, I think that there is a conspiracy of silence around online poker. There is a lack of answers to many questions and surprisingly only a few people bother.

Obviously you need to believe there is a big conspiracy in online poker, otherwise you would have to accept your results are simply a matter of your skill and variance. Where is the fun in taking responsibility for your self in that regard, when you can instead be hunting for spooky ghosts!

Some people tried to help you (the one person dropped quickly as expected when he saw what you were, and Josem knows what you are but he answers for his own motives, much like I do to people like you). You will be happy to know that I will never offer a person like you such help in a genuine manner, because I know you have no interest in it unless it matches what you need to believe in - ie: your conspiracy.

What I will do is encourage you to research the riggie culture more, so you can get a better idea of those that went before you when hunting for ghosts. A couple in specific you will like are the following:

Stats riggie (note, you likely will not understand a word he says):

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...hould-1299786/
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...isive-1293249/
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...untry-1123425/
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...uency-1116343/
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...omaly-1007942/
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...l-play-985031/

and for a person who has a similar off-putting nature like you, read these great threads.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...tally-1706112/

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...41/?highlight=


You can also see a more complete riggie list here

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...=#post54651082


Now, some extra advice - no matter what anyone says, always dismiss it if it requires you to not fully believe in your conspiracy. Tell them that they do not understand the math you are doing, and that they do not understand how the world works like you do. Scream "Enron!" as needed to show a crime that was caught proves your crime that can never be caught. Even if the guy who programmed the EV calculator tells you that you are using it wrong - dismiss him and say he is part of the conspiracy.

Do that while learning more about your riggie heritage, and then continue to present your manifestos until the sheeple filled world finally sees the hidden truth that only you can uncover.

All the best.

Here's the simple answer, using your own words and meanings: from the data that you provided* your real-life poker results were the same as getting about 1.25% "divergence" on your 8,000 coin flip test.




*I'm skeptical of the data, 'cause I've seen a bunch of people post similar results on the forums over the year, with many people claiming to be running below EV. If that's true, then there must, obviously, be a chunk of other people who are running above EV to the same extent. It's not enough, in poker, for people to complain that they're running bad - then second half of the logic step is that there must be some group of people who are running good, obviously. Why a poker site would favour PersonB over you is not clear to me.

Probably the last general thoughts.
Are you a little interested in the world in which you live?
Do you know what global economy is all about? What is the role of money today?
Are you interested in politics? Do you know that less than 10% of politicians tell the truth to their voters? Can you recognize those who are telling the truth?
Do you know what contemporary journalist work is about? Do you know on what basis the media create an informational matrix in which we live?
Are you interested in a bit of history? Do you know the reasons for the biggest conflicts in which millions of people died?
And you're telling me about ghost hunting?
Are you serious? Or are you really supposed to play the role of advocates of the only honest industry?
and you are kidding too

You will be happy to know that this website has a blogging forum, where if you like you can post whatever you believe for the questions you ask, and you can even link all of them to why a multi-billion dollar public company spends a great deal of time and resources to make sure you do not win that much in low buy in SnGs.

Recognize that most of the real world will regard you as paranoid and whiny based on how you approach things, but just be sure that you include those doubters in your conspiracy.

Here is a link to the blogging forum

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/226/house-blogs/

Also, be sure to get all of your data in order - you may want to use sticky notes and red string on your wall to be off the grid from any evil overlords who will target you on the internet. Be sure you have your monitor off when you do it. When you are ready you present your fully fleshed out case to bring this industry down. Do not let 15+ years of riggies trying to do what you are about to do with no success sway you from your destiny.

All the best.

I am also skeptical when I look at my results in hm2 ... Can you please show the calculation (formula) how did you get 1.25% ("divergence") of my poker results? Did you just compare std? I guess I did not show std value, but I suspect that it is not difficult to calculate from the data I provided.


I do not know why you're trying to make an idiot out of someone. If I write that I'm 1 out of 48, will you be satisfied? Show these calculations if you're so kind and that will be all.

Maybe it was because you came in here pretending to understand EV and standard deviations and random distributions but spouted nonsense. You could have started by getting some help understanding these things before you jumped to the conclusion that because you lost at a game that inherently has a large luck component, that the site cheated you to help other players win instead of you. And you based this on data that totally didn't support your thesis.

If you really wanted help analyzing your results, there is a Probability forum here. But you went straight for the Rigged thread.

Yes, I calculated the equivalent standard deviation.

The calculations are shown in my post above sharing them, but here it is again, with the extra stuff cut out. You can scroll up for the full context, explanation, etc:

I think the bigger problem in this forum may not be the "poker industry victims" like me, who think they have discovered big scams, but maybe old stagers like you, who are forbidden to critically look at the reality. And I do not know what it is yet. Is this innate naivety, ignorance or maybe some business. If you pretend to wonder why the poker industry would do it, what could it be?
I started by asking questions, one person tried to answer them. Good and that. But that is not the end. I'm curious. Maybe I rely more on intuition than knowledge but as a thinking man I have great doubts. Maybe it's a coincidence, maybe not. But the question can be asked, and not only here. That's all.

Then piss off and go ask your "questions" somewhere else.

Who is this addressed to? Since you didn't quote anyone, I'd assume it was to the previous poster, but given that his post was taking the time to repost and show more clearly all the math he had done for you, that wouldn't make a lot of sense.

You should be curious and skeptical.

But unfortunately, human intuition is a completely awful tool to use to evaluate randomness. Human brains simply aren't capable of properly analysing randomness without using data and tools and mathematics to do so.

I assume I have posted this in this thread before, many years ago, but this might help you to understand why human brains and intuition are terrible at understanding randomness:

[i]Statistics, and randomness, are, I think, two of the most poorly understood subjects in our society, and it's poorly understood because truly understanding this stuff runs directly contrary to billions of years of evolution.

In short, our brains are hard wired to identify patterns quickly, and rely upon those judgements. If our forebears saw a lion running quickly towards us, they needed to very quickly identify it as a threat, plot a likely path of the lion, and get out of the way... and if they didn't identify this pattern, they'd die pretty quickly. Consequently, the only people alive today are the descendants of people who were good at identifying patterns.

However, this same pattern-finding ability in our brains is what messes things up. Precisely the same thing happens in poker - people see several similar hands in a row, and our natural pattern-finding habit kicks in... but this time, it isn't really there.

This is exacerbated by our mind only remembering those things that are notable.

Most people have a skewed perception of what is actually occurring at
the poker table. We tend to remember the bad beats, and forget the
times our best hand holds up, this means we think we are suffering a
much greater proportion of bad beats than we actually are. This is
simply how the human mind works, and is part of the reason why so many
players complain about their hands being outdrawn.

The truth is that your hands do stand up as often as they are meant
to, and this is entirely provable by a proper statistical analysis of your hand histories.

I suggest that you look at your hand histories using actual data and mathematics and calculations - as a bonus, most players also find that analyzing their hands helps them as players.

Good evening, I hope to be on the correct topic.
I'm here because I suspect tampering with BODOG.
I play only jack pot, (spins).
Since it does not have pt4 that works in this format it is difficult to know exactly the number of games played by me. It gets close to 2k games played.
I was only contemplated once in the 15x multiplier and never saw a bigger one.
My doubt is that in this room you can not watch other players who have been lucky enough to appear such multipliers! below is the probability of 15x appearing: 105 in 100,000.
I have prints of some bugs in which the bodogo compensated me for grotesque mistakes, like plucking chips and flop with black cards.
I'm finding it very strange, please tell me how to make a complaint because via bodog chat treat me with negligence

105 in 100,000 is about 1 in 1000. You've not crossed 2k game and you've encountered one 15x, which is pretty much in line with the expected.

What is the problem?

So why do winning players never run this bad live?? It's ridiculous to believe that a winner would run and this long live. Let me guess the players online a such better right ?? Well the stakes I play are full of idiots . I can break even with out even looking at my cards. So ubhave a good win tate overall. Yet still suffer the bad runs. It's ridiculous to think a winner could lose over 25k hands live.

jungmit,

You're quoting a post there from 11 years ago. Was that deliberate? Or maybe a typo?

Great point. But here is the problem. Yoiur aces will win as often as they should, the problem is when they lose they make it lose in streaks. So u win 15 times in a row with aces. Your known wont then lose 1 then win 4 more etc. No u will lose like 5 times in a row, then look at your odds and say hey your aces win as much as they should. I play plo online. Crush 5 days then get crushed 1 day over and over. Look at my stats yeah my hands win as much as they should. Weird how all the losses come on the same day tho??? Thoughts ??

For you it is more like getting crushes 5 days in a row, then get crushed another day and then get crushed another 5 days again.

U have no idea how i do in poker. Mods give this guy some infraction points for derailing my post. Ty

I guess do the math?

Odds are he gets bored and does not realize that more fun is had in an equivalent thread in the Global Poker forum (with actual riggies) than the dustbowl of nobody caring that this thread has become. While this guy is being retro and stale with outdated quotes and posts, in contrast an anti-vaxxer riggie is on display in the Global thread (odds are dungmit has no idea what that is). Not hard to see which is more entertaining.

But why do you address in my direction comments about the stereotypical perception of the world by our brain? I studied philosophy, communication, cognitive science, etc. I understand all this but I have presented specific data that has caused the skeptic in you too.
For a year I am about 300-400 buyins under ev. And if you played earlier 10k tournaments and your biggest swing was 30 buyins, you come back after a year and in the first 600 tournaments you get a swing of 80 blinds you are wondering. But it is not everything. You want to break away, you go to the plo, and in 20k hands you get 10 buyins under ev. and doubts are even greater. It is not much, but it sums up. And in the meantime, pokerstars have cut down drastically rakeback, making it a lottery.
You do not have any doubts that it would be in the company's favor to make a poker game of aleatory instead of a skill game? And you probably know how easy it is? You just need a small butterfly to trigger a storm in a particular system. Why storm? In such conditions, how big you grow does not depend on your predispositions, skills, but on how big hailstone will hit you on the head. You understand? Of course you understand. You are intelligent people. But this is a taboo subject.
Pokerstars is a company based in Malta. Do you know what capabilities this country has in order to control such a company in any way? Do you know how pokerstars received this certificate https://access.gaminglabs.com/certificate/index?i=187 from GLI with the famous sentence "VALIDITY: These findings of statistical randomness do not extend beyond the software and hardware components examined by GLI."? They stated that full house beats straight and gave the certificate. Not true? Prove.
Give more information. Why not? Companies from other industries have not only certificates but are also open to their clients. They provide all information. Why in the situation when there is a client interested in information, he should be shouted, called a ghost hunter, etc.? I like to know, I like reading, numbers and would love to read some report about online poker.
Why are you not interested in it? It is a fascinating subject also for a philosopher. How can a manmade tool reflect a coded in nature randomness? What are the tools for testing these tools? Can we investigate it in a different way than by observing the results of this randomness generators as we do to it in hm2 for example? And if so, does anyone investigate it in a professional way? Do you have something interesting about it or not?

Most certificates I have seen only cover the shuffling of cards. If u contact sites like itech labs they will tell you that they have never tested any game play on any site. They have only tested for the shuffle of the cards. So anything after shuffle has not been tested

If i post a rig post in another thread they give me an infraction for derailing the thread so I can only post it here sorry

I understand if you are afraid of derailing a riggie thread in another forum, that is now currently about vaccines and 9/11, with your outdated poker rambling stuff, but hopefully the wacky philosopher butterfly riggie above you, who is much more fun and interesting than you, will go for it despite those scary risks you mention.

All the best.

He is free to do anything he wants.