Quote:
Originally Posted by clawindsouza
Not sure if this has been discussed before. I went through a decent bit of this thread and couldn't find anything about it.
If our setup is Qx/Axxxx/ and the bottom row is already done (with 2 pair or better) and I get a King then is it better to place it in the middle or the top and why?
Either way you set it, you're looking for a 3-outer and a 6-outer to hit:
Q QQQ
AK AAAKKK
or
QK QQQKKK
A AAA
Your odds to hit both the 3- and 6-outer are exactly the same. It's more a matter of risk/reward.
It makes a huge difference if you're talking about Standard or Pineapple OFC, because you're talking about a ~15-20% difference in odds, and while a 6-outer is fine in Standard (78%/79%), the 3-outer is under 50% at 48/49. In Pineapple odds move up to 85%/89% and 60%/65%, obviously allowing more flexibility in decision-making. That's all heads up. 3-handed in position you can have up to a 70% 3-outer and 92% 6-outer with 12 more cards to come.
In Standard it's unlikely for both events to occur, so I'd prefer Q/AK since AA or KK middle will be winning a lot of the time, adding scoop equity, and there's not much difference between K high and Q high in front. Standard OFC scoring strategy is all about scooping and royalties, since FL is relatively rare.
In Pineapple, on the other hand, value is found while punishing your opponents in FL (as well as the royalty equity in QQ KK or AA+ top), and I'd be pretty comfortable setting the QK front, doubling my chances of catching a FL pair, with at least a 60% chance I'll pair my Ace (and you can throw in a small % of the time catching a random other two-pair or trips in the middle, say 7%, bringing the unfoul up to about 2/3). Conservative play in Pineapple will get you nowhere, and a single pair middle like AA or KK will quite often be a loser as well.
A very loose EV scenario is basically ~57% of the time you get there, catch your royalties and/or scoop equity plus FL EV, so let's say you scooped, plus a flush back and KK front (all against a player who hasn't fouled but made no royalties).
So 6+4+8 = 18 plus FL EV of let's say 7, so 25 points, is 14.25 points.
43% of the time you lose 6 points, or -2.58
So the gamble has approximately a 12-point EV.