** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread ** - Page 46 - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

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12-01-2014 , 10:47 AM

#1126

ibavly

2010 PSOP Champion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 24,513

Hopefully it's a value added promo tourney

Quote

12-01-2014 , 10:57 AM

#1127

UncleFreud

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 3

7% rake, much value, so wow

Quote

12-01-2014 , 11:28 AM

#1128

STTranger

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 424

http://uk.pokerstars.com/poker/promo...l/spin-and-go/
lol 3 games out of 10m games, how would you feel when you are the lucky one to get seated in this game with top prize 1m and you are not allowed to deal and end up getting 2nd with KK < KQ, this is just too sick for words. yea 100k is amazing, but for the rest of your life that beat will chase you in your dreams. Let's just give away 1.2m total to 3players with a <1k liferoll and will just cashout and say goodbye to poker.

Quote

12-01-2014 , 11:37 AM

#1129

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

**** just got real

Quote

12-01-2014 , 11:37 AM

#1130

callme

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by STTranger

Depending on where you live it might be now more profitable to just play the lottery...

Quote

12-01-2014 , 12:04 PM

#1131

UncleFreud

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 3

An effective rake is huge.

Up to x2 - rake 33.3%
Up to x4 - rake 21.1%
Up to x6 - rake 13.1%
Up to x10 - rake 12.1%
Up to x25 - rake 11.5%
Up to x120 - rake 11.0%
Up to x1200 - rake 9.4%
Up to x240000 - rake 7.0%

2.4% of the BI goes to x240000.

Quote

12-01-2014 , 12:12 PM

#1132

Johnny.Wice

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 155

Quote:

Originally Posted by eddymitchel

baller custom full tilt avatar.

Thank you, eddymitchel. Was hoping I could purchase that character designed t-shirt somewhere, but I guess **** ain't gonna happen

Quote

12-01-2014 , 12:23 PM

#1133

eddymitchel

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 6,761

ask spamz if he got some high resolution pics of the avatar and get the shirt made

Quote

12-01-2014 , 12:43 PM

#1134

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

Pics in the full tilt folder is all there is I'm afraid. Not sure what format they are, could be vectored idk.

Quote

12-01-2014 , 12:45 PM

#1135

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Gonna need to re-think how I draw these graphs...

Quote

12-01-2014 , 12:57 PM

#1136

Michman

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 2,255

This will be under the casino tab, right?

Quote

12-01-2014 , 01:03 PM

#1137

sirluckbox

adept

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 704

I love how they make the rake a higher percentage then the $3 ones.

Quote

12-01-2014 , 01:04 PM

#1138

Johnny.Wice

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 155

Thanks guys, did find the pic I was looking for here. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/62.../index201.html
The third image in spamz's post, PURE EPICNESS.
Will download and register FullTilt, to see if I can find anything better.

Sorry for the derail, btw.

Quote

12-01-2014 , 02:01 PM

#1139

22riverrat22

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,447

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

Gonna need to re-think how I draw these graphs...

obv the degen in me is elated by the thought of the millball, but id appreciate someone scolding that part of me and im looking in your direction

are most of the people in that sim losing $? tough to see anything but some downtrending lines on the bottom, what itm is that simulating?

Quote

12-01-2014 , 02:17 PM

#1140

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

With that particular win rate (36%) the pre-rakeback expected ROI is only 0.3% and about 80% are expected to lose over 100000 games (not that the promo will run long enough to get to 100000 games).

Obviously it would be wishful thinking to play (with any realistic win rate) hoping to bink the big one, with a chance of around 1 in 10 million per game.

Code:

ITM	36.008052%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1000  simulations of  100000  games
Expected ROI (with 0% rakeback): 0.35%  ($1750)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
99% 	had ROI below   197.21%	($986031)
97.5% 	had ROI below   17.41%	($87071)
95% 	had ROI below   1.31%	($6530)
90% 	had ROI below   0.09%	($450)
80% 	had ROI below   -0.87%	($-4370)
70% 	had ROI below   -1.48%	($-7410)
60% 	had ROI below   -1.87%	($-9325)
50% 	had ROI below   -2.20%	($-11000)
40% 	had ROI below   -2.58%	($-12875)
30% 	had ROI below   -2.95%	($-14765)
20% 	had ROI below   -3.31%	($-16570)
10% 	had ROI below   -3.74%	($-18690)
  5% 	had ROI below   -4.01%	($-20055)
  2.5% 	had ROI below   -4.22%	($-21115)
  1% 	had ROI below   -4.56%	($-22785)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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12-01-2014 , 02:43 PM

#1141

22riverrat22

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,447

couldnt (and why hasnt) some other network just offered these at 50% rake and just advertised that they pay out twice as much as stars does per game?

id sign up in a heartbeat on any network that did and pay as much rake as possible via the format

Quote

12-01-2014 , 02:53 PM

#1142

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

Rake is high but I'd be really surprised if you could only get 36% winrate.

Quote

12-01-2014 , 02:54 PM

#1143

ChicagoRy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 20,589

Riverrat, If you haven't noticed, most other networks over the years have not been interested at all in competing with lower rake/fees, or lower short term variance games.

Most of them run prominent casinos and all they really embrace in poker is tournaments (which are similar to spin and go in the short term nastiness they can give a player).

That doesn't mean some site won't do it, but some of these sites have had spin and go style games for awhile and they didn't really blow up (save for Winimax I believe).

Quote:

Rake is high but I'd be really surprised if you could only get 36% winrate.

This seems quite accurate.

Quote

12-01-2014 , 03:06 PM

#1144

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

My original post with the graph was just tongue-in-cheek to illustrate what an outlier winning the big one is.

In the interest of fairness, here are some numbers for a 40% win rate.

(The graph is still scrunched but obv tilted up a little.)

Code:

ITM	40.007888%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1000  simulations of  100000  games
Expected ROI (with 0% rakeback): 11.37%  ($56875)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
99% 	had ROI below   207.84%	($1039206)
97.5% 	had ROI below   29.19%	($145931)
95% 	had ROI below   11.83%	($59175)
90% 	had ROI below   10.58%	($52900)
80% 	had ROI below   9.77%	($48830)
70% 	had ROI below   9.26%	($46290)
60% 	had ROI below   8.87%	($44355)
50% 	had ROI below   8.51%	($42570)
40% 	had ROI below   8.22%	($41105)
30% 	had ROI below   7.88%	($39420)
20% 	had ROI below   7.52%	($37580)
10% 	had ROI below   6.97%	($34870)
  5% 	had ROI below   6.62%	($33090)
  2.5% 	had ROI below   6.36%	($31790)
  1% 	had ROI below   6.06%	($30300)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote

12-01-2014 , 03:10 PM

#1145

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

40% seems a bit high overall

Any chance you can make numbers with a varying winrate? Just 40% in 2x multiplier and 37.5% in higher?

Quote

12-01-2014 , 03:12 PM

#1146

TuckinFypo

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 25

Does anyone have the script to auto register spins? Also is there any way to choose a preffered seat in those? Is it possible to make a script for this?

Thanks

Quote

12-01-2014 , 03:25 PM

#1147

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by spamz

40% seems a bit high overall

Any chance you can make numbers with a varying winrate? Just 40% in 2x multiplier and 37.5% in higher?

Anything for you, spamz!

Code:

ITM	39.404899%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5000  simulations of  100000  games
Expected ROI (with 0% rakeback): 8.28%  ($41386)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
99% 	had ROI below   204.24%	($1021216)
97.5% 	had ROI below   24.80%	($123996)
95% 	had ROI below   8.90%	($44490)
90% 	had ROI below   7.75%	($38770)
80% 	had ROI below   6.85%	($34235)
70% 	had ROI below   6.33%	($31675)
60% 	had ROI below   5.92%	($29580)
50% 	had ROI below   5.53%	($27650)
40% 	had ROI below   5.18%	($25890)
30% 	had ROI below   4.85%	($24270)
20% 	had ROI below   4.48%	($22420)
10% 	had ROI below   4.03%	($20160)
  5% 	had ROI below   3.73%	($18665)
  2.5% 	had ROI below   3.51%	($17545)
  1% 	had ROI below   3.21%	($16070)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  99% 	had a downswing greater than   $530
  97.5% 	had a downswing greater than   $560
  95% 	had a downswing greater than   $590
  90% 	had a downswing greater than   $630
  80% 	had a downswing greater than   $675
  70% 	had a downswing greater than   $715
  60% 	had a downswing greater than   $755
  50% 	had a downswing greater than   $795
  40% 	had a downswing greater than   $840
  30% 	had a downswing greater than   $900
  20% 	had a downswing greater than   $965
  10% 	had a downswing greater than   $1080
  5% 	had a downswing greater than   $1185
  2.5% 	had a downswing greater than   $1280
  1% 	had a downswing greater than   $1415
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  99% 	had a low point lower than   $0
  97.5% 	had a low point lower than   $0
  95% 	had a low point lower than   $-5
  90% 	had a low point lower than   $-15
  80% 	had a low point lower than   $-35
  70% 	had a low point lower than   $-55
  60% 	had a low point lower than   $-75
  50% 	had a low point lower than   $-105
  40% 	had a low point lower than   $-140
  30% 	had a low point lower than   $-180
  20% 	had a low point lower than   $-240
  10% 	had a low point lower than   $-360
  5% 	had a low point lower than   $-460
  2.5% 	had a low point lower than   $-565
  1% 	had a low point lower than   $-730
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote

12-01-2014 , 03:25 PM

#1148

22riverrat22

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,447

id be curious to see variance sims of the $5s ignoring the big spin altogether (just calling it 9.4% rake and ignoring the big spin)

(maxcut if i used your equation from earlier in the thread correctly the number inside the bracket is (evitm*2.718-1)*100 for the 5s ignoring the mil spin potential to generate the following:

51 ev chips per game, 36.8% itm, -0.16% roi
58 ev chips per game, 37.2% itm, 1.1% roi
69 ev chips per game, 37.9% itm, 3.1% roi
86 ev chips per game, 39.1% itm, 6.1% roi
96 ev chips per game, 39.7% itm, 8.0% roi
(maxcut if i used your equation from earlier in the thread correctly the number inside the bracket is (evitm*2.718-1)*100 for the 5s ignoring the mil 2.79 subbed in if its including the mil

Quote

12-01-2014 , 03:33 PM

#1149

22riverrat22

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,447

if anyone is curious its 37 ev chips per game to breakeven at 7% rake

which id say is about half the winrate anyone who crushes these as hard as possible can attain

Quote

12-01-2014 , 04:31 PM

#1150

Furo86

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 887

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerStars Baard

Hello,

It is no joke, and it is no mistake, but rather part of a promotion that will be announced on the main websites later today.

Thanks,
Baard

Hi Baard,

So where is the promo you were talking about? All I see is a overraked casino balla style Spin & Go which will make a handful of gambler and Amaya happy. It would be a promotion if you would rake these for half the % e.g. offering the same game with different payout is clearly not. But you obv. know this yourself - It really is impressive how fast Stars has fallen down and crushing is own reputation

Quote

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