Skraper is a Mental Midget in 2015 - Staking, Grinding, Hiking
01-14-2015
, 05:03 PM
Hey guys. New year, new thread.
Previous Threads:
Beating Tilt Again and Crushing 1000nl
Beating Tilt and Crushing 400nl
For those who don't know me, I'm a professional poker player living in Las Vegas. I moved here in May of 2014. I manage and coach the Imawhale cash stable with benjamin barker. I play up to 5/10 with rare shots at 10/20. I had the misfortune of being a victim of StickyRice1 (starts post 28) towards the end of 2014. I try to hike once a week or so in Red Rock Canyon which is only a few minutes from my house.
This year I am attacking several problems.
1) Quality Hours
2) Tilt
3) Technical Game
These 3 things have been a theme throughout all of my career. But I think we should expect to never become perfect at anything. Our goal is only to be a little better at it than we were yesterday.
I'm going to go more in depth on each of the 3 areas that I want improvement on in future posts since I have only vague ideas of how I want to tackle each problem. But here is a bit of what I've gotten so far. I'll post my thoughts on the problems below. My rough ideas for how to start attacking them will be in red
1)Quality Hours
- I often procrastinate on grinding. I think this is due to a number of reasons. All mental game problems are fear based. Procrastination is no different. I think the root of the fear is that I may lose this session, or I may not put up the winrate that I want over the course of 50k or 100k hands. So when I have a good month and I post a fancy graph with some awesome winrate, it actually makes me less likely to grind hard in the following days/weeks because I subconsciously don't want to face the possibility of grinding hard and putting up a much less sexy result. This is flawed logic.
I read a book called The Now Habit. It was a great book and talks about how procrastination is just the fight or flight mechanism. I am fleeing from the possibility of trying hard and failing by not trying. That way at the end of a month I can say well of course I didn't get the results I wanted, I only played x hands or x hours. But if I put in the work and the hours and still don't get the results I want, thats very damaging to my self esteem/self image.
- Focus on getting in a morning session. Evenings are very busy and its far too easy to over estimate the amount of free time and/or willpower you will have. The morning is when your mind is the sharpest and you are most free to put time in
- Do not open skype or email until after your first session at the tables. It's far too easy to get lost in staking and coaching things right away and then run out of time to play. Nothing is so urgent it cant wait a few hours
2) Tilt
Tilt is the other side of the coin. It is the fight instinct. I'm already at the tables, nowhere to flee, so I have to fight. A common cause of tilt for me are getting into spots where I'm unsure and making a decision and then having it not go right. This strikes to the same subconscious fear. Maybe I'm not that great at poker. I don't understand this spot and I never will and I'll just lose here every time. This hurts my self image in the same way that having a bad month would. But it's much more immediate and causes a more violent reaction.
This is not to say that I go on raging tilt at any point. But as the frustration builds decisions become tougher and tougher. I rarely reach the point of no return anymore, but this doesn't mean that the anger and frustration don't affect my bottom line.
- Live journal during sessions. You always deal with mistakes and bad luck best when you are writing down your thoughts and feelings in REAL TIME
- Implement a quick cool down process where you rate your Mental Game play for the session as well as note down any technical spots you think you should work on away from the table
3) Technical Game
My game or at least my confidence in my game has slipped over the last several months. This is due partially to a non-stellar ending to 2014 as well as almost never working on my game on my own away from the table for the last few months. I do a HH review with benjamin barker once a week but this isn't enough. I felt my best and improved the most when I was analyzing hands in depth, on my own after every session.
- Do one in depth hand analysis in notepad before every session. This is likely more helpful than doing a more cursory review of several marked hands even if you only get to 1 out of a dozen marked hands from last session.
Thanks for taking the time to read guys!
----------------------------------------------------------------
Here are a few PGC threads of my friends or students if you're interested
benjamin barker - 2015 - One Thousand Hours
I talk to Dan more than anyone else in the poker world. Always a really good thought process. Always very focused on improving.
Busate - Highstakes by the end of the 2015
Busate is a good friend of mine that I've known for 3 or 4 years. He took a break from online poker for an entire year but came back mid 2014, started at 50nl and is now taking 400nl shots.
RockstarRossi - From Corporate Clown to Value Town: 2015 a cash game odyssey
McDonalds executive -> MTT grinder -> small stakes cash grinder.
TheTyman9 - Crushing Bovada Midstakes and Being Healthier
First talked to him maybe 2 years ago. He was struggling to beat 50nl. Now playing up to 5/10 HU and 6max and just really crushing it lately.
clydetheglide - 200k+ in 2015: Poker and General Wellness
Big swings, big heart. Has probably played more hands than anyone on the Merge network over the last year. He's literally on every single table thats running and also battling 3 different guys HU trying to start new tables.
PokerDividends - the lord of the swings
Just started working with him. Plays 100nl and 200nl. Working on his game with goals to move up.
Aries77 Mental Game Notebook
Another guy I just started working with. Small stakes Bovada grinder.
Previous Threads:
Beating Tilt Again and Crushing 1000nl
Beating Tilt and Crushing 400nl
For those who don't know me, I'm a professional poker player living in Las Vegas. I moved here in May of 2014. I manage and coach the Imawhale cash stable with benjamin barker. I play up to 5/10 with rare shots at 10/20. I had the misfortune of being a victim of StickyRice1 (starts post 28) towards the end of 2014. I try to hike once a week or so in Red Rock Canyon which is only a few minutes from my house.
This year I am attacking several problems.
1) Quality Hours
2) Tilt
3) Technical Game
These 3 things have been a theme throughout all of my career. But I think we should expect to never become perfect at anything. Our goal is only to be a little better at it than we were yesterday.
I'm going to go more in depth on each of the 3 areas that I want improvement on in future posts since I have only vague ideas of how I want to tackle each problem. But here is a bit of what I've gotten so far. I'll post my thoughts on the problems below. My rough ideas for how to start attacking them will be in red
1)Quality Hours
- I often procrastinate on grinding. I think this is due to a number of reasons. All mental game problems are fear based. Procrastination is no different. I think the root of the fear is that I may lose this session, or I may not put up the winrate that I want over the course of 50k or 100k hands. So when I have a good month and I post a fancy graph with some awesome winrate, it actually makes me less likely to grind hard in the following days/weeks because I subconsciously don't want to face the possibility of grinding hard and putting up a much less sexy result. This is flawed logic.
I read a book called The Now Habit. It was a great book and talks about how procrastination is just the fight or flight mechanism. I am fleeing from the possibility of trying hard and failing by not trying. That way at the end of a month I can say well of course I didn't get the results I wanted, I only played x hands or x hours. But if I put in the work and the hours and still don't get the results I want, thats very damaging to my self esteem/self image.
- Focus on getting in a morning session. Evenings are very busy and its far too easy to over estimate the amount of free time and/or willpower you will have. The morning is when your mind is the sharpest and you are most free to put time in
- Do not open skype or email until after your first session at the tables. It's far too easy to get lost in staking and coaching things right away and then run out of time to play. Nothing is so urgent it cant wait a few hours
2) Tilt
Tilt is the other side of the coin. It is the fight instinct. I'm already at the tables, nowhere to flee, so I have to fight. A common cause of tilt for me are getting into spots where I'm unsure and making a decision and then having it not go right. This strikes to the same subconscious fear. Maybe I'm not that great at poker. I don't understand this spot and I never will and I'll just lose here every time. This hurts my self image in the same way that having a bad month would. But it's much more immediate and causes a more violent reaction.
This is not to say that I go on raging tilt at any point. But as the frustration builds decisions become tougher and tougher. I rarely reach the point of no return anymore, but this doesn't mean that the anger and frustration don't affect my bottom line.
- Live journal during sessions. You always deal with mistakes and bad luck best when you are writing down your thoughts and feelings in REAL TIME
- Implement a quick cool down process where you rate your Mental Game play for the session as well as note down any technical spots you think you should work on away from the table
3) Technical Game
My game or at least my confidence in my game has slipped over the last several months. This is due partially to a non-stellar ending to 2014 as well as almost never working on my game on my own away from the table for the last few months. I do a HH review with benjamin barker once a week but this isn't enough. I felt my best and improved the most when I was analyzing hands in depth, on my own after every session.
- Do one in depth hand analysis in notepad before every session. This is likely more helpful than doing a more cursory review of several marked hands even if you only get to 1 out of a dozen marked hands from last session.
Thanks for taking the time to read guys!
----------------------------------------------------------------
Here are a few PGC threads of my friends or students if you're interested
benjamin barker - 2015 - One Thousand Hours
I talk to Dan more than anyone else in the poker world. Always a really good thought process. Always very focused on improving.
Busate - Highstakes by the end of the 2015
Busate is a good friend of mine that I've known for 3 or 4 years. He took a break from online poker for an entire year but came back mid 2014, started at 50nl and is now taking 400nl shots.
RockstarRossi - From Corporate Clown to Value Town: 2015 a cash game odyssey
McDonalds executive -> MTT grinder -> small stakes cash grinder.
TheTyman9 - Crushing Bovada Midstakes and Being Healthier
First talked to him maybe 2 years ago. He was struggling to beat 50nl. Now playing up to 5/10 HU and 6max and just really crushing it lately.
clydetheglide - 200k+ in 2015: Poker and General Wellness
Big swings, big heart. Has probably played more hands than anyone on the Merge network over the last year. He's literally on every single table thats running and also battling 3 different guys HU trying to start new tables.
PokerDividends - the lord of the swings
Just started working with him. Plays 100nl and 200nl. Working on his game with goals to move up.
Aries77 Mental Game Notebook
Another guy I just started working with. Small stakes Bovada grinder.
01-14-2015
, 05:09 PM
Here is a hand I reviewed earlier today.
Hero: 8
6
Flop: 9
73
- I opt to lead rather than c/r this hand. C/R 'feels' wrong on this board since I'd have so few value hands, but lead depolarizes me some.
Villains Preflop Range:AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s
49% of hands
I can't properly estimate how often he raises which parts of his range on the flop. He might raise some strong hands, he might raise some bluffs. But because I don't know anything about his frequencies I'm just going to keep all of the combos in as calls.
-----I lead flop for 2/3 pot
Villain calls IP
We can assume that he at least folds his complete and total air, but continues with any backdoor FD or better and possibly a few AK/AQ without the backdoor.
This means he continues with appx 351/532 combos. Folding appx 40% of his range. This is roughly dead breakeven if I had no equity, but my hand has a LOT of equity making the lead very good. (perhaps I should lead 2 overs with backdoors also?)
-----
Turn: 9733
Turn gives me a flush draw but also pairs the board. I barrel for 2/3 pot. Villain calls again IP.
I think its safe to assume he is unlikely to raise any of his boats or overpairs once he chooses to flat flop with them. However, he may choose to sometimes raise some 3x hands and some bluffs. Again, I cant estimate his frequencies so I will leave all the combos as calls.
If we assume that villain doesn't fold any hand 2nd pair+ or any OESD or FD on the turn but does fold all worse holdings he continues with 235/342 combos. This leaves villain folding only 31% of his hands on turn. I would not be able to bluff here indiscriminately, but with the amount of equity I have against his 1 pair hands my barrel is still going to be profitable.
----
River: 97338
River gives me 2nd pair. Bluffing with this hand doesn't seem right. I don't think villain will fold many better hands, especially not TT+ and even his 9x will call often.
I check, villain bets 205 into 245. 84% pot. I need 31% equity to call.
I did a previous study with benjamin barker on this sizing and how it was value EXTREMELY often when we reviewed hands. That said, our sample wasn't quite large enough for us to be overly certain. And in this spot it 'felt' bluffy despite the fact that I couldn't put very many bluffs in his range. I could however put a LOT of vbets in his range. I think that most players would feel confident vbetting any overpair here.
If he bets K9+ and all of his air he is betting 119 combos (checking 9T-Q9, 8x, and 7x). Of those 119 combos only 15 are air (busted backdoor FD's), 12.6%. If I assume he checks back all 9x and only bets TT+ he is betting 95 combos with the same 15 combos of air for 15.7% bluffs.
Either range makes folding correct. the only way I can call is if villain is floating flop/turn much wider and/or turning 7x into a bluff on the river. Neither scenario seems likely enough that I would see a doubling of villains bluff % on the river.
In game I folded because I came to the same basic conclusion as I did here. Villain has too many potential value bets and too few potential bluffs.
For this villain to be able to properly balance his vbets and bluffs he'd need to bet EXTREMELY small on the river. His sizing here is almost certainly a mistake from a theoretical sense. Though its possible he only bets large with bluffs and bets smaller with value, but even his value bets are likely much too large. He would need to bet under 25% of the pot or vbet much narrower than he likely is.
The next question, is c/r better than fold? I have 2 sizing options on the c/r. I could shove for 865 or c/r to around 550. I would need 66% folds to jam. 55% folds to raise to 550. I could toy with sizing more, but any reasonable sizing will need between 50% and 66% folds. If I shove he will clearly fold his 12% or so of bluffs (15 combos). Would certainly have to call with 97/98 (15 combos) since he'd block everything. And clearly call with any boat (8 combos). It comes down to how he reacts with the TP (24 combos), overpair(30 combos), trips(14 combos) and straights(13 combos) he has.
We have him betting 119 combos. Definitely calling 23 combos. Definitely folding 15 combos. Of the remaining 81 combos I need him to fold an additional 45 combos to the smallest realistic c/r size and 65 combos to the jam. I'd need him to fold every single overpair(30 combos) and most top pairs(24 combos total) to make the smaller sizing +ev and I need him to start folding trips and straights also to make a shove +ev. I think he will fold his 1 pair vbets often I don't think it would be 100% of the time. Making c/r a poor option.
Hero: 8
6 Flop: 9
73- I opt to lead rather than c/r this hand. C/R 'feels' wrong on this board since I'd have so few value hands, but lead depolarizes me some.
Villains Preflop Range:AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s
49% of hands
I can't properly estimate how often he raises which parts of his range on the flop. He might raise some strong hands, he might raise some bluffs. But because I don't know anything about his frequencies I'm just going to keep all of the combos in as calls.
-----I lead flop for 2/3 pot
Villain calls IP
We can assume that he at least folds his complete and total air, but continues with any backdoor FD or better and possibly a few AK/AQ without the backdoor.
This means he continues with appx 351/532 combos. Folding appx 40% of his range. This is roughly dead breakeven if I had no equity, but my hand has a LOT of equity making the lead very good. (perhaps I should lead 2 overs with backdoors also?)
-----
Turn: 9
733Turn gives me a flush draw but also pairs the board. I barrel for 2/3 pot. Villain calls again IP.
I think its safe to assume he is unlikely to raise any of his boats or overpairs once he chooses to flat flop with them. However, he may choose to sometimes raise some 3x hands and some bluffs. Again, I cant estimate his frequencies so I will leave all the combos as calls.
If we assume that villain doesn't fold any hand 2nd pair+ or any OESD or FD on the turn but does fold all worse holdings he continues with 235/342 combos. This leaves villain folding only 31% of his hands on turn. I would not be able to bluff here indiscriminately, but with the amount of equity I have against his 1 pair hands my barrel is still going to be profitable.
----
River: 9
7338River gives me 2nd pair. Bluffing with this hand doesn't seem right. I don't think villain will fold many better hands, especially not TT+ and even his 9x will call often.
I check, villain bets 205 into 245. 84% pot. I need 31% equity to call.
I did a previous study with benjamin barker on this sizing and how it was value EXTREMELY often when we reviewed hands. That said, our sample wasn't quite large enough for us to be overly certain. And in this spot it 'felt' bluffy despite the fact that I couldn't put very many bluffs in his range. I could however put a LOT of vbets in his range. I think that most players would feel confident vbetting any overpair here.
If he bets K9+ and all of his air he is betting 119 combos (checking 9T-Q9, 8x, and 7x). Of those 119 combos only 15 are air (busted backdoor FD's), 12.6%. If I assume he checks back all 9x and only bets TT+ he is betting 95 combos with the same 15 combos of air for 15.7% bluffs.
Either range makes folding correct. the only way I can call is if villain is floating flop/turn much wider and/or turning 7x into a bluff on the river. Neither scenario seems likely enough that I would see a doubling of villains bluff % on the river.
In game I folded because I came to the same basic conclusion as I did here. Villain has too many potential value bets and too few potential bluffs.
For this villain to be able to properly balance his vbets and bluffs he'd need to bet EXTREMELY small on the river. His sizing here is almost certainly a mistake from a theoretical sense. Though its possible he only bets large with bluffs and bets smaller with value, but even his value bets are likely much too large. He would need to bet under 25% of the pot or vbet much narrower than he likely is.
The next question, is c/r better than fold? I have 2 sizing options on the c/r. I could shove for 865 or c/r to around 550. I would need 66% folds to jam. 55% folds to raise to 550. I could toy with sizing more, but any reasonable sizing will need between 50% and 66% folds. If I shove he will clearly fold his 12% or so of bluffs (15 combos). Would certainly have to call with 97/98 (15 combos) since he'd block everything. And clearly call with any boat (8 combos). It comes down to how he reacts with the TP (24 combos), overpair(30 combos), trips(14 combos) and straights(13 combos) he has.
We have him betting 119 combos. Definitely calling 23 combos. Definitely folding 15 combos. Of the remaining 81 combos I need him to fold an additional 45 combos to the smallest realistic c/r size and 65 combos to the jam. I'd need him to fold every single overpair(30 combos) and most top pairs(24 combos total) to make the smaller sizing +ev and I need him to start folding trips and straights also to make a shove +ev. I think he will fold his 1 pair vbets often I don't think it would be 100% of the time. Making c/r a poor option.
01-14-2015
, 05:10 PM
01-14-2015
, 05:57 PM
01-14-2015
, 06:03 PM
01-14-2015
, 07:32 PM
Thanks!
I did not. Due almost entirely to Problem #1.
I did not. Due almost entirely to Problem #1.
01-14-2015
, 07:57 PM
01-14-2015
, 11:39 PM
He bought in for 2k, left the table with 40k. He ran good against everyone. It was one of the sickest runs I've ever seen.
01-15-2015
, 01:34 AM
