liked the hand update, keep it going man

Great write up! Reading this makes me really feel confident about my 10 ball investment and definitely look forward to the next opportunity to invest. Thanks for the sweat and good luck the rest of the series! =)

Nice playing with you yesterday and nice write-up. I didn't know who you were at first but definitely wouldn't have guessed it was your first 25k and I agree I was pretty lost that AJ hand. I felt dumb for capping myself so substantially and made somewhat of a crying call

Thread is good, it delivers, and now Timex in da house--keeps getting better! 2015 2p2 thread of the year!

Only logical ending to cap this thread is a bracelet.

Really enjoying these write-ups esp the liveaments ones!

Not much I can add to hd-analysis really, but good to see a 'new/improved' pads mk2.0 taking a more 'holistic' and mature approach to the game.

GLGL for rest of Malta, and hopefully I can get in in time to get a piece next time?

Compliments/acknowledgement from Timex! - if that's not validation of your hard work then I don't know what is!

BRA - f***ing - VO!!!

Really enjoyed the write up, onto the next one as they say!

Unlikely you'll answer some of the questions but worth a stab

Howcome you decided to take a backing deal for your action? Is it to free up money to invest elsewhere/into your stable?

Is your backing deal online and live combined? Seems **** that if you brick a 25k/5k live, you have to ship something semi big on stars to cover it. Just adds huge variance to an already high variance online grind.

Are you still playing cash/going for SNE?

Really enjoyed your thread so far, hoping that rest of Malta go's well, and best of luck in Vegas.

Adam

Hm yeah maybe I could turn a pocket pair into a bluff too, but I may just take showdown tbh.

Thanks man.

Yeah, over it now though.

I played the 1k today bro yeah, here for ages though so will see you for sure.

Thanks boss <3

ma man xo

Thanks!

Thanks, we gettem next time.

Hey thanks alot for the post. I don't think you should feel dumb, seems wp. Unlucky with the 44, pretty brutal he has that exact hand in that spot.

Thanks for always being around.

I hate reserving pieces for anybody for anything, I've never really done it, i just post on 2p2/twitter usually, I hate when people ask me if I want a piece so don't like putting others in that position.


Hey, can't do sne with vegas/monaco/malta/scoop.

I wouldn't have taken the deal unless it was very great. We do things to reduce variance too. For example in the 25k, we decided to sell some too, whatever action I don't want on the stake the guy will always buy and I can always buy action myself too. For example in the main event, we will put maybe 2k on stake and then I'll take the other 65% myself. I also have a favourable % deal, although won't go into that.

Day 1, IPT Main Event

I remember the first event I played after the two big wins in Nottingham. It was a 2k and I shoved the river with AhXx in some spot on the river with the nut blocker when I bet, guy raised then guy cold called. It was actually a really sexy bluff, a really good bluff in theory. One for the TV's. Tom Dwan esque. Issac "HollyWood" Haxton was on the table next to me. This was definitely a hollywood play. But hollywood plays dont make $'s in 1/2k euro live tournaments. Peoples thought processes are really limited to "i haz flush, pay" Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to belittle them, I think way worse of myself for making them fold something I know is unfoldable to them. I don't care if Matthew Janda would approve or if Sauce would include it as his one bluff combo.

Day 1's of these things run 10 handed. You usually get good regs who late reg and then a mixture of bad locals, satalite qualifiers and bad regs who will play this but skip the main event. This is basically their main event of the trip and they will often do Hollywood Haxton moves. They love 3betting but always flat QQ pre, so basically they are 3betting j9s+, q9s+ a sprinkle of random suited hands like k3s and then KK/AA/AK. I have never done well previously in these events, I just always found a way where I thought I was unlucky, but maybe I could have folded those spots.

I started the day with hdggddkdglg having breakfast and then a spa. The spa yesterday was empty besides me and 1/2 others. Today there was loads of kids running around screaming in their weekly swimming day *reminds self to sleep in next Thursday*

I got to my table on time and I put my sunglasses on and didn't say a word for 2 hours. I played very tight although did limp/raise utg with kto (it was a good spot ) in level 1. Tom "Jabracadabra" Hall joined the table and we just spoke for 4 hours straight about every intricity of online poker. Rebuy factor on sharkscope, satalites to live tournaments, berating/praise of regs, discussions on nationalities of others at the table etc. It was fun to spend time with somebody who spends more hours than me grinding online MTT's.

I really only have 1 hand of note from this table.

Hand 1

German reg who said he had the worst seat in the room (direct right to me/tom) raised to 900, at 400bb. I make it 3000 with red aces and then this random guy in the cut off who had been 3betting quite a lot and going after good spots 4bets to 6500. I had round 25k here effective and I don't think 5betting is very good. I would peel here super wide as people know I basically never fold to 4bets when getting a good price and think its one of the biggest leaks for MTT players. I think jamming AK and flatting most other stuff will be good, I wouldn't 3bet JJ pre flop and QQ is close. Flatting both QQ/AK is probably fine/good anyway.

Flop 865cc. I check and he bets 4600. I call relatively quickly. Turn 865ccs ks

Obviously fantastic turn, he's going to jam AK and jam all draws that can now rep AK. I check and he checks back. I think he will have AQ/QQ/JJ/TT almost always now. River is a 5s brining the back door flush draw. I could check, but I just think he's more likely to call than bet the river with the range I perceived him to have.


Hand 2

I was playing something like 10/4 vpip/pfr on the first table, super super tight. One 3bet in the whole 8 hours and that was with Aces. I wasn't defending my bb very wide, I remember 3 occasions where I just decided to fold because I felt his opening range on a 10 handed table meant it would be too hard to make my call profitable. I also turned down 6 really great squeeze spots.

There was one hand left on my new table as I sat down. I look down at KJ in mp and raise to 1500 at 600bb. The hijack, a black French guy with beats headphones who I think plays tournies on .fr full time calls and everybody else folds.

The flop came J97ss and I decided to check. I thought about betting but just decided to check and reevaluate. This board looks like it hits his range more than mine so I don't mind checking this with non nut tp. AJ I'd definitely bet and QJ I'd almost certainly check. I was planning on calling a 1800 bet or something but he bet 3k. This was really weird. I perceived it as a "gtfo, i have weak showdown and dont want you to c/c AK"

The turn was an Ace. I decided to check, donking accomplishes nothing. He checks back pretty quickly. He can't really have any Ax at this point of time. AQ will likely continue betting. AK 3bets pre flop. AJ continues, A9/A7 continues. AA continues with the flush draws outs etc.

The river is a Queen and I tank a while before checking. Shoving here is interesting. I'm sure he would barrel KT (double gutshot) on the turn on the nut barrel card. I thought he could check KQ/QT occasionally, although I wasn't really sure. Due to his flop bet size I just assumed he had 98/t9 kind of hand and would showdown. I check and was planning to fold if he bet normalish sizing. He pretty quickly jammed 1.3x pot though. I really struggled to find value combos here. I thought about QQ but I just think generally he would 3bet pre flop and maybe not jam river. I think KJ is a pretty good bluffcatcher here. We block QJ/KT/T8 if he ever slowplays the latter and it feels like its just as good as AK/KQ. He could turn 98/jt/87 kind of hands into bluffs because he thinks I've improved to a one pair hand and he doesn't want to surrender. I called after a couple of minutes and he showed AJ for a turned 2 pair/check.

Pretty interesting line from him. I'm not saying I hate it or anything, just thought he had this hand 0% of the time. I kinda wished I was on my old table where I had good reads on everybody, but nevermind. I was now in the break with 25k instead of the 45 I had. This was the time, do I blow in this last 2 hours with my 20bbs mentally like I have done previously chasing my "peak" or do I keep playing good and rational and just concentrate on my big blinds.

Hand 3

This is just after the break. Villain is somebody who watched my videos on PokerStrategy, and was present when I did that huge river bluff in vienna, I also did maybe 2 other huge bluffs which he saw that day too.

I raise to 2100 with AK at 800bb (I raise bigger than almost any reg as my standard) and he calls from the button.

The flop is K72hh. I have 17k total. I think about things and decide to check and call down. He can value cut himself or just blow up. I would also c/f this board a lot too with my perceived image as he just has pairs alot and won't believe me. If he doesn't bet then I can pot the turn and then shove the river and he's going to know he's capped on the flop at having like QQ right? So he will call me down super often imo.

He checks flop and the turn is 9h. I pot the turn which obviously nobody ever does but I think my line looks so FOS and he has showdown so often when he checks the flop and will fold turn less than 20% of the time and super often call the river too imo.

He calls pretty quickly like he's disbelieving and I think I'm a ****ing genius. Just as I'm putting myself at number 1 in the pleno power rankings the river comes an off suit ace. An offsuit ace? What the ****? I hadn't planned for that one. I don't think he calls QQ now, I mean he could but its way too thin to jam 12-16 here imo. We have to think about which hands he can have here that call us? KQ? Likely bets the flop? May 3bet pre flop and can definitely fold the river. I decided to check and decide.

I check and he goes all in for 12k into 16. This was it, I had 50k. I now have 12k theres a pot to get back to 50. I have top 2 pair on AKxxx and he thinks I'm bat**** crazy. 2 months ago I may agonize a little, but I know I end up calling. 12k is still 12 big blinds shortly. I can work with that, I study 12bb play all the time, why should I be affraid to play it. Elliot described to be that stacks changing in a tournament is great thing. If we prepare to play different stacks and do things better than others with different stacks then that is a positive for us. I now started breaking down value combos.

99, very likely.
Flushes, hm.. So if he thinks I'm so super crazy (I'm really not btw) and I was playing a lot of pots at the time then he may not want to bet a flush draw on the flop incase I raise it. Crucially the A/K were both not hearts either so he can very possibly have those hands too.

Really gross spot, I ummed and arred but eventually folded. Would like to know what others think. He claimed AhQx but I'm not so sure I believe him. Even if he has this hand I guess it doesn't mean I need to call anyway.

Anyway I really play 50% + pots whilst I have between 10-20bbs. I'm limping, 3betting, peeling and playing very aggressive/splashy. We're in the last 80 minutes of the day and I felt people were locking up day 2 as they all had 50k kind of stacks and I'm comfortable playing these kind of effective stack sizes whilst they may not be.

I lost AJ v AQ aip vs a 15bb stack and was on fumes when I won k9 v aq. BUSTOVILLE moved to my direct right, great guy and won EPT Barca I think couple years ago. He had 100k and I had 10k, I told him he should go home and sleep now and come back tomorrow. He politely declined but I ended the day with 53.6k, I think I 3bet 6 of his opens and played some other pretty cool pots too.

I was really, really happy with today. Tomorrow is a short day, I think we finish at 6.30. 6 hours of playing my A game and trying to make day 3 to give myself a shot. If I bust tomorrow I don't think there's many other tournaments, I will just have a big spa day and recoup before the 2k on Saturday.

Once again a good read. Weird ak spot you brought yourself in with potting turn. Calling without hearts seems good, as he might overestimate the strenght of his ahx combo's, and people tend to bet their fd's the majority of the time on the flop. I think it's close tho, he def can have all 99 combos (3) he could sometimes have a slowplayed kk+ (1 combo each and only a small % of the time in practice pbb tho) maybe a few flushes, and sometimes the occasional 77 i guess as well. Ugh, pretty gross spot then vs his river sizing as I can't figure out a lot of blufs. Maybe he turns some pairs (with a heart) into a bluff as well. Ugh I think it's whatever in the end. Think calling without hearts and folding when we hold a heart might be the way to go. Also - although I tend to think it's sometimes a bull**** argument - we definitely are at the top of our range, and pbb will be ch/f our whole range whenever we take this (weird) line. Pretty cool hand all in all.

Gl tommorow

I'm around snapping pictures and looking goofy: stay pleno.

nice read as always. Keep m coming !

Hope you run good today. glgl

Always enjoy the hand analysis! Interesting to see how higher level players think. GL tomorrow!

IPT DAY 2

I was looking forward to this day. The field was really awesome and I had a good feeling. The day started off amazing when I won AA v AK aip on the first hand vs a short stack. The previous day I had been super card dead, but in the first orbit here I had AA/33/55/99/AK but unfortunately what I won on the first hand I lost mostly back. I built back up from 50-100 without showdown. We had a "reggy" table, but I was really unhappy for it to broke. I knew my image really well and most of the regulars had very glaring leaks. Not much to really discuss in exact hands. It was mostly picking good pre flop spots to 3/4bet.

4betting pre flop in live MTT's is just so good. These guys like I mentioned previously really dont 3bet JJ/QQ they always seem to peel it yet they 3bet hands as weak as j8s reguarly. Almost 0% of people defend vs 4bets and they choose their hands that play as 3b/f rather than 3b/5b. For example if they 3bet 55 they can just 5bet rip over a 4bet, but with j9s or QTo obviously you cannot do that. So if you use big 4bet sizes vs these guys who 3bet too much then you're going to be able to print. It's actually pretty hard to open a lot of pots in these tournaments, people are either peeling too wide or 3betting too wide, I really think the nut line is Open tight 4bet light same applies to 3betting vs good spots. Generally I make my sizings really big too, my range is going to be generally super polarized and I dn't want to get flatted. If somebodies RFI is joke high, its just so easy to exploit.

Anyway, I moved table to a table of a few flamboyant regs! I played super tight for this whole table really. I built from 100-160. Before probably the first interesting pot.

Hand 1

Active French guy who 5bet called 88 v AA and just won and won 22 V AA opens off 140k. I have AQhh and decide to just cal the 4500. A new guy in the sb who seemed young and pretty frisky decided to raise to 15.5k out of around 70k. French folds and I have a little bit of a dilemma. I'm making so many chips from playing tight and just picking the nut nut spots. We're around 100 from the money and I have a stack that will be able to crush the bubble pretty hard, especially with my relatively tight image. He can just 4bet/fold here so often if I rip but I hadn't seen him show anything down either. I wouldn't be surprised to see A2o but then again, I have nothing concrete to base this on. I peel and the flop is K92ssx, he bets 11k. i thought about making it 26k, but just decided I wouldn't do this with any hand so gave up.

I have around 140k now before the next interesting hand.

Hand 2

Folds to me in the cut off at 1200/2400 and I make it 5700, the same guy from hand 1 3bets again from the small blind to 14500. I have QhQd. He has 75k.

Pretty interesting spot. I think if I had AA I would definitely flat. If I 4bet to 23k I look so strong as its almost 30% of effective stacks. Jamming feels like I waste the hand. I actually think his sizing should be around 17k. It sounds big but I really can only jam/fodl here, i can never click and can never flat. I decided to make it 23k anyway with QQ as we had that little bit of history previously and he seemed to be playing too aggressive and I just wasn't super comfortable flatting. Thoughts on flatting here? Not because we're scared we're beat, but just because of how he will play his range vs our 4bet. Anyway, he jammed and had AA ;(

I was down to 50k and then won a hand where I raised pre, bet flop, checked turn and called river with ace high on j727x vs KT to put me back to 75ish.

Hand 3

We're now at 1500/3000/400 and our friend opens to 7500 from mp. It folds to us in the sb with 75k and QJdd. He had been playing a lot of pots and had around 110k. He was really happy to double up through me previously like it was a really big thing and went to see his friend etc. So I felt he was maybe some kind of live player who is local that runs over the live small tournaments here and really wants to cash. If I go all in and he loses he will be left with around 20k or 5/6 bbs so I think I really have a lot of fold equity here. I also think he folds AJ kind of hands, AQ I'm not sure about, maybe though? Flatting seems an ok option, the bb was a really good hsmtt online player though so wasn't totally sure as my range is super face up as QJ-KQs, as I'm jamming any pairs. 3bet/folding could be an option and I did consider it, I think if i 3bet hes way more likely to rip hands like AJ/ATs etc. Also may look like I'm on tilt/going after him etc. I went all in pretty quickly in reality and he quickly put a 100 chip into the pot and I knew I wouldn't be able to beat his AA again!

Pretty sad as when there was 250 left (i finished 219 with 195 paying) I was on a break with a really nice stack and I seriously think I hadn't made a mistake the whole 2 days so far and was really hoping for a nice deep run here. So to exit so quickly was a pretty tough thing to take, but thats tournaments! I'm unsure about the QQ 4b/c. I mean in the time it was super standard, I wonder if I should just take these guys to the streets a little more often though? QJdd I'm still pretty ok with.

I went to sleep at 9pm and woke up at 6am so sleeping is a little bit weird atm. Going to play the 2k IPT Highroller today and then if I bust will play online tonight/tomorrow. Going to play EPT on day 1b.

I don't like flatting QQ. Denying his folding range it's equity is pretty important w/ QQ, as is getting it in against hands you're ahead of now before anything develops.

Wouldn't sweat it.

Thoroughly enjoy the write ups obviously. Gl in whatever the next one is.

Interesting update ul man. I like your strat of open tight 4bet light, definitely seems cool. Also find it interesting how you said they usually flat QQ and JJ and when you got it in, you were behind. I think you definitely induced a lighter jam but I just find that something notable. Gl with rest of live and possible online grind man!

IPT HR DAY 1

I just remembered something from day 2 of the IPT which I think is semi noteworthy. I think people in live tournaments, including myself hero fold rivers way too much. That's why in the AK hand I didn't want to bet, bet, jam as people do hero fold to the third barrel alot but to the 2nd barrel they really cling on a lot.

On my right 50 from the money there was a guy who was playing semi loose pre flop but was definitely a nit and definitely wanted to get into the money. He called a cut off raise on the button and then folded to a bb 9bb jam!

I raise a little later at 2400bb with 98dd UTG to 6100. He defends the bb.

Flop is A25, he checks, I bet 4800, he calls.

Turn is A256r, he checks, I bet 11800, he calls.

River is A2567, he checks, I put him all in for 50k (pot sized bet) I'm pretty sure he was the type to 3bet AK pre flop and I think on the river his only calling range is 2 pair. They cling on but they fold to the river bet, I do think its important to make the spr pretty small so that they don't think they've put too much in. I tried to size on the flop/turn so that he calls 33/44/88-TT twice and then folds them too. Getting value in live tournaments definitely isn't just from value betting for value, value bluffing in the right spots can really help increase your stack. He actually showed AQ when he folded so that worked out well

Anyway onto day 1 of this IPT HR, I was so undecided to play, I wrote to the 5 friends who are all pretty good at making decisions what to do and they all said to play and then play ftops if I busted.

I started 3 handed with a joke aggressive Lebanese young reg and KRATS, who is a tough Israeli reg who plays very good. I had lots and lots of interesting spots.

Hand 1)

Mikeler raised CO, I defend SB with JTcc, bb calls. Flop T86, checks round. Turn K, checks to Mikeler who bets, I call.

River T86K9, I lead 2500 into 2400. I actually think my line is perfect but I hate my sizing, I think 1850 or something is better. Maybe 2100 is the nut size. Good line but I was a little sad I didn't take 4 seconds more just to choose a better sizing, he folded anyway.

Hand 2

Now this may be the best or worst hand I've ever played. I'm so unsure about it.

Antesvante opens to 375 in the cut off, KRATS makes it 1100 on the button. Anton and I have 25k+ and Krats has around 20k. I have 44 in the sb and its super close but I think overcalling is fine. The BB was very very splashy and would come along a lot and I thought Anton would call too. They both folded.

Flop 987. I think this is a mandatory lead with my entire range. I have a huge range advantage here and my range is very strong and he will check back good hands vs my range somewhere usually and I miss value. With the weaker parts of my range such as JJ/TT/22-66 I think protection is semi important too. I think players who don't have leading ranges on flop/turn are probably making semi big mistakes. I lead 1500, he defends. I think his defending range here is T9s, J9s,Q9s, K9s, A9s, QTo, QTs, KTo, KTs, ATo, Ats, JJ, QQ, KK, AA He may flat JT but I very much doubt it. His range is pretty weak though.

Turn is 3. In hindsight I think against the above range I should bet close to pot. He only had around 16k left though. I decided to check/decide. He bet 2300 into 4500 which would leave 10k pot and 14k stacks so he definitely wasn't trying to set up a river jam so thought he wouldnt have hands like JT basically ever. One of the biggest tells you can get from bad regs (I'm not saying he is at all btw) is that they will set up spr so they can shove when they have a nutted hand, but when they are bluffing they just bet a weird amount or an amount thats not too expensive. Level 2 is obviously thinking about river SPR on the turn and Level 3 is thinking about river SPR on the flop. Anyway, I decided his range was very much heavy top pair/overpair/j8 kind of hands maybe and thought c/r would work really well. I made it 5900 and he called after maybe 30 seconds.

River is 98737 and I checked, he went all in after around 10 seconds.

It was 9k into a pot of 17. So 9k to win 26k. I started thinking about value hands that beat me.

9x, I'd imagine he never ever ever value jams 9x here.
TT-AA, it seems really thin to jam here. What's my calling range? When I c/r the turn I'm super polarised to JT/houses/98 (counterfitted top 2) and then just air, I'm not overcalling any hand with an 8/7 in it
JT, I assume this raises flop, jams turn? Lets give him a combo of it anyway though.
99/88/77, I imagine he never 3bets these pre flop/occasionally raises flop

I'm going to break this down into combos..

I'm going to give him 8 combos of JJ-AA (I wouldnt imagine he jams any of these)
I'm going to give him 4 combos of JT (think this is unlikely)
I'm going to give him 3 combos of 9x (Again think this is unlikely)
I'm going to give him 2 combos of 77-99

For a total of 16 combos.

I need to be good 25% of the time.

Now lets think of some hands that could be bluffing, we need to find a 25% ration 16/4=4

AK, likely folds the flop/turn
KQ, likely folds flop/turn
QT, could definitely play like this
KT, could definitely play like this
AT, could definitely play like this.

So from this he needs to be only bluffing with 4 combos on QT-AT and also be jamming way wider than we expect. In the scneario that he jams JT, we give him 4 combos! I'd imagine he is way more likely to have KT/AT than JT here, both pre flop/flop/turn/river.

So I called. I won't post results yet, let me know what you think?


I have around 50k with some interesting hands played, I knock out Antesvante in a pretty interesting pot, where I 3bet jam 55 hijac vs button and he calls with ATs for 20, going to run the maths on this when I'm back in Budapest.

Hand 3

This is a super interesting hand. There's a Polish reg who is like super angry. He opens the hijac and I flat button with 98s. He makes it 3000 @ 1200bb from 50k, I have around 45k. Colisea (guy who won the 25k this week) calls from the SB.

The flop is A55cc, the Polish guy cbets 5k and I snap call in like 0.1s, I just feel like he doesn't barrel me when I do this. Colisea tanks, the whole table is talking super alot btw, probably the most I've ever seen a table talk and the most fun I've ever seen at a table.

From my twitter:

Reg comes upto me "pads im very angry with you, you won a3 v kk against me in 100r with flush on river and wrote in chat "flush""

Anyway, I tell Colisea, "don't make a bad call buddy, you know you shouldn't call here" He smiles and calls and instantly snap leads 7.5k on the 4x turn.

So the board is A55cch4s, the Polish guy calls really quickly and its on me. Really tough decision I think. My flush draws could have reversed implieds, but I really felt like Colisea had Ax here. He never has 5x or AK, so when I jam he should fold his entire range, but I've got to worry about the angry Polish guy. Can he fold AQ here? I'm not sure, he's definitely a reg, and my line looks really strong. There's 40k in the pot, and I have 40k isn. I was super unsure anyway, but I decided to call. The river was A5545 and they both checked. I just can't bluff here. I'm a sick, sick bastard, but not this sick. Colisea shows AJ and Polish guy mucks.

I come back from dinner, lose aq<66 aq6xx and then KJhh to TT on 632hhx. Nothing really super detailed to say about those hands, I think like I played great today. I adjusted from a super slow structure previously ten handed where I played super nitty to a turboish sturcture where we were short handed a lot of the time and I played very aggro. I enjoyed playing immensely.

Today I will play online. I don't know why, but I just have a weird good feeling.

Tomorrow I will play the main event. I always go for the very start, but I decided to get a massage for an hour and then do some meditation before and come a couple hours late. Hopefully its a good decision.

GL today everybody <33333333

Curious to hear why you decided to check turn in hand 2. What exactly were you trying to reevaluate ? You folding to a bigger sizing? If he checks back what do you on a brick river?

I like leading flop but I just think that leading turn big and doing same on the river is what your value range would want to do on this texture.

Hey, I haven't posted here in almost a year but I saw this thread via twitter and I just felt motivated to say much respect, and it's been a great read. Makes me reminiscent of the good old days when this is what 2p2 was all about - talking solid strat, good community, etc. Anyways just wanted to say thanks pads for the awesome thread and GL, hope to play with you at the tables.

legends itt

no offense to cinarocket, but he isn't really a legend right?

I won't post too much analysis of hand 2. I feel like a dick sort of being the only guy that comments with strat as a response to your strat.

That being said,

RE: Hand 2.

I think him shoving river with a hand like TT is pretty meh. I agree it's just super hard for him to get called by worse here (though I think he's winning pretty frequently when it goes x/x). That being said, stuff like QQ+ just has to be a no brainer shove as he can certainly get called by TT/JJ (maybe you have 9Ts here too even though you don't think you do). Most importantly I assume you jam most straights+ on the river [correctly] so I think with AA/KK he literally always wins where as with TT he may value cut himself).

one of the better (if not top 5 best) reads on 2p2 and, like Vanessa mentioned, reminiscent of the old threads/reads and last but not least, very informative

keep it up in this rhythm, padsy

I just want to add to my last post.

I think the rest of your analysis is quite good. I think it's a spot where people dismiss 4s as being too weak to call river but end up calling JJ/TT not realizing it's ~ the same except TT/JJ gets hurt by the blockers so I think its a super interesting spot to hero.

That being said, I think as you noted when talking about flop lead, your range is so strong here, we really have zero incentive to continue w/ 44 given how we expect them to be playing vs our lead (if our range is strong, and we've been aggressive he should be tight, right?)

I'm also surprised we called pre. Seems pretty meh being OOP. Even if the recreational player is pretty splashy I have a hard time seeing him having >15-20% VPIP here (and that's being generous). Which means that we generally end up in this scenario or in the same spot we're currently in except with the pfr overcalling (which is just w/e).

have a question about the 44 turn spot.

Do you play turn planning to check fold and then just go for it due to sizing? or did you already have some sort of plan?

I also appreciate this thread with HHs, irlstuff and livereports =)

thx & gl.