I think it's not very accurate to use previous fantasy points to predict the future. Instead i try to figure out the % a player contributes goals, assists etc. within his team. Then i look at the numbers the bookmakers predict.
Example Aguero scores ~40% of the goals for Mancity and assists on ~5% of Mancity's goals. When ManC is expeced to score 2,6 goals vs Sunderland he is going to score 1,04 Goals and making 0,13 assists.

It amounts to exactly the same. (at least as far as fantasy points contributed from goals / assists are concerned)

Here is another excellent talk by David Frohdart on Predictive modeling.

David Frohardt-Lane's Talk on "Predictive Modeling in Sportsbetting"

PROMYS 25th Summer Celebration
July 6th, 2013 at 10am

Abstract: In this talk, I will talk about the process of building a prediction model. The model in question will be designed predict the outcomes of NFL games, using only box score statistics in previous games, and built with the intention of identifying profitable wagering opportunities. The focus of the talk will be on how to extract as much information as possible from a limited data set. This should be easy to follow; I won't be assuming prior familiarity with statistics or football.

Manchester united is going to be on top this season since mourinho will be the one to lead them this season.He is the greatest coach that i have ever seen

haven't been ITT forever. anything other than DK going to be worth a look next week?

Mondo's mains' guarantee way down compared to last year :-( Also, most expensive player for GW 1 :
Vincent Janssen, 17.9 M

second most: Kevin De Bruyne, 12.5

Wtf.

I have always been a big Mondo fan but I have to admit that the last 6 months have been quite disappointing.

I am convinced that they are looking at a new strategy (becoming a b2b platform like they do in Italy). I sincerely wish them best in this new venture, but as a player I have to reduce my action to close to 0 unfortunately.

As expected, DK/FD will take the top two positions in the UK soccer market, and the hope is that there might be a couple of niche players on top of it.

for the non us, non uk players that are not allowed to play on dk/fd/mondo: fanteam.com now has weekly tournaments with $3k prizepool and a season long $5k.

OK so maybe i need to start grnding this epl dfs ting - am i too late to the party? Is it worth the time?

If so, anyone got a soccer forum recommendation like twoplustwo was back in the day for poker? Or is 2p2 the best place to discuss this stuff?

(UK player here).

Sounds v legal to me

Is the power point presentation for this available anywhere? Thaanks

For non UK/US players FantasyBet.com is a good option for Premier League fantasy. Offers both daily and season long games with similar rules to the fpl game.

Yes, Fantasybet are very good. They having a seasonal and daily/weekly games plus a six-a-side too. So enough variety there. Premier Punt are the other one with a similar game to the FPL version.

Here are further links below and David Frohardt-Lane’s Talk is there to view on Vimeo. Just google it and you can watch it. No idea why the link did not work on the forum post.

http://mag.uchicago.edu/economics-business/best-bettor

http://regressing.deadspin.com/come-...har-1544036088

Here is a list of new DFS sites for the 2016/17 season. Interesting to see the mix of new formats, scoring, gameplay and also seeing seasonal games side to side with weekly/daily games.

https://matchboss.com

https://www.matchdayfantasy.com

https://fantasysoccerkings.co.uk

https://twitter.com/gochalk

Interested to see for how long Fan Duel and Draft Kings will persist in keeping the same prize pools or increasing it if there are overlays.

Mondogoal surely will go out of business if they kept on offering the overlays they had last season. Guessing the prizepools will increase every week as long as they fill.

On DraftKings they are super fast in reducing prizepools with even a slight overlay. FanDuel with a UK only based platform can increase existing announced prizepools for the week if they start filling up. UK license does not prohibit announced prizepools increasing if the contests fill up.

Are any of you guys concerned about leaving funds on Mondogoal?

Kind of

fantasybet.com gameplay is good but only small guarantees/player pool. fanaments.com is another option for non uk/us players. best option for me is still fanteam, which is currently the most popular choice for the (small) german comunity.

FPL geek Daniel Victory with his expert analysis, explaining all his picks:

https://www.fantasybet.com/blog/your...ampaign=reddit

Hi Everyone,

Been a long time lurker - Thought i'd start contributing for the new season. Good luck all!

Yep, very strange pricing

I was a fan of Mondo last season but the significant drop in guarantees over the months is very disappointing.

From what I read only two bookmakers in the UK protect your funds fully. All the rest including DFS sites have either a basic protection or segregation of funds, which is not a full protection at all. In short, you have no recourse to your funds if matters go wrong and sites become insolvent.

So it is much safer not too leave too much in any site and best to just have small playing money one can afford to lose if the worst happens.

Correct, absolutely no DFS site is protecting player's funds. Most of them keep the funds in segregate accounts, but the accounts are in their names. So if things go wrong, the administrator will have access to the funds and players will just have to wait to see how much they can recover like any other third parties.

It is a good thing that the funds are segregated from operational expenses, but I am laughing out loud when sites, probably with tons of debts, are falsely advertising that the funds are fully safe.

Only option would be to grant fixed and floating charge of the funds to the players, for example via a trust. Sorry if I am missing you but it is an important topic

It's kind of hard to find complete rules on fanduel UK. I understand lineups entirely lock at the start of the first game of a slate. But one cannot see the opponents' players whose games have not started (not sure what's the point)? Also one cannot see who are the players who have already entered a contest?

Also rake seems to be uniformly between 13 and 14%.

Does a goal also count as a SoT, ie award 15+5=20 or just 15 pts?

I got an e-mail from FanDuel a few days ago saying "We have increased the level of player funds protection from a Gambling Commission rating of basic to medium, effective immediately. This means that in the case of insolvency, all player funds are now protected."