Lol come on.....

How are you defining ceiling? In terms of standard deviations above the mean or percentile?

Sounds half a goal underestimate or so. idk why you wouldn't just copy the market, it's always gonna be more accurate than projections unless you're pricing the match up properly.

You can pretty easily look at a teams projected shot volume as well as their goal expectation then compare that to the individuals projected contribution and get an idea of what their ceiling will be.

The quick easy method is look at how many points did the player get without score points vs how many points they'd get if they scored ~30% of their shots or about ~70% of their shots on target (same for chance creation). Both those number are over double your avg conversation rates so a pretty reasonable end point for ceilings.

Baba and cuco were both solid yes. Only spots I wasn't thrilled with was gradel (who would obv get subbed at 60-70, but still has a good floor) and Davis (cause who the **** knows what Koeman gonna do anymore). I briefly thought about ayoze who in hind sight would have been a great spot instead of gradel. Also if I think tadic is going full 90 I might want him over Davis.

Thought fabianski was the clear best gk today.

FWIW our model had City at 2.69 http://www.fantasyfootballportal.com...h-east-giants/

Always a bit tricky with these shorter price favourites though but Silva/Bony looked a good call to me, the Ivorian won't get many better chances than that.

Surely you have to evaluate ceiling pre match rather than post match

Blender got same 6 as DS today, not a good sign as blender always gets the best of me.

The shark on Draft Kings are something else. As the song said it "Mo Money Mo Problems." Watch your wallet my friend. Ha ha ha!

This projection/modelling is taken to another level. No amount of projection can predict red card dismissal, players coming off as sub or injured or the other so many myriad variables at play. Luck plays a huge part in these games, projection helps but with obvious limitations.

While we grind on DFS, someone is dutching on Real Madrid home scores 5-1, 6-1, 7-1. Easier money with less homework. Adjust for away team to grab one goal then adjust the home team to run a cricket score.

In a nutshell, one of the reasons why I am not bullish on DFS taking off in a big way here.

My model didn't account for McCarthy being a dumbass

My model needs a strong cuppa of coffee too. It is picking up too many yellow and red cards. Good to see light humour about our various world beating models.

Like 80% of people had milner so near no difference in red card. The McCarthy blunder then the mignolet lockbox win points however, big swings.

Posting to move thread out of spam zone.

Wtf is with all these Chinese spam threads anyways?

Or do both.

IMO you can't use projections in Premier League football, it doesn't work the same way the NBA etc does and the scoring system on DraftKings is so unbalanced that it's more about style of play of the team and who they are against than anything else.

Navas was my pick of the week (Being a Villa fan I know our weak links more than anyone) our full backs are weak and massively struggle against trickery and pace. Navas was always going to play 90 minutes IMO, he's a bit part player and it's a game where Man City will romp home and take Yaya/Aguero/Silva off etc before Navas.

Clichy was my second pick of this City team too, easy clean sheet and will be able to roam forward uncontested v Alan Hutton with Silva drifting inside. Both massively under priced.

Id have said Man City scoring 4 would have been about par.

Style of play and opposition are things that you can factor into projections though

What's your sn?

Well yeah, just meant that saying Traore hit his ceiling because he scored 1 goal isn't exactly correct imo. Pre match you would say he has multiple goal upside, just is unlikely to achieve that very often. Agree that you could say he was fortunate to score as many points as he did given how he played/the match played out (idk if that is correct as I didn't watch/review myself).

I mean I am not anywhere near experienced enough on any of this to have an opinion worth arguing for. But what you are saying in this post is/was my thinking at the time.

On DraftKings? Strumz

Ronaldo bale hulk el sharaway? Who we going for up front?
Draxler or gaitan?

Draxler and Hulk for me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0Z4cXFhVSQ

DS theres a step 4 going off at the moment with: RonaldoFan, Heskey, DraftCheat, Saahilsud, You.
+ 1 other whoever doesn't sign up.
You, Max, Heskey, DC are all deffo regs, maybe I'm a fish, still it seems a pretty bad game to register to in terms of game selection?
Though Max doesn't seem great at soccer from what I've seen so far.