Quote:
Originally Posted by zachvac
oh and while we're on the subject I've always had this question about NFL betting. Since the house just wants to to have half people bet one side half bet other and people generally are more likely to bet on the favorites am I right that the line is usually biased that way and if I bet on the underdogs 100% of the time I would show a profit? Next question is could it beat the juice lol. I've considered doing a test of a few years data or something but never taken the time to do it and was kinda shocked couldn't find anyone on google that had done it in the past.
it would be more accurate to say the line is biased toward whichever team gets more action, favorite or underdog. e.g., notre dame football (or u of michigan) or chicago cubs baseball. regardless of their fav/dog status, those two plays get more action because of their fan bases. so the book has to give a better price on their opponents to balance out the action, which is almost always their goal, as you said.
(if they think the public/squares are flat out wrong, they'll keep the lines where they are and "take the bet themselves," so to speak. but that's fairly rare.)
Last edited by five4suited; 04-21-2010 at 06:45 PM.
Reason: eh, maybe not so rare, more like occasional.