I'm bad at this math stuff, can you explain me, please?

I.E. We are on the river in position and deciding to make a thin value bet or not.
The problem is that given the board and hand strentgh we know (lets assume this) or suspect very strongly that he will call us with better hands way more often then with weaker hands, so standard or overbet size wont work, so if we bet 1/2 pot for thin value, knowing he calls with stronger hands around 60%ish and with weaker hands around 40%ish, we are gonna show profit, amirite, since our bet in itself has to work 33% of the time to break-even?

Good player answered me that it doesn't matter what size we choose, it still needs to be 50% of worse hands that call us to break-even on the bet.
I just don't get it.

When we bet on the river 1/2 pot we need to win in 1/3 times to break-even, so if we get called 60% of the time of our 1/2 bet we lose just 1/2 of the potsize bet and 40% of the time when we are ahead we win the pot and 1/2 of the pot size. So even if we lose twice and win once, we should be just slightly above even given 60% and 40% variables.

Please, some1, chew this for me, i just don't get it, why it's not.

Pot is 100bb

Bet 1bb - 100% called - 60% better hands 40% worse

Win 101bb 40% +40.4bb
Lose 1bb 60% -.6bb

Check - Villain 100% checks

Win 100bb 40% +40bb
Lose 0 60% 0

Change how much you bet and the only thing that increases is the amount you lose

This is entirely FE

Pot 100bb

We bet 50bb

Villain folds 33%

66% we lose 50bb
33% we win 100bb

If we win sometimes when we are called, then you need to split the 66% up into another % of lose 50bb and win 150bb.

Best off writing out the formulae in excel and messing around (it's around plenty).

Sry for not beeing specific. Ok, here it is:

I have a value hand on the river, but becauseof the board it's not that strong. Villain will have 66.6% of better hands that he looks me up with and 33.3% of worse hands as bluffcatchers that he won't fold. Ofc, besides that there are hands he is going to fold that are out of this range, or he might fold hands from this range some of the time obviously. SO if we bet full pot size, we are losing with this size, but will be breaking-even or above with 1/2 pot size bet then?

A river bet for value of any size in relation to the pot has to be called by worse greater than 50% of the time for it to be a "+EV thin value bet".

Let's say he will call 3 out of 10 times and fold 7 out of 10. Of the 3, he will have you beat 2/3 and call with a worse hand 1/3.

Checking behind you still win the pot 8 out of 10 times, but ANY EXTRA bet put in on the river has a positive expectation for him as (pot aside) he wins the additional money of your bet more often than he loses.

I don't play on Sundays but the big $5M sunday million tomorrow is too tempting not to. Interested in selling or trading some of my action, PM me if interested (I cash 40% of the times I actually play the sunday mill .. over a *cough* really really big sample haha).

looooooool, i bet all donkeys gonna play and it's gonna get close to 50k players, I'd rather buy a lottery ticket for that price and save myself life-time nerves over possible 30 hours of play just to bust out near any decent money:

Sry, Wut, didn't mean to offend you GG $215

lol PD what is this new avatar u got?

bump

i woke up just in time to take a fine girl out to dinner, polished off 2 bottles of wine. when i finally got home i dint realize how drunk i was but a quick -1k session was my breathalyser
cus of guys like me hu is nowhere near dead

Xwink is going down

just lost wit cole, now plays 2x 500/1000 Cap with PI, and one table 500/1000 with cole

That's because you're Swedish bro! Got to have the Norwegian oil run-good.

Just tried a short NL50 prop with a friend after drinking and wanted to hear some thoughts on what strategies people might try.

Both people sit NL50 until they get action, however much money you make prior to the first hand you lose is your score. Whoever makes more wins, your turn is over after the first hand you lose.

Put like $200 on the sidebet and the $50 doesnt matter so your only incentive is to build pots and then win them.

wish i knew the trick to this i would be richer!

If he's folding the exact same % regardless of your bet size - then betting more (when you expect to lose more often than win when called) has a lesser EV.

The point is full size pot bets fold out a larger range (and therefore a higher %) of villains' hands - as compared to a 1/2 pot sized bet. So we make more money on his folds, and we lose more on the other hand because our bet has a -EV when we are called.

Plus if the villain is folding a greater range of hands then his calling range will win more often, so the bigger better has a greater -EV still.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rebCmpZexOY in case u missed it

lol this actually sounds rly, rly fun.

Battleships imo

so who is makin deal with me in HU during SM and playin for Lamborghini Gallardo?

^^wow, cool, another one!












Nah, not really, you gonna h8 it after 29th hour to bust out right before any decent cash and might go berserk on people afterwards:

lol wtfffffffffffffffff

anyone want to swap 5% for the sunday million today?

LOOOOL cool gif

It's actually an animation but doesn't play in the post for some reason... anyway the URL is http://i817.photobucket.com/albums/z...d-gif-ever.gif

^^actually it does play just fine.