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We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME

01-29-2017 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
I think #2 will be the interesting one. From what I was just looking up (and it was hard to find much) it's pretty rare for an executive order to be overturned by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional. Congress usually gets involved changing the laws, but it doesn't make the executive order qualify as "unconstitutional".
Are you ready for arbitrary, inconsistent and legally dubious rulings?

Spoiler:
Welcome to the Trump administration
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
01-29-2017 , 11:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kokiri
2. Years until a Trump executive order is struck down as unconstitutional

Name## 
pwnsall0.547945205 
aarondk561 
IANAWW1 
JMurder31 
King of NYC1 
dark magus2 
nails2 
Xander Biscuits2 
accobra kid2.33 
Jedi3 
lilrascal5 

I'll be honest, I don't really know what process needs to be followed for this category to be met
Shoulda been "days" (lol!?!) unless you're waiting for SCOTUS
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
02-04-2017 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf
Shoulda been "days" (lol!?!) unless you're waiting for SCOTUS


I'm confident that this won't be the first question that proves poorly defined, but yup, I'm thinking that this is going to be <3 weeks.
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-17-2017 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kokiri
2. Years until a Trump executive order is struck down as unconstitutional

Name## 
BookerW0.350 
pwnsall0.547945205 
aarondk561 
IANAWW1 
JMurder31 
King of NYC1 
dark magus2 
nails2 
Xander Biscuits2 
accobra kid2.33 
Jedi3 
lilrascal5 

I'll be honest, I don't really know what process needs to be followed for this category to be met
What's the usual Guesstimania scoring system? Just ranking? I guess it's time to call this one.

Answer<1 month?Points 
BookerW0.3501 
pwnsall0.5479452052 
aarondk5613 
IANAWW13 
JMurder313 
King of NYC13 
dark magus27 
nails27 
Xander Biscuits27 
accobra kid2.338 
Jedi39 
lilrascal510 
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-17-2017 , 06:42 PM
Its at your discretion; generally they use a calculation to score on how close to the correct answer you were I think
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-17-2017 , 06:57 PM
Oh yeah this is a thing

I think generally it's ranked. Some people rank based on ratio with the correct answer, some on absolute difference, it's up to the mod
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-17-2017 , 06:57 PM
logarithms
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-18-2017 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xander biscuits
logarithms
I was hoping you weren't going to say that.
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-18-2017 , 06:06 PM
Eff it, I'm gonna go with ranks, based on some logarithm process I'll work out when there are people too high and too low. Here everyone is over so it doesn't matter.
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-18-2017 , 06:07 PM
Question 7(maybe)
Answer<1 month?Points 
BookerW0.3501 
pwnsall0.5479452052 
aarondk5614.5 
IANAWW14.5 
JMurder314.5 
King of NYC14.5 
dark magus28 
nails28 
Xander Biscuits28 
accobra kid2.3310 
Jedi311 
lilrascal512 
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-18-2017 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kokiri
Eff it, I'm gonna go with ranks, based on some logarithm process I'll work out when there are people too high and too low. Here everyone is over so it doesn't matter.
logactual answer(guessed answer)

or

logguessed answer(actual answer)

is the way to do it.

Just make sure that the base is the lower of the 2 numbers.
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-18-2017 , 07:16 PM
oh, and fix your Booby Trap Sheep entry
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-19-2017 , 07:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xander biscuits
logactual answer(guessed answer)

or

logguessed answer(actual answer)

is the way to do it.

Just make sure that the base is the lower of the 2 numbers.
This formula makes no sense. If someone guesses 1 their score is undefined. If they guess a number below 1 they get negative points.

If you want to use logarithms you should do: abs(log(guess) - log(correct))

Although if you're going to score by ranking, just use ratios, since it will give the same rankings as logarithms.

Last edited by DarkMagus; 03-19-2017 at 07:47 AM.
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-19-2017 , 07:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkMagus
This formula makes no sense. If someone guesses 1 their score is undefined. If they guess a number below 1 they get negative points.



If you want to use logarithms you should do: abs(log(guess) - log(correct))


No way man, it should be abs(log(actual/guess))
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-19-2017 , 07:59 AM
abs(log(actual^1/sqrt(guess^2)) + 0)
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-19-2017 , 08:54 AM
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-19-2017 , 10:38 AM
so when was it ruled to have first been struck down
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-19-2017 , 02:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkMagus
This formula makes no sense. If someone guesses 1 their score is undefined. If they guess a number below 1 they get negative points.

If you want to use logarithms you should do: abs(log(guess) - log(correct))

Although if you're going to score by ranking, just use ratios, since it will give the same rankings as logarithms.
answers of 1 or below rarely are an issue in a game of guestamania
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-19-2017 , 02:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pwnsall
so when was it ruled to have first been struck down
Whenever the 9th circuit struck it down, I think. Since that was never overturned and the ban was then Abandoned, that's the relevant ruling.
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
03-19-2017 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xander biscuits
answers of 1 or below rarely are an issue in a game of guestamania
it's still a horrible misuse of logarithms :P
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
04-13-2017 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kokiri
10. %age of the first round vote that Marine Le Pen gains in the first round of the French presidential elections

NameAnswer
pwnsall11%
aarondk5620%
IANAWW20%
accobra kid26.25%
dark magus26.80%
King of NYC27%
Xander Biscuits29%
nails31%
JMurder332%
lilrascal37%
Jedi42%

I was in Paris when Le Pen's father got into the runoff about 10 years ago and was disturbed from some extracurricular activities by the sound of french people in the streets. Then I went to a cafe, had a bottle of wine and managed to pay a random passerby rather than the waiter, and had a huge row with the bartender.
10 days to this round revealing. Le Pen currently polling somewhere between 20% and 24%

EDIT: thinking about it, I might go with the arbitrary and capricious ranking by absolute difference for this one. If the right answer is 20, no way is 10 as good an answer as 40.
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
04-14-2017 , 11:48 AM
11 is better than 10
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
04-24-2017 , 05:50 AM
NameAnswer
pwnsall11%
aarondk5620%
IANAWW20%
Actual21.53%
accobra kid26.25%
dark magus26.80%
King of NYC27%
Xander Biscuits29%
nails31%
JMurder332%
lilrascal37%
Jedi42%

Scores to come later.
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
04-24-2017 , 06:41 AM
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote
04-24-2017 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booker Wolfbox


Pretty sure you're in the official spreadsheet, so fret ye not.
We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME Quote

      
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