We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME - Page 3

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We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME

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01-29-2017 , 04:38 PM

#51

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I think #2 will be the interesting one. From what I was just looking up (and it was hard to find much) it's pretty rare for an executive order to be overturned by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional. Congress usually gets involved changing the laws, but it doesn't make the executive order qualify as "unconstitutional".

Are you ready for arbitrary, inconsistent and legally dubious rulings?

Spoiler:

Quote

01-29-2017 , 11:16 PM

#52

iamnotawerewolf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 31,482

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

2. Years until a Trump executive order is struck down as unconstitutional

Name	##
pwnsall	0.547945205
aarondk56	1
IANAWW	1
JMurder3	1
King of NYC	1
dark magus	2
nails	2
Xander Biscuits	2
accobra kid	2.33
Jedi	3
lilrascal	5

I'll be honest, I don't really know what process needs to be followed for this category to be met

Shoulda been "days" (lol!?!) unless you're waiting for SCOTUS

Quote

02-04-2017 , 12:11 PM

#53

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf

Shoulda been "days" (lol!?!) unless you're waiting for SCOTUS

I'm confident that this won't be the first question that proves poorly defined, but yup, I'm thinking that this is going to be <3 weeks.

Quote

03-17-2017 , 06:37 PM

#54

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

2. Years until a Trump executive order is struck down as unconstitutional

Name	##
BookerW	0.350
pwnsall	0.547945205
aarondk56	1
IANAWW	1
JMurder3	1
King of NYC	1
dark magus	2
nails	2
Xander Biscuits	2
accobra kid	2.33
Jedi	3
lilrascal	5

I'll be honest, I don't really know what process needs to be followed for this category to be met

What's the usual Guesstimania scoring system? Just ranking? I guess it's time to call this one.

Answer	<1 month?	Points
BookerW	0.350	1
pwnsall	0.547945205	2
aarondk56	1	3
IANAWW	1	3
JMurder3	1	3
King of NYC	1	3
dark magus	2	7
nails	2	7
Xander Biscuits	2	7
accobra kid	2.33	8
Jedi	3	9
lilrascal	5	10

Quote

03-17-2017 , 06:42 PM

#55

rtspurs

Stats Amore

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 20,684

Its at your discretion; generally they use a calculation to score on how close to the correct answer you were I think

Quote

03-17-2017 , 06:57 PM

#56

DarkMagus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 8,391

Oh yeah this is a thing

I think generally it's ranked. Some people rank based on ratio with the correct answer, some on absolute difference, it's up to the mod

Quote

03-17-2017 , 06:57 PM

#57

xander biscuits

watching a movie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 40,163

logarithms

Quote

03-18-2017 , 06:02 PM

#58

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by xander biscuits

logarithms

I was hoping you weren't going to say that.

Quote

03-18-2017 , 06:06 PM

#59

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Eff it, I'm gonna go with ranks, based on some logarithm process I'll work out when there are people too high and too low. Here everyone is over so it doesn't matter.

Quote

03-18-2017 , 06:07 PM

#60

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Question 7(maybe)

Answer	<1 month?	Points
BookerW	0.350	1
pwnsall	0.547945205	2
aarondk56	1	4.5
IANAWW	1	4.5
JMurder3	1	4.5
King of NYC	1	4.5
dark magus	2	8
nails	2	8
Xander Biscuits	2	8
accobra kid	2.33	10
Jedi	3	11
lilrascal	5	12

Quote

03-18-2017 , 07:12 PM

#61

xander biscuits

watching a movie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 40,163

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

Eff it, I'm gonna go with ranks, based on some logarithm process I'll work out when there are people too high and too low. Here everyone is over so it doesn't matter.

log_{actual answer}(guessed answer)

or

log_{guessed answer}(actual answer)

is the way to do it.

Just make sure that the base is the lower of the 2 numbers.

Quote

03-18-2017 , 07:16 PM

#62

xander biscuits

watching a movie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 40,163

oh, and fix your Booby Trap Sheep entry

Quote

03-19-2017 , 07:41 AM

#63

DarkMagus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 8,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by xander biscuits

log_{actual answer}(guessed answer)

or

log_{guessed answer}(actual answer)

is the way to do it.

Just make sure that the base is the lower of the 2 numbers.

This formula makes no sense. If someone guesses 1 their score is undefined. If they guess a number below 1 they get negative points.

If you want to use logarithms you should do: abs(log(guess) - log(correct))

Although if you're going to score by ranking, just use ratios, since it will give the same rankings as logarithms.

Last edited by DarkMagus; 03-19-2017 at 07:47 AM.

Quote

03-19-2017 , 07:48 AM

#64

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkMagus

No way man, it should be abs(log(actual/guess))

Quote

03-19-2017 , 07:59 AM

#65

DarkMagus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 8,391

abs(log(actual^1/sqrt(guess^2)) + 0)

Quote

03-19-2017 , 08:54 AM

#66

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote

03-19-2017 , 10:38 AM

#67

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 66,211

so when was it ruled to have first been struck down

Quote

03-19-2017 , 02:22 PM

#68

xander biscuits

watching a movie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 40,163

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkMagus

answers of 1 or below rarely are an issue in a game of guestamania

Quote

03-19-2017 , 02:28 PM

#69

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by pwnsall

so when was it ruled to have first been struck down

Whenever the 9th circuit struck it down, I think. Since that was never overturned and the ban was then Abandoned, that's the relevant ruling.

Quote

03-19-2017 , 05:34 PM

#70

DarkMagus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 8,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by xander biscuits

answers of 1 or below rarely are an issue in a game of guestamania

it's still a horrible misuse of logarithms :P

Quote

04-13-2017 , 04:19 PM

#71

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

10. %age of the first round vote that Marine Le Pen gains in the first round of the French presidential elections

Name	Answer
pwnsall	11%
aarondk56	20%
IANAWW	20%
accobra kid	26.25%
dark magus	26.80%
King of NYC	27%
Xander Biscuits	29%
nails	31%
JMurder3	32%
lilrascal	37%
Jedi	42%

I was in Paris when Le Pen's father got into the runoff about 10 years ago and was disturbed from some extracurricular activities by the sound of french people in the streets. Then I went to a cafe, had a bottle of wine and managed to pay a random passerby rather than the waiter, and had a huge row with the bartender.

10 days to this round revealing. Le Pen currently polling somewhere between 20% and 24%

EDIT: thinking about it, I might go with the arbitrary and capricious ranking by absolute difference for this one. If the right answer is 20, no way is 10 as good an answer as 40.

Quote

04-14-2017 , 11:48 AM

#72

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 66,211

11 is better than 10

Quote

04-24-2017 , 05:50 AM

#73

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

NameAnswer

pwnsall11%

aarondk5620%

IANAWW20%

Actual21.53%

accobra kid26.25%

dark magus26.80%

King of NYC27%

Xander Biscuits29%

nails31%

JMurder332%

lilrascal37%

Jedi42%

Scores to come later.

Quote

04-24-2017 , 06:41 AM

#74

Booker Wolfbox

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 38,477

Quote

04-24-2017 , 08:13 AM

#75

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by Booker Wolfbox

Pretty sure you're in the official spreadsheet, so fret ye not.

Quote

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